The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so. The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax. Wait. That’s completely incorrect. The off-season is when we refine our strategies, look back at the past year, the year to come, and everything in between.
If you missed the last mailbag, you can find that here. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help. Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF Mailbag. Let’s dig in!
How high of a 2022 pick do you want in return for Aaron Jones in SF?
— Mike Gray (@Mik3Gray) January 26, 2022
Let’s get into one of my favorite topics, trading! Mike asks how high of a rookie pick would I want in return for Aaron Jones in a superflex league. At the end of the day, what I would want in return and what I would actually accept are two different things. I’d want at least a 1.06-1.09 2022 rookie pick, but the market dictates if that’s possible. To get a feel for the market, using the DFL Dynasty Trade Finder, I found only two trades that involve Aaron Jones and 2022 first-round rookie picks.
In the below trade, Jones and a 2022 third were traded away for what appears to be a late 2022 first-round draft pick.
This trade was Jones for the 1.10 (it’s a 10-team league), a 2022 fourth and Wayne Gallman.
While both of these trades might feel like you’re giving up Jones for a song, I would probably take the picks in both. Jones will play a majority of 2022 in his age-27 season, at least a year past when most running backs fall off the age cliff. AJ Dillon already ate into his rushing workload last year, and Dillon has shown to be a competent receiver with 34 receptions on 37 targets last year.
In short, Jones is a declining asset, who will provide declining production in the future. Before accepting any 2022 first-rounder though, I would attempt to pivot to 2023’s much more heralded class. Think about adding a 2022 second-rounder (or a player of equal value) to Jones for a random 2023 first-round pick. The pick will only continue to appreciate in value over the next 14 months.
When it comes to trading, what’s the best trade strategy at this time of year when the season is nearly over? Trading for picks isn’t necessarily ripe right now, so what is and who is a good target to go after?
— Jeff Haseley (@JeffHaseley) January 26, 2022
Jeff continues this week’s theme with a question regarding trades. Trading for upcoming rookie picks is usually a failing strategy when the NFL Draft is just two months away. Not to say it’s impossible though. If you have a player on your roster who the community is significantly higher on than you are, say Gabriel Davis, you could flip him for a 2022 rookie pick.
And just because you, as a highly intelligent, highly informed DLF reader, already know that the 2023 class is stacked, doesn’t mean everyone in your league is in the know as well. Still try to get 2023 picks in trades, even second-rounders.
When not stalking rookie picks, I like to trade for players who underperformed based on expectations this past season. One of the players I’m targeting is Chase Claypool. He averaged (slightly) more targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game in 2021 compared to his 2020 season. The cause of his decreased fantasy scoring (13.4 points per game in 2020 to 11.1 in 2021) was due to touchdown regression. He had 11 total touchdowns in his rookie year and just two last season. With any regression in 2022 (not to mention improved quarterback play), Claypool would be in line for a nice bounce-back season. In general, look for players who the market is lower on than you are and make offers for those players.
Dynasty – Burrow or Herbert?
— Steamin’Beaman (@WillieBeamanDFF) January 27, 2022
Since no human can live on trades alone, I guess I could tackle a non-trade-related question: Joe Burrow versus Justin Herbert.
Both quarterbacks are elite. Herbert finished as a QB1 in 12 of 17 games (70.5) played last year, while Burrow did so in 11 of 16 games (68.8%), but Herbert is just a tier above Burrow. Herbert outscored Burrow by 2.8 fantasy points per game in 2021, finishing as the QB2 compared to Burrow’s QB9 (PPG) finish.
What I find most impressive is that Herbert was able to produce at an elite level with lesser pass-catching weapons than Burrow. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler are certainly good, but they don’t really don’t compare to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. Though the Chargers could lose Williams this off-season, it’s almost certain that the Bengals lose at least one of Boyd or Higgins after the 2023 season, when both players are free agents. Replacing Mike Williams would be a lot easier than replacing Higgins.
Considering the Bengals also need to re-sign Chase after the 2024 season, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to afford to keep both Chase and Higgins long-term, especially when you consider they’ll also need to re-sign Burrow when his rookie deal expires.
There’s also the additional fantasy production that Herbert provides on the ground: 6.75 rushing yards, and 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game compared to 0.19 for Burrow. Yes, their numbers are incredibly close, but if I’m forced to choose between two elite options, I’m going to lean Herbert. All that said, it’s not as if their values are wildly divergent. If I roster Herbert and was offered Burrow plus a WR2 or a late first-round rookie pick, I would likely slam that accept button.
Give me some hope on Miles Sanders, any reason to believe he can be an RB1 at any point?
— Mike (@DaddysHomeFF) January 26, 2022
Sanders has been able to put up elite rushing production (on limited carries) in his first three seasons.
With his 131 rushing yards Tuesday, Miles Sanders became the 10th running back in NFL history to rush for 700 or more yards with at least a 4.5 average in each of his first three seasons.
Among the others are Hall of Famers Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Earl Campbell & Jim Brown.
— Reuben Frank (@RoobNBCS) December 23, 2021
Seriously, he’s been super efficient as Reuben Frank has made a point to note, repeatedly. There are several issues that preclude Sanders from ever reaching RB1 status. In order to be a top-12 running back, you either need elite rushing volume, receiving volume, or touchdowns. Sanders brings none of those things to the table. He’s seen his targets drop from 3.9 in his rookie year to 2.8 last year, and has had only one season where he’s averaged more than 11.5 rushing attempts per game, while never scoring more than six total touchdowns in any season. And though he’s efficient as a runner, as a fantasy player, not so much. He finished as the RB46 in fantasy points per opportunity last year, after finishing 33rd in 2020.
Usage is not the only concern. There’s also his inability to stay healthy, and a penchant for fumbling. Sanders lost goal-line work to both Boston Scott and Jordan Howard last year, and third-down work to Kenneth Gainwell. Sanders has been through two coaching staffs during his first three seasons in Philadelphia, and neither ever gave us any reason to believe they envision Sanders will ever be a bell-cow.
That’s it for this week. Thank you for reading, thank you for the questions. Feel free to reach out to me anytime on Twitter @ShaneIsTheWorst.
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