Five 2021 UDFA Running Backs You Should Know About
Not a lot of people are interested in undrafted free agents in fantasy football – at least not the extent that they painstakingly track who signs where for years and have developed some rules to try and help find the few loose gems in the barrel of over 1,000 since 2000 (123 QBs, 337 RBs, 454 WRs and 163 TEs – you did not ask but that’s how they break down).
But since both Austin Ekeler and James Robinson have been impactful, and notably, impactful early in their careers in the NFL, I find more people are interested. So, that is why I thought this article might pique some interest.
A word of warning: UDFAs are incredibly unlikely to become fantasy-relevant, especially if you are thinking about James Robinson from last year. Most of the rules I have learned over how to sift through the players involved a wait-and-see mentality. One positive, for example, is a player is able to stick to the same depth chart in their second year.
I have uploaded a list of current UDFA signings I’ve found here.
But, for now, I just want to highlight a few running backs who have been signed but already stood out in the pre-draft process. With suitably lowered expectations, they could be interesting players to keep an eye on. These are players who, maybe, one day, we could hear about again out here on these dynasty streets.
Jaret Patterson, RB WAS
Patterson is going to be well noticed this year. I first heard about him “on the grapevine” of dynasty podcasts pre-draft for one thing. For another, so far, he is the only UDFA signing I can find for the whole team. While I only try to track skill position players, there are a host of other positions (you may have heard of them) NFL teams need to fill. Washington haven’t turned to UDFAs for that, not this year.
It is also notable because Antonio Gibson (everyone’s favorite justification for valuing second-round picks in rookie drafts) was used… interestingly in 2021. Despite a great start to his career in 2020, he seemed to be used more sparingly after their bye in week nine and JD McKissic, used heavily in the passing game for large parts of the season, took more touches in five games down the stretch – before week 17 at least.
Patterson was a huge producer in the MAC (East) for Buffalo, amassing 3,884 rushing yards and 52 touchdowns at a 6.3 yards per touch clip. While it’s a “lesser” conference there’s no question Patterson was dominant. He managed to repeat back-to-back years of 19 touchdowns (rushing) despite only playing six games in 2020 as a junior.
The downside includes barely catching the ball at all in college, with 20 total receptions, and measuring in at 5’6” tall, 195 lbs with a 4.50-second 40-yard dash time. A little undersized, with below-average size-adjusted athleticism, is not the best look for a running back at any draft capital. Then again, it’s also not typical of such a dominant rusher, and he’s coming out at 21 years old – a rare thing in this year’s class.
Spencer Brown, RB CAR
Further indicating their intention to spell Christian McCaffrey at, maybe, a league-average rate, the Carolina Panthers didn’t just draft Chubba Hubbard in the fourth round this year, they also added a lesser mentioned but almost as interesting (in my opinion) running back as a UDFA. Brown profiles in a similar way to Patterson – a strong rushing profile from a lower conference with minimal receiving history.
Not to be confused with the offensive lineman, who was drafted, Brown was a dominant rusher at UAB for four straight years and churned out 4,011 rushing yards and 41 touchdowns. However, despite playing longer, with considerably more touches than Patterson, he also only caught 20 balls.
Slightly less efficient than ideal (4.7 yards per touch) and slightly older as a prospect (22) he is entering the NFL as a slightly less impressive producer than his overall numbers might suggest. However, he’s also listed at 6’0″ tall and 200 lbs, with an “okay” (for his size) 40-yard dash time (4.58 seconds).
Javian Hawkins, RB ATL
Did you think the Atlanta Falcons only drafted one electric athlete skill position player this year? Well, they did. They also did nothing to address the running back position in the draft. While I am a fan of Mike Davis and think he could definitely hold that job in 2021, I think a less certain depth chart can often be a source of unexpected value. In the UDFA market, the team added two players to the squad listed at the running back position. The one who catches my eye is Hawkins.
Hawkins showed up in my pre-draft process this off-season while looking into draft prospects. Here’s some of what I wrote about him in my notes.
“Tricky as he only played more than eight games twice and one of them was his final year, in 2020. While the pandemic and its effects were no player’s fault, it’s hard to know what to make of his production because of this missing time.
“He was on pace to improve or maintain an impressive 2019 campaign where he had 1,525 rushing yards, with marginal receiving work sprinkled in (only four catches, though he did gain a whopping 58 yards on them). In 2020 he was already up to 16 receptions, so, that’s a tough read through eight games.
“His pro-day turned out to be underwhelming as he measured in at 183 lbs at 5’8″, although his 4.46-second 40 time is good. Overall, I think he’s interesting but his lack of size and real history of receiving work (outside of what 2020 could have been) is concerning.”
Hawkins is an undersized running back out of Louisville with a great 40 time and a spotty production history due to playing time and a global pandemic. This year, I’ve heard of worse bets.
Pooka Williams Jr., RB CIN
I know some might be excited about the potential of Joe Mixon on a re-tooled Bengals offense with a (hopefully) healthy Joe Burrow and two of the best receivers in the last two draft classes. I get it. But I’m kind of tired of waiting. The Bengals have added interesting depth behind Mixon before, and Williams is not even the most interesting or productive of the group. But with the loss of Giovani Bernard, I think Williams might be an interesting name to know.
While it may not be a big concern for Mixon, Williams does bring one of the most developed receiving skill sets on this list with 66 receptions through 26 total games. He had back-to-back years with more than 20 receptions and managed 8.1 yards per reception for his entire career. He also suffered from a shortened 2020 but all told he amassed 2,916 total yards from scrimmage with 2,382 rushing yards in total.
Listed at 5’8” tall and 175 lbs, he is also undersized for the position. But he is the only player I have found with decent production numbers who could, somewhat fairly, be called a receiving running back. He is also listed with a 4.38-second 40-yard dash time, which means he has some of the best size-adjusted athleticism on this list.
Brenden Knox, RB DAL
An Ezekiel Elliot replacement he is not (being an undrafted free agent should tell us that much) but Knox has some interesting aspects to his profile. To begin with, he is listed at 5’11” and 215 lbs – so the only running back-sized running back on this list. Playing at Marshall in the CURSA conference, his overall production does not attract much attention. He produced 2,852 rushing yards and 239 receiving yards (on 577 total touches) which works out to a mere 5.4 yards per touch for his career.
However, he also had back-to-back years with 1.8 Yards Per Team Attempt (YTMA) mark which is positive, and around the average for fantasy-relevant players from any conference. I also think it’s notable that since 2012 the average CURSA (East) lead running back is 1.25 YTMA. In other words, he was significantly above average from a poor conference on a team that has averaged the second-lowest mark in this area in the same time frame.
Joining a depth chart behind Elliott and Tony Pollard is not exactly ideal, but I think he is an interestingly sized player with a decent history of production (relative to the conference) on a good team that is once again ready to put up fantasy points in 2021.
Anyway, that is about all I have time for right now. Thanks for checking it out and let me know if you have any questions or I missed any other interesting UDFA signings in the comments below.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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