The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.Â
However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.
Let’s jump into this week’s first question!
Alejandro Galván – Ezekiel Elliott and a third or Chris Godwin?
I purposely picked this question out to highlight the DLF Trade Analyzer.
As you can see, the analyzer values Godwin above Elliott by a good amount, which I agree with completely. Even with a third-round pick added, the Godwin side still comes out clearly on top.
For me, these values make sense, even with Godwin coming off a torn ACL. Godwin is six months younger than Elliott, and he plays wide receiver versus running back. Given Elliott’s late-season struggles this year, I would look for any way to get him off my dynasty roster. Pivoting to a down asset like Godwin is a great way to do that.
Gainjosh – Where are you guys at with Baker Mayfield? 2QB league.
Unfortunately, I believe Baker Mayfield is not the Browns’ answer and he doesn’t deserve to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
I don’t see any positive takeaways from these numbers – 92 touchdowns compared to 56 interceptions is not impressive in today’s NFL, and a 61.6% completion rate is also poor. He’s declined in passing yards per game every year, falling to an unacceptable 215 yards per game this year. Additionally, the Browns seem to want a run-heavy offense under Kevin Stefanski, whether they’re winning as they did in 2020 or losing as they were this year.
Worse than the passing numbers, Mayfield represents a double whammy in fantasy football due to his lack of rushing upside. He has between 131 and 165 rushing yards in each of his four seasons, with five total rushing touchdowns. Therefore, he provides little weekly upside for fantasy managers.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, Mayfield has just five top-five games in his career, and he’s finished 50% of his contests in QB2 range. But worst of all, he has essentially as many QB3 weeks as QB1 weeks, killing fantasy managers far too often. Overall, then, Mayfield is a hard avoid for me in all formats. If he’s on your superflex or 2QB dynasty team, don’t count him as a solid quarterback when evaluating your roster.
Akash Patel – ​Thoughts on Rashaad Penny? Early second or him?
The DLF Trade Analyzer prefers an early second-round rookie pick over Penny, even in a 1QB format.
For me, it’s tough ever to buy someone like Penny, an older running back who broke out late in his career after failing earlier on. Penny is an impending free agent, although I expect the Seahawks to try and retain him. I certainly wouldn’t want him on a new team, so that would be a good result for his dynasty value. However, he turns 26 in February, so he’s already on the opposite side of the dynasty value curve.
With all that said, though, it’s hard to deny what Penny did in the final five games of the 2021 season.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He averaged a whopping 134.2 rushing yards per game and over a touchdown per game, suddenly becoming a star workhorse back. Therefore, I won’t just let Penny go cheap if I already have him. I’d likely want at least the 2.01 or 2.02 in this year’s class to sell him.
Nicholas J. – What should I try to get out of Stefon Diggs or should I keep him? He’s 28. I have Brandon Aiyuk and Christian Kirk. My TE is Darren Waller. I’m rebuilding, and those are my oldest players.
I chose this question less to discuss Diggs, Waller, Aiyuk, or Kirk specifically and more on approaching aging assets on rebuilding teams. To simplify the discussion, I wouldn’t have any interest in moving Aiyuk or even Kirk right now on a rebuilding dynasty team. Aiyuk had a down 2021 season, but he remains a talented young player with first-round draft capital. Kirk is a free agent this off-season, and he will likely gain hype when he signs. At least wait until he signs his deal, then sell him if you want when his value is a bit higher.
However, players like Aiyuk and Kirk are far from must-sells or even sells on rebuilding teams. In contrast, though, Diggs and Waller are must-move type players. Generally, I won’t accept any wide receiver 28 years old or older on a rebuilding team. Tight ends are a bit trickier to manage as it’s a shallow position, but Waller is already 29, turning 30 in September 2022.
Right now, Diggs is the WR13 and 25.33 overall in DLF’s January ADP, while Waller is the TE5 and 56 overall. Waller is the easier player to deal with, as T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert come in behind him in ADP, even though I’d rather each of them over Waller straight up. I’d try to get Hockenson or Goedert plus for Waller, as anything on top of Waller represents a bonus to me.
As for Diggs, he may be tougher to move, but I can suggest a few viable options. Elijah Moore would be my primary target to trade back for, as he is WR19 and 41.17 overall in ADP. You may not be able to get Moore and a first-rounder for Diggs, but perhaps you can try and trade Diggs and a 2023 second-rounder for Moore and a 2023 first-rounder. In a rebuild, stockpiling 2023 first-round picks would be one of my primary strategies.
Jacob Calloway – League with all first-time dynasty players (SF). Most guys don’t value QBs as high. Q re: drafting for value, should I change my “value” system to what the market, or stay consistent hoping they catch up?
I purposely saved this question for last, especially since I identified this one during the show as a topic I wanted to discuss in more detail. But, in general, I would give two main points relating to applying common dynasty strategies across leagues. First, it’s important to remember every league is different, and it’s crucial to adapt to each league. But, it’s also essential to stick to critical dynasty strategy principles, some of which are league-independent.
In this case, I lean more toward the second point or staying consistent hoping they catch up as the question said. In superflex leagues, quarterbacks carry a lot of value, so I won’t trade my existing quarterbacks low or wait on my first few quarterbacks in a startup draft. However, I probably would adapt to the league slightly, ruling out a quarterback stockpile approach. This league wouldn’t be one where I’d take six or more quarterbacks in the startup draft because that carries too much risk based on the leaguemates and league-specific market.
See you next week!
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
