2022 Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence (ADP = 114.17, QB13)
Considering the hype surrounding Lawrence coming into the NFL, it’s impossible to view his rookie year as anything other than a massive disappointment.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He failed to complete 60% of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions. There aren’t any true statistical positives for Lawrence from 2021, and I won’t pretend otherwise.
For fantasy football, he was even worse.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, he peaked at QB10 in week five, and that game represented his only QB1 finish all year. He also had seven games where he finished outside of QB2 range at QB25 or lower. So essentially, you couldn’t even start Lawrence in superflex leagues most weeks, let alone in a 1QB format.
In 1QB leagues, quarterbacks barely carry any value, but I don’t mind targeting Lawrence as a buy-low or startup draft option in superflex leagues. I still rank him as the dynasty QB8 based on his college profile, ahead of Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Matthew Stafford. The DLF Trade Finder has a few good trades involving Lawrence.
I easily prefer the Lawrence side in these two deals, and I will buy many shares if the price remains this low.
CJ Beathard (ADP = NR)
Beathard started some games when he was on the 49ers, but he’s nothing more than a low-upside backup now. He barely played behind Lawrence, and he will remain in that role next year. I guess you could roster him on really deep superflex rosters as a handcuff, but that’s all he is.
RUNNING BACK
Travis Etienne (ADP = 49.50, RB19)
It’s difficult to comment much on Etienne, as he hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL. Urban Meyer wanted Etienne in the first round of the NFL Draft to play a receiving back role, but now Meyer is gone. Therefore, it’s unclear how the new coaching staff will view Etienne moving forward, especially after James Robinson’s Achilles tear.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
Etienne’s ADP chart gives an idea of how the dynasty community viewed him throughout his time in the NFL after the Jaguars selected him. His ADP held steadily as a third-round startup pick from May to August, as dynasty managers thought he would supplant Robinson as the Jaguars’ starter. However, his value plummeted after his season-ending Lisfranc injury, staying relatively steady from September to December.
But now, Etienne finally saw an opening after Robinson’s Achilles tear, rising to an ADP of 49.5 and RB19. Based on Etienne’s risk and the probability that Robinson returns to form, his current value is about right. Etienne’s pairing with his college quarterback in Lawrence should at least provide him a shot at playing time.
James Robinson (ADP = 95.67, RB33)
Unfortunately, I think Cam Akers’s miraculous recovery from his Achilles tear ruined any possibility to get a good value on Robinson. Robinson is far from the athlete that Akers is, and I have zero expectation that he will return to his previous level after this injury. Considering that he suffered his injury late in the 2021 season and may not be ready for the start of the 2022 season, I have no interest in him in dynasty leagues right now.
However, I still think that Robinson has talent left, and he only turns 24 years old in August. He is a restricted free agent after 2022, so the Jaguars may let him walk if he misses some or most of 2022. If he signs elsewhere for 2023, he may then find a rebound in value. Maybe I’ll consider buying Robinson during the 2022 season after his value bottoms out.
Carlos Hyde (ADP = NR)
Hyde caused plenty of frustrations for dynasty managers this year, as he siphoned far too much work from Robinson. However, he’s already 31 years old, and the Jaguars likely signed him because he played for Meyer at Ohio State. Given that they have both Robinson and Etienne under contract for 2022, they will probably release Hyde and save $2 million in cap space. Hyde’s dynasty career is long over.
Dare Ogunbowale (ADP = NR)
Ogunbowale was a popular sleeper during the 2019 training camp in Tampa Bay before seeing late-season action replacing Robinson in both 2020 and 2021. However, he’s nothing more than an emergency backup. Don’t bother rostering him in any dynasty formats.
Ryquell Armstead (ADP = NR)
I mainly wanted to include Armstead because he’s a great story. He flashed decently on the Jaguars in 2019 as a fifth-round rookie behind then-workhorse Leonard Fournette, scoring two receiving touchdowns. But, unfortunately, Armstead missed the entire 2020 season with complications from COVID-19, eventually leading to his release after the Jaguars changed coaching staffs.
He then bounced from the Giants to the Saints to the Packers before landing on the Jaguars again for the final two weeks of this season after they fired Meyer. The Jaguars lost Robinson to an Achilles tear, forcing them to turn to Ogunbowale and Armstead as their running backs. Armstead only had 15 carries for 80 yards, but he showed he could still play. Of course, he’s only a stash play moving forward, but maybe he can revitalize his career in 2022 and beyond.
