Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Josh Palmer, WR LAC

Josh Palmer

Bruce Matson Posted On May 31, 2021

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Josh Palmer

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers

College Team: Tennessee Volunteers

Draft Status: Round three, 77th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

PRO DAY REVIEW

Height: 6’1’’
Weight: 210 pounds
Arm Length: 33’’
Hand Size: 9 5/8’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.52 seconds
Vertical Jump: 34’’
Broad Jump: 124’’
Thee Cone: 6.98 seconds

STRENGTHS

Tough at the catch point. Will win in most contested-catch situations.
Can make catches in traffic.
Has excellent ball skills.
Will get physical against press coverage.

WEAKNESSES

Doesn’t have the top-end speed to blow the doors off the defense.
Not sudden off the line of scrimmage or getting out of breaks.
Wasn’t productive during his tenure at Tennessee.
Lacks the quickness to create separation from defensive backs.
Ran a limited route tree in Tennessee.

OPPORTUNITIES

Palmer will instantly compete for the WR3 spot on the team. Considering the Chargers spent significant draft capital to acquire him, they are going to provide him enough opportunities to compete for a scalable role. A chance to prove himself could allow him to become a key contributor to the offense.

Mike Williams hasn’t exactly had a clean bill of health over the course of his career. If the injury bug rears its ugly head, then Palmer will see additional snaps and targets. Williams’ contract expires at the end of this season. If the Chargers decide to part ways from Williams, then that could lead to Palmer potentially receiving an opportunity to be the team’s WR2. There’s a chance the Chargers had Williams’ contract in mind when they selected Palmers in this year’s draft.

We can talk about our favorite late-round prospects until we are blue in the face, but the fact the backend of the roster isn’t considered overly talented will help Palmer get some extra looks in camp during the early stages of his career. The Chargers’ wide receiver depth chart has guys like Tyron Johnson, Joe Reed, Jalen Guyton, KJ Hill, Kyle Spalding, John Hurst, and Jason Moore. Some of these wide receivers had great college careers and a few have impressive athletic profiles. Palmer has the draft capital and the chance to keep these prospects at bay for a sizeable role within the offense.

There’s no doubt about it, Justin Herbert is one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league. Just having the chance to receive quality targets from an up-and-coming quarterback is an opportunity not many young wide receivers get to experience.

THREATS

One of the biggest threats is what is written in Sharpie in his own player profile. He did not reach 500 yards in any of his four seasons at Tennessee. He’s a 21-year-old rookie, making him an older prospect. From a market share standpoint, he failed to reach the 20 percent threshold throughout his collegiate career. Athleticism is also an issue, his 4.52-second 40-yard dash at 210 pounds, shows on tape as he doesn’t have the long speed to burn opposing defenses. He’s also not very sudden when it comes to getting off the line of scrimmage and out of his breaks.

Third-round draft capital doesn’t mean he will get an opportunity to play. He still has to prove himself and there are wide receivers on the backend of the depth cart who will give him a run for his money. Also, just because the Chargers spent a top-100 draft pick on him, doesn’t mean they will draft more wide receivers in the future.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

We should expect him to compete for snaps this season. His snap share will depend on how well he plays in training camp and throughout the year. We do not expect him to take over a starting job right away. He will need to compete with the need to establish himself in camp to the coaching staff and the rest of the team. We should at least see him on the field during his rookie season.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

His player profile suggests he will be a journeyman throughout his career. He struggled to produce at the collegiate level and the odds say he’s going to struggle to produce at the NFL level. From collegiate production to his athletic metrics, there’s nothing on his profile that points to him being a breakout candidate.

For him to rise above expectations and develop into a true dark horse, he will need to become a more nuanced receiver in terms of route running and his release off the line of scrimmage. He needs to improve on how he creates separation off his breaks and develop more ways he can win on the field.

If I were to place a bet on what he will do in the NFL, I feel comfortable saying that he will have a role with the Chargers but will not be a dependable fantasy asset. He might have his moments for a short period of time, but dynasty gamers are going to want to hold their cards close.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

His player comparisons aren’t sexy. There aren’t many all-star players who compare to him, because all of the stud receivers have multiple ways they can win on the field or they have an elite trait that assists in their dominance.

If you want to paint a portrait of what Palmer might look like on the NFL field, you have to dig a little bit. Jordan Payton is a player who has some similar traits. They are close in size and speed. The two players lived off contested-catch situations.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Palmer is routinely being selected in the middle of the third round of rookie drafts with a 28.50 average draft position. He is being selected right before Tylan Wallace who was considered a top ten rookie wide receiver going into the draft. He is also being selected before Rhamondre Stevenson, Tutu Atwell, and Anthony Schwartz. With that being said, he is being valued as the WR14, making him a cheap acquisition in rookie drafts.

Ironically, his superflex ADP is close to identical to his 1QB rookie ADP which is at 28.70 and he is being selected as the WR13 in this format. Here he is being drafted in front of Kyle Trask who is the QB6 in superflex drafts, D’Wayne Eskridge, Davis Mills, and Tylan Wallace.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.