2022 Dynasty Capsule: San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Mueller

The San Francisco 49ers pulled off a rollercoaster win against the Dallas Cowboys before shocking the Green Bay Packers on the road to advance to the NFL Championship game.

For all of the question marks entering the season – quarterback controversy, secondary concerns, major health and medical staff questions, offensive line concerns – the 49ers season wound up being a success, as they finished 10-7 and third in the NFC West to capture a Wild Card spot in the last week of the regular season.

The 49ers’ offense generated 119 explosive plays over the season, led by the remarkably healthy dual-threat Deebo Samuel, rookie running back Elijah Mitchell, and top talent tight end George Kittle. The team passed a total of 514 attempts while rushing a total of 499 attempts. They scored over 20 points in 12 of 17 games. The 2022 season will likely look very different with Trey Lance at the helm.

Let’s dig in.

QUARTERBACK

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Trey Lance (ADP = 94.17, QB9)

The key question for the 49ers’ offense will be what happens at the quarterback position. While a low likelihood, there is a slim chance that the team opts to keep Jimmy Garoppolo on his $26.9 million final contract year, particularly if he goes and wins a Super Bowl for the team. It would be stunning considering the team can trade him away or accept the dead cap of only $1,400,000, saving over 25 million dollars to allocate to other positions of need such as cornerback or offensive line.

The most likely scenario is that Garoppolo is traded and Lance takes over in 2022. In the two games in which Lance started this year, the 49ers threw it 29 and 23 times, roughly in line with Garoppolo’s typical games. One key difference between the two is that the QB position (Lance) received 16 and then eight rushing attempts. In game one, they came mostly by design, but his rushing upside could be a huge boost to his overall fantasy production. I believe this is baked into his ADP as the dynasty QB9.

Jimmy Garoppolo (ADP = 205.50, QB24)

As mentioned above, there is a small likelihood that the 49ers stick with Garoppolo going into 2022. He has a bloated one-year contract that could be spent on other position needs. For 2021, he was able to put up QB15 fantasy points on average across 14 starts (16.05 points per game), although that does not quite tell the whole story.

While being QB15 on the year, he also only had two games scoring over 20 points: 27.28 in week eight and 20.14 in week 14, in standard scoring. He has been a steady but uninspiring fantasy producer in Kyle Shanahan’s system, which has been known to be QB-friendly. How will he produce outside of Shanahan’s scheme? Garoppolo might be worth adding as a cheap QB2 and I expect him to start somewhere next year given the current QB landscape.

RUNNING BACK

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Elijah Mitchell (ADP = 33.50, RB14)

Mitchell has been quite the debated running back in fantasy for 2022. Many are holding on to the fact that a certain running back was drafted three rounds prior to Mitchell, however it has been quite evident that Kyle Shanahan prefers Mitchell as his primary running back.

It is well documented that Shanahan does not prefer to throw a rookie player into the fire, but he certainly did so with his speedy new weapon. Mitchell saw over 18 carries in eight of his eleven starts, including receiving 21 and 21 carries in two games after returning from an MCL sprain. Shanahan was not hesitant one bit to throw the rookie back into the lead role, despite Jeff Wilson Jr performing well in his place.

Particularly in a points-per-carry league, Mitchell is a buy at cost.

Trey Sermon (ADP = 146.50, RB48)

Sermon still has his fans out there, likely holding on to the fact that he received third-round draft capital. While he received over ten touches in three games, he was largely underwhelming outside of one game against Seattle. He was also used on only special teams for the majority of games he was active in.

Some will tell you that next year he will ascend beyond Mitchell due to draft capital, but I am not buying it. Mitchell proved himself time and time again and was relied upon even after being limited by a knee injury. Let someone else draft Sermon.

WIDE RECEIVER

Deebo Samuel (ADP = 17.50, WR9)

Talk about dynasty value turn-around. Samuel shifted the narrative from being an injury-prone, over-drafted wide receiver who was picked before AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, to being arguably the best wide receiver and all-around offensive weapon from his draft class. Not only did he earn 1,405 receiving yards and 77 receptions on 121 targets, but he turned into an elite rushing weapon with 59 attempts, 365 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was easily the team’s MVP this year.

Last off-season, there was smoke about Samuel revamping his entire conditioning routine and changing his diet habits. While he dealt with multiple soft tissue injuries (calf, groin strains), he only missed one game, a huge improvement from 2020. Can he sustain his style of play with this volume despite the past injury history? Time will tell, but if he is able to produce at this elite level with minimal volume then he will certainly pay off at his current price tag.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP = 53.00, WR26)

Once Aiyuk got going from weeks 9-17, he finished as the WR21 with 13.0 fantasy points per game. He outscored multiple wide receivers who are being drafted over him, including DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy, and AJ Brown. After exiting the doghouse, he only started one game with Trey Lance, producing four receptions for 94 yards on six targets, 13.4 fantasy points.

The key question will be how Aiyuk is utilized once Lance is fully unleashed. There is an argument that this entire offense will be opened up, with Lance taking advantage of Aiyuk’s full skillset as a deep-threat and high-level route runner. It is likely a coin flip as to whether he pays off at his ADP, but I am a believer in his talent.

Jauan Jennings (ADP = 224.17, WR98)

Jennings has fit the WR3 role perfectly for the 49ers, a much-needed fit after Kendrick Bourne left the team. Jennings is unlikely to be consistently fantasy-relevant, but fills in as a big target (6’3”, 212 lbs) who consistently made key receptions on third down to convert and keep drives alive down the stretch. Despite his cheap cost to the team and his steady play, I would not be surprised if the 49ers drafted another wide receiver.

TIGHT END

George Kittle (ADP = 38.33, TE3)

Kittle is an interesting play in dynasty. He is arguably one of the best receiving tight ends with strong hands and good contested catch ability, and indisputably the best tight end in yards after the catch and breaking tackles. The problem? Kittle is priced as the overall TE3 and despite the above strengths, one factor that could limit his fantasy upside is that he is one of the best run and pass blockers in the game.

His strength as a blocker is a weakness for fantasy, as this can limit his overall routes run on any given game day. The other concern is that when he did run plenty of routes with Lance at the helm, he only produced one catch for 29 yards on two targets. Will he be a decoy? Will his elite blocking skillset limit his fantasy upside on a weekly basis? Will he continue to deal with injuries?

I am a huge fan of Kittle, however I cannot knock any argument for trading him away at cost.

jeff mueller
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2022 Dynasty Capsule: San Francisco 49ers