WIDE RECEIVER
DJ Chark (ADP = 102.83, WR49)
Chark only played four games in 2021, catching seven of 22 targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns. He then suffered a season-ending ankle injury, a devastating blow heading into free agency. Before the Jaguars fired Meyer, I assumed Chark would depart for another team, as Meyer never seemed to like Chark very much. However, now, I could easily see Chark returning to the Jaguars on a one-year prove-it deal, giving Lawrence familiarity at wide receiver. Either way, I don’t mind Chark’s current dynasty price, given his youth and upside.
Laviska Shenault (ADP = 113.33, WR51)
Of all the players on the Jaguars, Shenault was likely the most disappointing.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Despite a massive quarterback upgrade, he failed to progress significantly from 2020 to 2021. He saw 21 more targets, but he played two additional games while not improving his receiving numbers. The Jaguars also failed to involve him as a rusher as they did in 2020, even though they lost Etienne for the entire season.
Of course, Shenault suffered from some touchdown regression, which may or may not be his fault. However, if he scored the same five touchdowns as 2020, I doubt Shenault is currently receiving the same level of vitriol that he is now. It’s telling that Chark currently ranks ahead of him in ADP, even though Chark barely played in 2021 and had a similar value going into the season. Therefore, dynasty managers see Shenault’s performance as so bad that it’s worse than barely playing at all.
Moving forward, I have some hope that Shenault can rebound. I loved him as a prospect coming into the NFL, and his draft capital likely merits a second chance. He also doesn’t even turn 24 until October, so he remains a young player. I hope that Lawrence can find chemistry with him in 2022, and the new coaching staff stops using players like Jamal Agnew and Tavon Austin on gadget and rushing plays that could go to Shenault.
Marvin Jones (ADP = 197.33, WR86)
At this point, Jones is no longer a dynasty asset. He led the Jaguars in all receiving categories with 73 receptions on 120 targets for 832 yards and four touchdowns. However, he only finished as the WR34 with only 10.6 PPR points per game. Worst of all, most of Jones’s production came earlier in the season.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Jones only had six double-digit fantasy performances this year, four of which came in the first six weeks. He killed fantasy managers throughout the second half of the year, especially anyone who played him in weeks 15 and 17 in the fantasy playoffs. Considering Jones turns 32 this off-season, it’s fair to see he might not have it anymore. The Jaguars would only save $3.5 million with $5.2 million in dead cap by releasing Jones, so they may keep him as a veteran for 2022. But even so, I think his last relevant stretch occurred earlier this year.
Jamal Agnew (ADP = 235.83, WR111)
Agnew had a short stretch of fantasy and real-life relevance in the middle of the season, but he failed to establish a consistent role in the offense. The Jaguars also discovered Laquon Treadwell later in the season, who far outperformed Agnew as an unheralded receiving option. Agnew will remain on the Jaguars as their returner and occasional offensive weapon, but his main fantasy legacy will be vulturing Shenault’s gadget-style touches more than anything else. He isn’t a dynasty asset.
Laquon Treadwell (ADP = 240.33, WR120)
Speaking of Treadwell, I believe he did enough to earn a legitimate free-agent contract for 2022, whether that’s from the Jaguars or another franchise. Despite playing significant time on offense in only eight games, he finished third on the Jaguars in targets, receptions, and yards, finishing with 33 catches, 434 yards, and a touchdown on 51 targets. Of course, Treadwell was a first-round pick way back in the 2016 NFL Draft, and he’s still pretty young, turning 27 in June. I won’t pay anything to acquire Treadwell in a trade, but he represents a decent flier late in startup drafts.
TIGHT END
Dan Arnold (ADP = 237, TE44)
There isn’t too much to say about Arnold. The Panthers signed him to a two-year, $6 million contract before 2021, but they traded him to the Jaguars after week three this year. He instantly became the Jaguars’ starting tight end after James O’Shaughnessy’s injury, ahead of uninspiring options like Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell, Jacob Hollister. Unfortunately, we never truly saw Arnold and O’Shaughnessy on the field simultaneously, as their injuries prevented that.
Arnold remains under contract for 2022 at only $2.535 million, and the Jaguars would only save $1.5 million in cap space to release him. Therefore, I expect him to remain their starting tight end for next season unless they make a big splash in free agency. Even so, he carries little to no dynasty value.
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