Describing Matchups: Week 11 Strength of Schedule
If you are interested in how my strength of schedule works, I’d recommend checking out the first article in this series.
As usual, I’m going to look at how things worked out last week, before breaking down matchups I find interesting this week.
Let’s dig in.
Week Ten Recap
DALLAS COWBOYS PASSING GAME VS ATL
“Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are “regression candidates” based on their expected point volume last week after turning their combined 286 air yards into only 30 receiving yards in week nine, each catching only two of 14 targets. However, it’s tough to see the “positive matchup” in Atlanta despite the high game total and overall defensive stats.
“I think it will be interesting to see if regression wins out over the lackluster fantasy results against Atlanta in wide receiver matchups and yards per touchdown. I’d start both wide receivers this week.”
Lamb scored 30.8 PPR points. Cooper scored 9.1 but caught all four of his targets for 51 yards (this is also the second straight week he’s had a target share below 13%). Ezekiel Elliott also finished as the RB2 with 20.8 points.
Overall, I think the matchup was positive and the limited nature of other teams’ scoring was a red herring since Atlanta certainly left the door open for game-managing running back usage with the rushing game since they only put up 131 passing yards.
This week Dallas faces the Kansas City Chiefs and both teams offer positive matchups for each other.
NEW ORLEANS PASSING GAME VS TEN
“Granted, outside Trevor Siemian, wide receivers Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris are difficult starts.. But, if there is such a thing as a positive matchup in week ten, attacking Tennessee through the passing game is it. Alvin Kamara can’t catch every pass (probably) and 39 combined targets for Adam Trautman, Callaway and Harris haven’t stopped him from scoring over 16 fantasy points over the last two weeks.”
Trevor Siemian scored over 19.9 PPR points and finished as the QB5. Callaway scored 11.7 points and scored a touchdown, Harris had 12 PPR points (84 total receiving yards on four targets), while Tre’Quan Smith stepped into a higher role with seven targets and a 20% target share – he finished as WR19 with 14.4 points.
All this happened after Kamara sat for the week, which affected the overall results. But in the end, the matchup met the description, so I’ll take it.
Combined Passing Ranks
Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Game VS LAC
I’m mainly looking at this game because Diontae Johnson is projected close to the top 12 this week but there is some reason for concern. He’s projected so high because he has had a 19% expected point share (per game) and a 26% target share (per game) as well as 16.6 PPG. I think he’s a top-tier wide receiver in the NFL, certainly in terms of fantasy.
However, the Los Angeles Chargers limit volume for passing games. They have only allowed two top-12 wide receiver weeks so far in 2021 – one to Justin Jefferson, and one to DeVonta Smith. Jefferson is the closest comparison, in terms of roles, to Johnson, but in that game, Jefferson had an aDot over 11, and Johnson has only done that twice this year, averaging an aDot of 10 flat. Smith plays much further down the field on average.
Ultimately an elite player can bust a matchup, but it’s safe to say I have strong reservations about this one for Johnson with very little backup outside of Najee Harris to take any pressure off.
The league’s most limited passing defense have elevated their volume to the running back position in eight out of ten matchups.
I’m not suggesting him you sit Johnson for just anyone. There is hope – their passing yards allowed and receiving yards to wide receivers aren’t too far below average – but it’s more the value of those targets seems limited. However, Hunter Renfrow – who has a closer role to Johnson – had eight targets for 45 yards and a receiving touchdown finishing as the WR25 overall in week four. He could be fine.
The Vegas game projection of 47 breaks into a 21-point team projection, suggesting Johnson could get points from receptions more than touchdowns, or even yards – even if only four wide receivers have had over 70 yards against the Chargers this season.
It is also worth noting that six tight ends have finished into the top 12 at that position facing this defense (including David Njoku who had 149 receiving yards on seven targets). Pat Freiermuth is also, once again, projected inside the top 12 at his position this week and his role has continued to grow on this offense.
Ultimately, I think Johnson and Freiermuth are starters in week 11, but I think the ceiling is muted and it may come down to which of them can catch the touchdown for fantasy relevance this week.
Combined Rushing Ranks
Miami Rushing Game vs NYJ
Start Myles Gaskin. Let’s not bury the lead here. The New York Jets are a running back nirvana and despite Gaskin’s – to say the least – disappointing consistency, this is not the week to be skittish. The Jets have given up nine top-12 running back weeks this year. They have allowed the most volume and efficiency against them (adjusted for their opponents’ average this year).
Gaskin is second only to Jaylen Waddle in terms of their team’s expected points percentage (per game). He has a 12.2% target share, and an average of 15 expected points over the last five games. He has only had under 15 points in two and hasn’t scored under 11 in any of them. In short, his volume has been there. Gaskin underperformed it twice, but I think the team is happy enough with his performances there’s no reason to see it shrink. The Jets have elevated the running back expected points usage for every single opponent this season (averaging 2.1 rushing touchdowns and 134 rushing yards against them).
I don’t think we can overthink this one too much. Yes, Miami and Gaskin have “changed it up” frequently this year. But I don’t think we give up this matchup for that fear.
Start Myles Gaskin.
That’s about all I have time for this week, I’m afraid,. Good luck out there and remember to have fun.
Please feel free to ask any questions you have in the comments below or @pahowdy on Twitter.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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