Lineup Advice: Week 12 – Uncertainty Principle

Week 12 - Uncertainty Principle (PLEASE READ)

Bye:  Chiefs, Cardinals

Each week, I go back to last week's advice to see how I did. In this line of work, you just have to accept you won't be correct 100% of the time and if you can't accept that fact, it would be best to just walk away from doing this type of article. But it's that reflection and measurement which helps me take stock of my advice, notate my performance and get better for the week to come.  It's all too easy to get locked into a line of thinking which is no longer working and to just spew out advice from previous doctrine without truly analyzing what may have changed. While on the road, I found this to be even more difficult as my time and technology were limited. It took a lot more work and effort. In summary of week 11, I expected my advice to be far worse than previous weeks but, I have to say, I was pleasantly surprise when looking back. With a couple of major exceptions.

I'm a big fan of physics. A "fan" not an "expert" by any stretch. This extends to quantum theory, string theory, supersymmetry, dark matter and all things related to our "universe." If I had it to do over again, I'd likely choose to be an Astrophysicist. Truth be told, I still dabble but the foundational mathematical elements are something I believe need to be learned and mastered at a young age.

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle doesn't really apply to fantasy football modeling, but speaks to the limits of accuracy of predictions based upon the existence and interpretation of certain variables, known and unknown. In a far too simplistic application, I use what is known to derive the unknown and, thus, render an expectation of outcome fully understanding that the number of variables present will increase the magnitude of uncertainty. How do you give an accurate prediction when the number of impactful variables can be quite large. There's always that large looming variable which ends up being a primary determinant to ultimate performance. It is that variable in each of your questions I seek out each week. If I accurately identify it, my correct prediction is likely to be the result. Miss it and I give a poor prediction. It's not lost on me that my advice can have a very material impact on your teams.

In week 11, I did get some things correct. The reactivation of CEH did push Darrel Williams back to bench. Darnell Mooney continued his upswing and posted well, again, with Allen Robinson out. Chris Godwin,  Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Evans all performed as expected. On the negative side, Russell Wilson, Marvin Jones, Brandin Cooks and James Robinson flamed out. When looking at the names of those who didn't perform, it stands to reason as all but Wilson were very sit-worthy but also possessed variables suggesting upside. My big miss was Wilson. Some questioned a start of Cam over Wilson which turned out to be the correct call. I have looked back at my suggestion of Wilson over Cam in week 11 many times and don't know how I could have suggested otherwise. The one variable in the equation for uncertainty was Cam's return to Carolina. That proved to be the difference. For week 12, if asked again, I'm going to be hard pressed not suggest Cam over Wilson though a Monday night game for the Seahawks balances the scales. I'm never a fan of benching our studs due to a short history of poor performance.

Through 11 weeks, my dynasty teams are a combined 89-54, not bad! That said, the last two weeks haven't been great as injuries and byes left the cupboards of many of my teams rather bare. Who isn't in the same boat? I still have one 10-1 team and three 9-2 teams across the 12 teams (one of these leagues plays double headers each week). In fact, I only have a single team with a losing record (3-8), powered by Mahomes, Akers, Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Golladay, Allen Robinson and other stellar performers. In fact, as a departure from the last two years, my teams led by Patrick Mahomes are a combined 28-27. What a difference a year makes!

Those of you who follow me know I suggest we don't "get cute" with our lineups week over week. We start our studs as that is the path to riches, or should be. But, the uncertainty principle tells us that there exists greater uncertainty as other factors (variables) are understood to impact our ability to predict an outcome. Generally speaking, however, you can expect me to default to starting our studs unless there exists enough 'known' variables to suggest an alternate path. Once is an anomaly, twice is a pattern is an approach I use when predicting outcomes and I'm going to leave myself more open to suggesting alternate plays when I see the existence of variables to suggest deviation. Don't worry, I'll be sure to mention this in my answers to you so you understand where I'm coming from.

Good luck to all in week 12!

Please focus on these following items this week for me to help me get to all the questions:

• Put "TNF" as the top line for any question involving Thursday Night Football games
• Include your scoring format  (PPR, Non-PPR, etc.)
• Keep your questions as brief as possible - I won't have the screens I'm used to over the next three weeks
• I always try to keep up with responses but, when in doubt, if you have an update post a new question
• Include your "lock" picks of the week who I should be betting on for this week's games

Have a great week!