Ambiguous Running Back Duos: Houston Texans

Shane Manila

Now that rookie drafts are (largely) over, and we are entering a relative dead period of the off-season, my mind starts to wander and I think of the upcoming football season.

One of the prime areas for staking a claim and hopefully cashing in on is backfields that aren’t exactly clear. Generally, if a backfield is ambiguous, the community isn’t definitive on who they believe will be the primary back come the start of the season. What makes these backfields so intriguing is the acquisition cost for these players is typically low and the reward is high if you guess right.

Before I dig into the backfields I feel fall into this realm, I want to say what would not qualify. A backfield with an “old” but productive running back like Ezekiel Elliott and a younger change-of-pace back a la Tony Pollard doesn’t qualify in my mind. The Colts backfield, where Nyheim Hines captured a 56% target share for the team running backs compared to Jonathan Taylor’s 29% share, also does not qualify. Taylor also saw 56% of the team rushing attempts versus Hines’s 22%, and that number grew more disparate as the season progressed. Though Hines might be a nice flex option or even someone to hold onto in case of a Taylor injury, I think we can all agree he is no threat to ever taking Taylor’s job.

One final point. Remember this is a subjective exercise. What I view as ambiguous might not be the same as you, or what your league mates consider ambiguous. If you’re looking to make some trades for running backs in your leagues, bring this topic up in your group chat and see what information the other general managers divulge. If they let you know they think a backfield isn’t as clear cut as you believe, send out offers based on that information.

Just for a peek at the dissenting views, feel free to check out the replies to my tweet below.

Today, I want to examine the Houston Texans backfield…

David Johnson vs Phillip Lindsay vs Mark Ingram vs Rex Burkhead

With so many moving parts in Houston, it’s near impossible to look at what the team did last year to determine what they might do this season with their backfield. There’s a new coaching staff in place, and the quarterback situation is completely unsettled. One area we can look at to guide us is the amount of guaranteed money each of these running backs has in their contract.

Burkhead carries a dead cap hit of just $125,000, Ingram carries a $500,000 hit, Lindsay $1 million, and Johnson $4.25 million if released prior to the season. If I were a betting man, I’d say that either Ingram or Burkhead gets cut prior to the start of the season, and I lean towards Ingram being the one to go.

Burkhead can be used on special teams, while Ingram doesn’t play on special teams, and looked completely baked last year. Despite paying him $4 million last season, and fighting for their playoff lives, the Ravens made Ingram a healthy scratch the final seven weeks of the season. Burkhead has flashed in the past but he’s never been able to remain healthy. His career high was 103 opportunities during the 2019 season, and he should be of no threat to either Lindsay or Johnson. That’s not to say he won’t have one or two nice weeks, and he will steal some work from both players, but not enough to truly matter.

Both Johnson (RB39) and Lindsay (RB54) are cheap options who you won’t need to expend much capital to acquire. Despite being a shell of himself, Johnson was able to put together an RB14 scoring season in 2021 among players who played at least six games, while Lindsay trailed far behind scoring 6.0 fantasy points per game.

If you look at advanced statistics like yards created per attempt, breakaway rate, and juke rate, Lindsay nearly matched or exceeded Johnson in every metric, for whatever that’s worth to you. Where the scoring difference was created was points per opportunity. Per Fantasy Data, Johnson’s 0.92 fantasy points per opportunity ranked 13th at the running back position last year compared to Lindsay’s 0.50 (51st). Considering that Lindsay saw just 14 targets in 11 games vs Johnson’s 46 in 12 games, the points per opportunity tracks since targets are worth more than a rushing attempt in fantasy football. Lindsay did only score one touchdown last year so he might be in for some positive regression, but scoring touchdowns is a function of touches so that’s not a given.

Despite being an undersized back, Lindsay was never a big part of the passing attack during his time in Denver. He did have 35 receptions in each of 2018 and 2019 but he averages just 6.0 yards per reception in his career, compared to Johnson’s 10.5 yards per reception. Even a less explosive version of Johnson was able to average 9.5 yards per reception last year while Lindsay could only muster 4.0 yard per reception. It’s certainly plausible that the Texans coaching staff thinks there’s more to unlock in Lindsay’s receiving game, but based on what we have seen so far, that would be a detriment to themselves. Lindsay is fine as a dump-off option but he can’t compare to the receiving ability that Johnson has shown throughout his career.

Johnson also rushed to a better per average carry rate last year (a career-high 4.7 yards per attempt) despite running behind Pro Football Focus’s 30th-ranked run-blocking line. Lindsay, running behind a better offensive line, ran to 4.3 yards per carry (compared to ex-teammate Melvin Gordon’s 4.6 YPR behind the same line). Johnson is also the better blocker, which always matters, and could be even more paramount if rookie quarterback Davis Mills is pressed into game action.

There Can Only Be One

If you’re looking for a cheap lottery ticket, you could do worse than Lindsay. He fell out of favor in Denver but did post consecutive seasons of over 1,200 total yards in his first two years. He’s also the more likely between himself and Johnson to appreciate in value.

It should be noted though that even if Lindsay does appreciate in value, I wouldn’t expect the spike to be huge. Coming off an RB13 season in 2018, Lindsay was drafted as the RB22 the following season, and after his RB27 season in 2019, he was being drafted as the RB36 the following season.

When faced with a choice of one or the other I prefer David Johnson in 2021. He’s the superior pass blocker, better pass-catcher, and despite his advanced age, is the better all-around player than Lindsay.

shane manila
Ambiguous Running Back Duos: Houston Texans