2022 Dynasty Capsule: Seattle Seahawks
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson (ADP = 109.67, QB12)
Wilson might be the most interesting dynasty asset on the Seahawks, given the uncertainty surrounding him. At this point, it seems like the team will move forward with Pete Carroll as their head coach and John Schneider as their general manager, sticking with the same pair they’ve had since 2010. As we all know, Wilson and the Seahawks have had tension surrounding the nature of their offensive play calling, specifically that Wilson wants to throw the ball more while Carroll prefers a run-heavy approach.
Right now, I would likely prefer a change of scenery for Wilson’s dynasty value. But either way, QB12 seems like a fair price. It’s challenging to evaluate quarterbacks in 1QB dynasty leagues, but I rate Wilson as my QB11 and an early-third round startup pick in superflex leagues. He slides in similarly in DLF’s January superflex ADP, at QB12 and 20.5 overall. So based on my price, I find his spot among quarterbacks to be about right, although he’s a bit high in overall rankings for me.
RUNNING BACK
Rashaad Penny (ADP = 91.33, RB31)
There’s no denying what Penny did at the end of the 2021 season.
Charts courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
After three and a half years of irrelevance, Penny suddenly emerged in week 13. He claimed the starting job moving forward after outperforming Adrian Peterson that week, and he began a fantastic run over the final five weeks. He finished with 19.5 or more PPR points in four of those five games and as a fantasy RB1 in those four strong performances. Even though he saw little receiving usage, he still dominated among running backs in that period.
As you can see, Penny led the league in rushing yards across that five-game stretch, and he was the top overall fantasy running back as well.
However, Penny is an uncertain dynasty asset right now. He recently completed his rookie contract, and the Seahawks failed to exercise his fifth-year option, making him a free agent this off-season. In addition, the Seahawks have Chris Carson under contract for 2022, although he has significant health concerns with his neck injury. I can’t imagine that the Seahawks trust Carson to return as their starter, so they could easily re-sign Penny as their starter with Carson as a backup if he’s healthy.
With that said, I have little to no interest in Penny at his current ADP, as he turns 26 in February, and he has five good games in a four-year career in the NFL. I pretty much always try to sell running backs like Penny after they emerge, especially if I can acquire any first-round pick in exchange. Also, Penny carries massive risk, as Carson could return to health and capture significant work, or he could land on another team that doesn’t have the same emphasis on the run.
Chris Carson (ADP = 129.83, RB40)
Unfortunately, it’s impossible to discuss Carson’s dynasty value because it’s unclear if he will ever return to the NFL after his neck injury. He only played four games in 2021, and the Seahawks consistently downplayed his injury before placing him on injured reserve. The Seahawks can save $3.425 million by releasing Carson this off-season, and I expect them to do just that if he’s not fully healthy. So for dynasty purposes, don’t count Carson as an asset and treat him as a pleasant surprise if he actually does return and produce. Of course, then, his current price is way too high.
Travis Homer (ADP = 234.83, RB85)
Beyond Penny and Carson, none of the other Seahawks’ running backs have any dynasty value. Homer has been on the team for three years after being a sixth-rounder in the 2019 NFL Draft, and he is simply a special-teamer and occasional passing-downs back. He has no dynasty value whatsoever.
DeeJay Dallas (ADP = 237.67, RB89)
Ironically, Dallas was Homer’s teammate at Miami, and I had more expectations for him going into the NFL. Dallas was a fourth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, so I believed that the Seahawks would find a way to involve him in the offense. However, they signed players like Alex Collins and Adrian Peterson this year, even though Dallas was healthy and dressed for all 17 games. As a result, it seems like Dallas will never rise beyond the RB3 spot on this depth chart, giving him no dynasty value.
Alex Collins (ADP = NR)
Collins actually finished second on the team in carries behind Penny. However, unlike Penny, Collins was inefficient on his carries, gaining only 411 yards on his 108 carries for 3.8 YPC. The Seahawks made him a healthy scratch down the stretch after Penny took over, signaling that he’s not part of their plans. Like Homer and Dallas, Collins is not worth a dynasty roster spot.
WIDE RECEIVER
DK Metcalf (ADP = 14.5, WR7)
If Metcalf still had his old value, I might respond differently in this section. However, it seems like things finally changed this month.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
Metcalf fell out of the top ten in DLF’s ADP data for the first time since the 2020 season, settling in at WR7 and 14.5. Therefore, dynasty managers no longer need to pay a top-three wide receiver price to acquire Metcalf, changing the entire dynamic of his value.
