2022 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Sam Howell, QB North Carolina
The 2022 quarterback draft class has been widely panned for months. You can scan numerous mock drafts and fail to find a quarterback settling within the top ten. There are no blue-chip prospects, which could lead to increased demand on the trade market with names like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson being floated as potential candidates to be on the move.
Of course, we are likely to see someone from this class succeed. It is pretty rare for an entire group of players at the quarterback position to flop. Once considered a possible number one overall pick, Sam Howell has seen his stock drop, though he still possesses many plus traits which will intrigue NFL evaluators.
AS A RECRUIT
Courtesy of 247 Sports.
A long-time Florida State commit, Howell reneged from his pledge following the departure of offensive coordinator Walt Bell. Howell was one of the top quarterbacks in his cycle, and his commitment to Mack Brown’s North Carolina program looks wise in retrospect. The Seminoles are still fighting their battle back to respectability, while Howell stepped in immediately and starred for the Tar Heels.
The popular comparison for Howell has been Baker Mayfield, and it is the player 247’s Charles Power referenced when writing Howell’s scouting report. The mere mention of Mayfield is sure to turn many off from Howell, though from a trait’s perspective, there is a lot to like about both Mayfield and Howell. Howell’s stocky build and arm talent made him a natural fit to contribute early, and he fit the bill as one of the top quarterbacks in the 2019 cycle.
COLLEGIATE CAREER
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Howell was a star right out of the gate, tossing 38 touchdowns as a true freshman and immediately positioning himself to be a future first-round selection. He built on his strong campaign by adding more efficiency as a sophomore, leading the Tar Heels to the Orange Bowl. In many ways, his junior season was his worst. This was largely due to a depleted supporting cast. The Tar Heels lost both Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome to the NFL, and while Josh Downs was fantastic as a sophomore, North Carolina lacked the depth to assist Howell in reaching 2020 heights, specifically along the offensive line.
Howell’s rushing line as a junior stands out. Despite the gaudy numbers, he does not profile as a premier rushing quarterback. Howell certainly has adequate athleticism and can move around the pocket and create plays on the move, but the heavy work as a runner was mostly due to necessity and not dynamism. He will chip in a few rushing yards and touchdowns here and there but don’t expect him to look like Jalen Hurts on the field.
ATHLETIC PROFILE
Howell is not going to set the field ablaze with his speed, but he has functional athleticism. The ability to move his feet in the pocket along with his burly frame and incredible toughness make him a threat to pick up yards when plays break down.
His top physical trait is his frame. At about 225 pounds, he can absorb hits and take the fight to a defender. He can create velocity and dot the field with big-time throws. He may lack a true trump trait athletically, but he does a lot of things at an above-average level. He clocked in with a 4.99-second 40-yard dash at 2018’s The Opening, a number that doesn’t jump off the page but is a fine number for a high schooler carrying 220 plus pounds. You’d figure three years of physical development will allow Howell to post credible test numbers.
STRENGTHS
- His stout frame allows to him eschew weak tackle attempts and fight for additional yardage.
- He has the requisite arm strength to make throws outside the numbers.
- Can make plays out of structure.
- Highly competitive nature serves him well inside and outside of the pocket.
Weaknesses
- North Carolina’s simplistic passing offense did not ask too much of him pre-snap.
- His compete level can lead to him playing hero ball in situations where it is unnecessary.
draft value
Image from NFL Mock Draft Database.
Howell routinely gets mocked in the first round, though it is clear few are sold on him crashing the top ten. Quarterbacks tend to get pushed up the board as the draft grows closer, and I would imagine the same happens with Howell. The demand is just too great to let a productive quarterback with a quality toolkit like Howell fall too far.
The quarterback hierarchy should become clearer as the off-season process unfolds. Howell is currently fighting Matt Corral and Kenny Pickett for the top quarterback slot, though the order of the trio varies depending on personal preference. The guess is Howell lands in round one, though more in the Mac Jones range as opposed to the top ten.
dynasty value
It is rare for non-elite quarterback prospects to get much love in single quarterback leagues, and Howell figures to be no different. A ceiling of the second round is likely as managers load up on runners or take advantage of a deep receiver class. There’s just not much room to sneak into round one unless you’re a Trevor Lawrence type of talent.
Of course, superflex managers will be interested in Howell. He profiles as a long-term starter and someone who can provide consistent value as a QB2. Those are not the credentials that get you excited, but it has value given how critical quarterback depth can be in superflex leagues.
Ultimately, Howell’s landing spot could be crucial in assessing whether he is QB1 in rookie drafts of QB4. A popular spot is Pittsburgh, which would be an ideal location given their weapons. On the flip side, Washington and Detroit loom as potential destinations and neither will fire up the hype train for Howell. The young quarterback crop in the NFL is fantastic. Those are tier one assets, rarified air which Howell will not hit. But the second tier is wide open with players aging out or proving to be busts. Howell could certainly push to be a top 15 dynasty QB if he starts his career hot.
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