Dynasty Trading Post
Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post! This series will highlight the trading tools we have for our DLF subscribers. We’ll use the DLF Trade Finder to look at actual trades that took place in dynasty leagues hosted on myfantasyleague.com, check in with the DLF Trade Analyzer to see what it thinks and then discuss those deals. One caveat to mention is that the Trade Analyzer value of a player changes constantly, so all values discussed were at the time of writing. If you have a trade you’d like addressed in this space, please reach out to @MattPriceFF on Twitter!
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
A common thread that ran through the dynasty community last off-season was that Pitts would be cheaper to acquire after his rookie season. The reasoning was that rookie tight ends usually struggle, and his value will dip if he doesn’t meet the high expectations placed upon him. This line of thinking often works out, but Pitts had other plans for his rookie season. While he disappointed in the touchdown column with only one score on the season, he set a new modern-era record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end.
Image from statmuse.com.
Pitts’ rookie season came just 50 yards short of the all-time rookie record set by Mike Ditka 60 years ago! Compared to more recent rookie tight end performances, we can see that Pitts stands alone. In 2017, Evan Engram had four fewer receptions and 304 fewer yards on five more targets than Pitts had. Engram did have five more touchdowns.
So what happened to his ADP throughout the season? DLF’s ADP comparison tool tells the entire story.
Pitts to the moon! As you can see, his ADP in DLF mocks has risen from the mid-60s back in February 2021 to just inside the first round in 2022, one-quarterback startup drafts.
How about the cost to acquire in trades? Using the DLF Trade Finder tool, we can see actual trades that have taken place over on MFL.
As you can see, the price is quite high. Trade three is in a one-quarterback league and perhaps the cheapest acquisition of the three examples. In trade two, it cost a top-five quarterback in a superflex league. In trade one, it cost a second, a fantastic WR prospect, and the former dynasty TE1. When someone asks me what it would take to acquire Pitts from my teams, I usually just respond with this Thanos gif.
I have personally paid the iron price to acquire Pitts. One trade that immediately comes to mind took place during rookie draft season where I gave Travis Kelce for the 1.02 pick in a superflex league and used that pick to select Pitts ahead of every player except Trevor Lawrence. To be completely transparent, I also traded away Pitts late in the season on two championship contenders to put myself in a better position to win a title. It helped get me there in one league and backfired in another.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
I was told I was crazy for trading Kelce for Pitts prior to the start of the 2021 season, but I could see the writing on the wall. Kelce was coming off his fifth straight TE1 overall fantasy season and would turn 32 shortly after the beginning of the season. Because of his dominant 2020 season, Kelce’s value was at an all-time high. Conversely, Pitts was, in my opinion, the best tight end prospect of all time and landed in a spot where he would be a top-two target on his team. One of these players was trending up, and one was trending down.
Kelce’s ADP value has remained remarkably consistent, but the two players’ values began to diverge in October as you can see on the chart. Since then, Pitts has taken over, and there’s no turning back. At no point in the future will Kelce be the more valuable dynasty asset.
We already saw some examples of trades involving both Kelce and Pitts, but let’s take a look at a couple more options.
Even though he’s a declining asset, Kelce is still valuable to contending teams seeking production. If he was on your roster in week 15, you saw he is still capable of week-winning performances. His ten catch, 191-yard, two-touchdown performance likely vaulted you into the semifinals.
In the first trade above, give me Kelce all day. James Conner will be productive next season, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an exciting prospect, but Kelce should provide top-end TE performances for two-three more seasons. The second deal is even more lopsided. A dart throw receiver and a draft pick that won’t pay off for a season or two for Kelce *and* Amari Cooper? Unless I’m in a total rebuild (and probably even if I am), I’ll gladly take the veterans. Kelce still has plenty of value; he just doesn’t have as much value as Kyle Pitts.
That will do it for this edition of the Dynasty Trading Post! Let us know what you think of these trades and how the trade analyzer values the pieces. Remember, the trade analyzer is but one tool in your dynasty toolkit. In the end, it’s up to you to pull the trigger on a trade. If you’d like a specific player or trade run through this process, please don’t hesitate to reach out!
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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