I think it’s essential to look at Metcalf’s 2021 numbers in the context of the rest of his career to discuss his value further.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He had the same number of targets in 2021 as 2020, although he played one additional game. But Geno Smith started three games and played significant time in another, so it’s fair to say Metcalf had about equal opportunity in both years. The main difference is that he did so much less on those targets, dropping eight receptions and a whopping 336 yards. Luckily, he added two additional receiving touchdowns to save his fantasy value, finishing as the WR15 overall and WR24 in fantasy PPG.
Since Metcalf only turned 24 in December, I haven’t quit on him whatsoever. I don’t believe he forgot how to play football, or the Seahawks don’t want to make him the centerpiece of their offense. In fact, I think he’s still the same player who should have a star career ahead of him. Therefore, I want to use the DLF Trade Finder to look at some recent deals involving Metcalf to see if he’s buyable.
Here are two trades that I would smash accept on the Metcalf side. Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones represent two aging running back assets in the first deal, and Dalton Schultz is a mid-range TE1 at best. I don’t even need the first-round pick to make this trade. Similarly, the second deal is also an easy trade to make. I love Austin Ekeler, but he turns 27 this off-season. If I can turn back the age clock and go to Metcalf, I’m doing it all day.
Tyler Lockett (ADP = 66.17, WR32)
I have far less to say about Lockett than his counterpart Metcalf. The Seahawks signed him to a four-year, $69 million extension before the 2021 season, committing to him long-term. Based on the dead cap hits, he will remain in Seattle through at least 2023 for sure, and possibly even 2024. Considering that he’s already 29 and turns 30 in September, that means that he will play the remainder of his dynasty-relevant career in Seattle.
Putting aside Lockett’s week-to-week inconsistency, he’s been remarkably reliable as a fantasy wide receiver every year for the past four seasons.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Lockett emerged in 2018 after Doug Baldwin fell off. Since then, he finished as a high-end WR2 in three of four seasons with a WR8 finish in 2020 as the outlier.
However, I have significant concerns that Lockett’s fantasy value depends on Wilson, who may leave the team this off-season. It’s hard to evaluate that, though, as Lockett has only played three career games with any other quarterback, which is a tiny sample size. Either way, I tend to prefer younger players, and Lockett comes with risk, so I won’t draft him at his WR32 ADP or anywhere near that.
D’Wayne Eskridge (ADP = 213.67, WR91)
I never understood the Eskridge selection, especially as the Seahawks signed Lockett to a massive extension before making the pick in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Moreover, he struggled with injuries in his rookie year, limiting him only to spot duty.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He had only ten catches for 64 yards and a touchdown and four rushes for 59 yards, finishing eighth on the team in receptions. Considering that Metcalf and Lockett are locked in as the top-two receivers here, and Eskridge turns 25 in May, he is a hard avoid for me in dynasty leagues. I’ll look for stashes on a more fantasy-friendly offense.
TIGHT END
Gerald Everett (ADP = 201.5, TE25)
Everett was just okay in 2021. He caught 48 of 63 targets for 478 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the TE20 with 8.12 fantasy PPG. The Seahawks signed him in free agency to a one-year, $6 million contract, and he returned about fair value on that deal.
But at this point, I think it’s time to move past Everett as a dynasty asset. I doubt he commands much interest on the free agency market, either from the Seahawks or another team. He might see a bit of streaming appeal from time to time given the nature of the tight end position, but that’s it.
Will Dissly (ADP = NR)
I’ve always had a soft spot for Dissly, but he hasn’t done much in a couple of years.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He emerged out of nowhere in 2018, as most dynasty analysts thought of him as more of a blocker. But, unfortunately, he suffered a devastating patellar tendon injury that year, cutting his breakout campaign short.
Then, in 2019, he almost immediately came back to relevance, improving on his 2018 numbers and beating the odds when returning from that injury. However, he again found terrible injury luck, as he tore his Achilles tendon after only six games. While he beat the odds again and played 31 of 33 games in 2020 and 2021, he never saw fantasy relevance again. Jacob Hollister and Greg Olsen played ahead of him in 2020, and Everett was the clear starter in 2021. Dissly is an unrestricted free agent this year, and while he may draw interest on a cheap deal, he isn’t worth holding in dynasty leagues.
Colby Parkinson (ADP = NR)
I just wanted to give Parkinson a cursory mention at the bottom of the article. The Seahawks spent a fourth-round pick on him in the 2020 NFL Draft, and Everett and Dissly are both free agents. No other tight ends recorded any offensive statistics for the Seahawks in 2021, so Parkinson should at least have a chance at playing time. He recently turned 23, making him at least a name to watch in deep tight end premium leagues. I’d rather stash Parkinson over Dissly at this point.
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