Rookie Quarterback Dynasty Reactions: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Trey Lance
One of the most important elements of dynasty fantasy football is the post-season review. This means just after the regular season comes to an end, taking a quick look at the rookies of that year and reacting to their seasons. It is extremely important because you can strictly focus on some of the young and hopefully rising players in the league and decide how you may look to manage them moving forward for dynasty purposes.
With this in mind, this series of rookie reactions will cover nearly every rookie season this past year. In part one below, we begin with three rookie quarterbacks – be sure to stay tuned for part two in the very near future!
Trevor Lawrence, JAC
NFL Draft pick: Round one, first overall
Number one overall pick Lawrence put together some amazing seasons at Clemson and totaled over 10,000 passing yards with 90 touchdowns through the air in his three seasons. He also led the college to a National Championship in 2018.
As impressive as that was, what people really loved about him was his pocket awareness. His ability to stay composed in the pocket mimicked that of an NFL veteran with significantly more experience. It was something very rarely seen in college quarterbacks. Some fantasy football players had very high expectations and wanted to see a huge breakout year – Jacksonville’s new head coach Urban Meyer was expected to offer some promise on offense. Unfortunately, Lawrence’s rookie season proved to be quite the opposite.
In his 16 games played, he threw for 3,418 yards, This is not necessarily bad for a rookie. However, he only produced ten passing touchdowns and recorded 17 interceptions which tied Matthew Stafford for the most in the NFL this year. It was certainly a frustrating season for Lawrence and a frustrating year for this Jaguars team that finished with three wins and now have the number one overall pick again in this upcoming draft.
Despite an underwhelming season, we have to cut Lawrence some slack this year. Urban Meyer was a terrible coach who brought negativity to the organization – his inappropriate and distracting behavior is well documented. On top of that, this Jacksonville offense was an absolute dumpster fire around him in 2021. Their other first-round pick, Travis Etienne, missed the entire year due to Lisfranc Injury. James Robinson was good when fully healthy but he was restrained by injury for nearly half the season. Also, Lawrence did not have much help from his receiving core, which ended up 13th in the league with dropped passes (21). There were a lot of obstacles for Lawrence in his first NFL season, so give him a break!
Although this was a challenging season, he still has a bright future. Meyer is gone. This Jaguars team is likely going to want to build around Lawrence by adding some weapons. They won’t use the first overall pick on a receiver, but they could land one at 33rd overall or with one of their two third-rounders. This wide receiver class, like most over the past few years, is deep. At the 33rd overall pick, they could be looking at George Pickens, or even Chris Olave. Both of those players should be able to eventually secure the number one role in Jacksonville looking at the team’s current set of wide receivers.
Additionally, there are many excellent free-agent wideouts in 2022, including Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Will Fuller, and JuJu Smith Schuster. Adding onto that, Calvin Ridley appears to be on the trade market. The Jaguars have a lot of draft capital, but they also have just over 50 million dollars in cap space, third most in the NFL. They have all the power in the world to make a big free-agent signing this off-season to help out their franchise quarterback. If Jacksonville really wants to build around Lawrence, they will at the least be in the conversation for signing some of these big names.
With that in mind, Lawrence is a player you should be targeting in your dynasty leagues. Any disappointment based on year one is short-sighted. If you find the right owner, you can obtain Lawrence for an incredible deal. I just scooped him up for the 1.02 in this year’s rookie draft, as the upcoming QB class appears to be somewhat weak. If Jacksonville were to add a big name wideout this off-season, his price is likely going to soar. Take advantage of that lower cost and get him while you still can.
Justin Fields, CHI
NFL Draft pick: Round one, 11th overall
The Chicago Bears traded up to get Fields at 11th overall. They gave the New York Giants their 20th overall pick and the 164th overall pick in the 2021 draft in addition to 2022 first and fifth-round picks. It was not cheap but they were willing to pay the price for a potential franchise quarterback.
He brought a ton of excitement coming into this year for fantasy purposes. He was surrounded by weapons in an offense stacked with Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, and Darnell Mooney. He was also arguably the best rusher out of all the quarterbacks drafted in 2021, which people love out of their fantasy QBs. Although Fields did not play the full year, he was substantial when starting for the Chicago Bears.
