Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post

Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post! This series will highlight the trading tools we have for our DLF subscribers. We’ll use the DLF Trade Finder to look at actual trades that took place in dynasty leagues hosted on myfantasyleague.com, check-in with the DLF Trade Analyzer to see what it thinks and then discuss those deals.

One caveat to mention is that the Trade Analyzer value of a player changes constantly, so all values discussed were at the time of writing. If you have a trade you’d like addressed in this space, please reach out to @MattPriceFF on Twitter!

Calvin Ridley, WR ATL

Ridley has gone from a dynasty darling everyone was excited about after the 2021 season to a player we aren’t even sure will be a player in the NFL ever again. His ADP has fallen from WR8 (17th overall) one year ago to WR20 (41st overall) in DLF’s most recent ADP.

This fall from grace is most likely due to the uncertainty surrounding his playing status, but other factors are at play. Many were concerned he wouldn’t be as productive once he became a true WR1 who draws most of the defensive attention. If you take a look at the DLF player splits app, you’ll discover that in seven games without Julio Jones on the field, Ridley was actually more productive than in the eight games Jones played in 2020. Except for touchdowns, which fell from 0.8 per game to 0.4 per game, Ridley’s numbers rose across the board when Jones missed time.

In the five games Ridley played in 2022, things just weren’t the same in terms of his fantasy production. He averaged only 14.2 points per game, had zero top-12 performances, one top-24 finish, two top-36 finishes, and finished as the WR59 overall in week one. I think it’s tough to draw any conclusions from his play in 2021, given his need to take a mental health break after week seven. We know what Ridley is capable of when he is completely healthy, including his mental state. That said, dynasty managers are clearly concerned about his value going forward.

Let’s take a look at some recent trades.

I think it’s the AJ Brown side pretty easily in the first trade. Once we know Ridley will be on the field in week one of the 2022 season, then maybe it’s a discussion, but at this point, you take the top-five dynasty wide receiver, and you don’t look back.

The second trade depends on where that pick falls. If it’s somewhere in the 1.10-1.12 range, I’m likely willing to take the chance Ridley will return and be his old self. If it’s in the top half of the first round, then I’ll stick with the pick. Let’s see what the trade analyzer has to say.

The analyzer agrees with me here. When you have a chance at a blue-chip player like Brown, you take it unless the value is heavily on the other side.

The trade robots value Ridley more than a mid-first-round pick. We’ll have to agree to disagree there, as there is just too much risk for me to take that leap right now without knowing Ridley’s plans and which rookie might be available in the middle of the first round of 2022 rookie drafts. If I were going to make this deal, I’d be waiting until it’s closer to my draft.

Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

I’ve been one of Kupp’s biggest fans since before he was drafted. His ability to be a difference-maker from the slot was evident to me from the first time I watched his film at Eastern Washington. As much as I liked him from day one, I could have never predicted the kind of NFL success he had in 2021. The season he put together was historic, coming just 53 yards short of becoming the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history.

The problem with Kupp in dynasty circles is that he’ll be turning 29 in June, and we all know what happens to the dynasty value of wide receivers who are close to 30. It will be interesting to see how he is valued especially as we enter the rookie fever section of the dynasty calendar. From a production standpoint, I don’t think we have anything to worry about for the next two to three seasons, but his trade value could fall off a cliff as early as the following off-season.

As recently as August, you could have drafted Kupp in the sixth or seventh round. Now he’ll cost you a second-round startup pick at a minimum. I imagine his status as the dynasty WR10 will fall the deeper we get into the off-season and rise again as we get closer to the 2022 season. If I’m strictly playing the value game, it’s probably time to cash out on Kupp, but let’s see if he’s bringing the kind of return that a top-ten wide receiver should.

If the first trade was in a superflex league, then I think you could make an argument for the Zach Wilson side, but we can see in the league settings that this is a one quarterback league. Even in superflex, this would be a questionable trade. In 1QB, this isn’t close. It’s Kupp in a landslide.

The second deal, on the other hand, is precisely the kind of deal you should be looking for if you are trying to move Kupp. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a young receiver trending in the right direction, and the additional picks will only increase in value between now and the rookie draft. I value Kupp more than two random first-round picks, but adding St. Brown evens this up and pushes it over the top for a rebuilding team.

All I can really say here is that I hope whoever moved Kupp for Wilson is a huge Jets fan or that this is a league converting to superflex in the near future.

I don’t think it’s as big of a win for the package side as the trade analyzer does, but as I said before, this is exactly the kind of deal you should be looking for if you are in the business of trading away Kupp. A promising young player and a couple of first-round lottery tickets ease the sting of losing a player who can put up the kind of numbers Kupp can give you every week.

That will do it for this edition of the Dynasty Trading Post! Let us know what you think of these trades and how the trade analyzer values the pieces. Remember, the trade analyzer is but one tool in your dynasty toolkit. In the end, it’s up to you to pull the trigger on a trade. If you’d like a specific player or trade run through this process, please don’t hesitate to reach out!