In the eight full games he did start, he averaged just over 201 yards per game through the air with a total of eight touchdowns in those eight games. He had a few bright moments and great flashes during this season and simply got better as the season went on. Additionally, he put together a few very nice fantasy football performances. Fields had three games of top-ten quarterback production on the year in his eight full games started, including a top-five finish.
The real kicker here is Fields put up these solid rookie numbers with Matt Nagy as the head coach of this team. Generally considered one of the worst performances from any head coach this season, the Bears put together a horrific offensive year, averaging just over 18 points per game. They even proved incapable of gaining any momentum in their star-wideout Robinson. It was frustrating for fantasy managers who drafted him and for Bears fans who knew what he was capable of contributing.
As a dynasty asset, Fields is extremely intriguing. He leads an offense full of young talent and even if Robinson were to leave in free agency, they have options. They will likely look to build around Fields and replace Robinson with a big-name wideout to group with Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet.
Additionally, running quarterbacks are the future of both fantasy football and the NFL. Soon, most quarterbacks are going to be expected to be able to bring something to their NFL offense with their legs. Thus, for fantasy purposes, it will be crucial to have at least one great rushing quarterback on your team in your normal superflex dynasty league. Fields put up over 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground in his three-year Ohio State career. He is going to be one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the NFL and there is a realistic outcome where he is putting up Josh Allen or Kyler Murray-level rushing numbers in the coming years. Once that occurs, he will be nearly impossible to acquire in dynasty formats. I sincerely believe his affordability will not last. Consider jumping at the opportunity!
Trey Lance, SF
NFL Draft pick: Round one, third overall
The 49ers traded multiple first-rounders to move up and acquire Lance at third overall. Interestingly during his college years, he did not play much, having only 19 starts for various reasons in his three-year tenure at North Dakota State. However, when he did play he was exceptional. In his sophomore year alone, he put up 2,786 passing yards with a 67 percent completion rate and 28 touchdowns. Those stats alone are impressive but he also threw exactly zero interceptions thrown for the entire year. Plus, he also contributed 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Since we really only saw one year out of Lance, plenty of people have their concerns about his talent and longevity. Regardless, the 49ers have stated they are excited about his future with the team.
Unfortunately, for those excited about Lance heading into 2021, Jimmy Garoppolo proved to be the starting quarterback for most of the season. Lance only started twice the entire year. In those two starts, he went 31 of 52 for 441 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also added 24 attempts for 120 yards as a rusher. He did finish inside the top 12 for fantasy football in one of those performances as well. He looked pretty remarkable as a rookie in his small sample size of playing time. For me personally, Lance was actually more impressive to watch than any other rookie quarterback this year outside of Mac Jones.
There is still a great deal of excitement around Lance’s future in San Francisco. There are numerous reports hinting that Garappolo will be moved to another team during this off-season. There are also a number of reports suggesting the 49ers have been very impressed with Lance and his development. It appears he could soon have this loaded offense all to himself. He has an excellent San Francisco run game and he has a minimum top ten, arguably top five receiving trio in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. He also has an excellent head coach in Kyle Shannahan who has already shown us he likes utilizing Lance’s strength as a runner.
Lance is definitely someone worth going after in dynasty leagues, even if he is expensive. Thinking back on our earlier discussion of the NFL and the clear future for rushing QBs, Lance’s upside is tremendous. He could truly become a Lamar Jackson-level rushing quarterback. Should that occur, paying the steep price now would certainly prove worthwhile. You are buying a young, elite rushing quarterback coming off somewhat of a down year. Go out and buy now because the only thing holding people back from Lance is that Garoppolo is still on the team. Once he is gone, Lance’s price will skyrocket and it will be too high for most managers to reach in dynasty.
Conclusion
Truthfully, I am excited for all three of the quarterbacks mentioned above and their futures with their respective NFL teams. I firmly believe they are talented players despite their slow starts, which were partly due to the situations surrounding them rather than the players themselves. I also strongly suggest investing in this 2021 quarterback class as the upcoming draft class in 2022 is looking very weak at the quarterback position.
If you need a young quarterback on your dynasty team, I would consider giving up your next season’s rookie picks to secure one of these existing league starters. Rookie draft picks are always exciting, but 2022 is a year where you should be looking toward running back or wide receiver.
Thanks for reading and coming up in our next article, we will continue to review the rookie quarterback performances from this season.
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