Sunday Six Pack: Week Six
The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!
This Sunday Six Pack is a traditional article at DLF and a part of our content strategy for over six years. As always, we will cover six dynasty-relevant storylines to watch on the Sunday slate of NFL games. I’m honored to be here every week, putting my spin on this series. Most excitingly, it’s become a two-part article this year! Every Monday, my hangover article will drop, reviewing my six-pack based on what happened on Sunday. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into my first storyline!
Laviska Shenault’s Bizarre Usage
In last week’s Six Pack, I discussed the Jaguars’ issues, explicitly surrounding floundering head coach Urban Meyer. I had concerns that Meyer’s incompetent coaching would tank the entire offense, including weapons like Shenault, Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and Marvin Jones. Then, in the Monday hangover, I let loose my anger with Meyer, who called a terrible game plan in week five. As a result, the Jaguars lost a 37-19 stinker, and Shenault had just one catch for 58 yards on three targets.
I have zero idea why Meyer decided to give Shenault only three targets, especially since his 58-yard catch and run was one of the Jaguars’ best plays of the 2021 season. In contrast, Dan Arnold, Jamal Agnew, and Tavon Austin served as featured weapons in the Jaguars’ passing attack. I thought Shenault would see more usage after DJ Chark’s season-ending injury, but that has not happened.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, Shenault’s only top-40 performance came in week four, when Chark suffered a mid-game injury. Once Meyer had time to adjust to losing Chark, he suddenly scripted Shenault out of the game plan, and he finished at WR67 in week five.
The Jaguars play the Dolphins this week in the London game, which means more people will focus on Shenault’s performance and usage. If he puts up another dud game, I believe dynasty managers will begin to abandon him completely. Shenault currently sits at WR40 in DLF’s consensus wide receiver rankings, which seems reasonable or even a slight value. However, if he has another lost season, he’ll likely go into his third year with a third coaching staff, who may bring in their own top receivers. Therefore, Shenault needs to have a big game this week.
The Rise of Kadarius Toney
Suddenly, Toney went from the forgotten man in rookie drafts to a bona fide dynasty asset. He did almost nothing in weeks one and two, temporarily validating his preseason dynasty ADP price tag of WR69 and 154.67 overall.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
However, in week three, the Giants lost Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton to hamstring injuries, opening the door for Toney to step into a starting role. He didn’t do much in that contest, but he earned significant playing time moving forward.
Then, Toney put up two massive games in weeks four and five. In those two games, he totaled 16 receptions on 22 targets for 267 yards, suddenly becoming the Giants’ top receiving weapon. Unfortunately, Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley also suffered injuries in week five, leaving Toney as the last man standing.
It isn’t easy to trade someone like Toney, whose dynasty value is rapidly changing. But suppose Toney puts an exclamation point on his run with a strong game against the Rams. In that case, he will solidify his place as a valuable dynasty asset for almost all dynasty managers. I’m curious to see Toney’s role in the offense, as his first-round draft capital dictates that he should be a significant part of this offense.
The Packers’ Backfield Split and AJ Dillon
The Packers are an interesting fantasy football backfield.
Chart courtesy of DLF Snap Count App.
In week one, dynasty managers got a scare when the Packers lost 38-3 to the Saints, and the backfield looked like a committee. Seventh-round rookie Kylin Hill got involved, while AJ Dillon barely outsnapped him. Unfortunately, none of the running backs truly produced that week, although that week seems like an outlier at this point.
After week one, the Packers seemed to settle on a 2:1 split between Jones and Dillon. Dillon pushed Hill back to the bench, consolidating a small role around a third of the total snaps. However, Dillon failed to find any fantasy relevance until this past week.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Dillon had a decent game in week five, taking eight carries for 30 yards while adding four receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. He built on his interesting week four performance, where he equaled Jones with 15 carries, but he had 81 yards to 48 for Jones. I’m not saying that Dillon is a threat to Jones’ starting role because he isn’t. But head coach Matt LaFleur seems to want to get Dillon more involved, especially in the passing game.
I expect the Packers to win this week against the Bears, which could provide plenty of running back opportunities to go around. I’m curious if Dillon can consolidate more of a 40-45% share instead of the 33% or so he managed early on. If he does, he could undoubtedly affect Aaron Jones’s value. Jones is already a hard sell for me in dynasty, though, considering he’s 26 years old and older than similar alternatives like Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, and Joe Mixon.
Khalil Herbert’s Shining Moment
Last week, the fantasy community saw Damien Williams as a smash fantasy play against the Raiders. To be fair, Williams delivered on that promise with 16 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown and two receptions for 20 yards. However, Williams is a 29-year-old journeyman running back who carries little, if any, long-term dynasty value.
On the other hand, the Bears had another running back who succeeded in week five in sixth-round rookie Khalil Herbert. Herbert had 18 carries for 75 yards, looking impressive as a runner. He didn’t score, and he didn’t contribute in the passing game, so he didn’t excel for fantasy football. But he certainly put himself on the dynasty radar.
The Bears recently placed Williams on the COVID-19 list, which will likely force him to miss this week’s game against the Packers. In addition, David Montgomery remains out with his knee injury, while Tarik Cohen is still on the PUP list. Therefore, the Bears only have Herbert as a legitimate running back, outside of desperation options like Ryan Nall.
It often only takes one big game to give a running back dynasty value for a while, and this game is Herbert’s shot. I’m curious if he takes it, especially since Cohen seems nowhere near returning and Williams is just a guy. If Herbert impresses, he could earn a complementary role to Montgomery long-term, giving him handcuff and flex value.
Does Davis Mills Have Any Future?
Going into the 2021 season, I had little hope for Mills as a fantasy or dynasty option. During the preseason, the Texans committed to making Deshaun Watson a healthy scratch all season and deploying Tyrod Taylor as a bridge starter. It seemed apparent that Mills was more of a project and a potential long-term backup, and the Texans planned to target their franchise quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft. I fully believe the Texans had no intention of playing Mills in 2021, letting him learn behind Taylor.
However, those plans changed when Taylor injured his hamstring in week two. Mills came in and looked awful, beginning a run of mixed performances.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Mills improved in week three versus the Panthers, even though he had no fantasy relevance. He followed that game with an abysmal game against the Bills’ tough defense, where he managed four interceptions and no touchdowns on 21 pass attempts. But in week five, he finally put it all together, throwing for three touchdowns, no interceptions, and over 300 yards against a Patriots’ defense famous for shutting down rookie quarterbacks. He finished as the QB6 last week, which was the first time he was better than the QB28 all season.
I still highly doubt that Mills has much long-term dynasty value. Texans’ head coach David Culley recently stated that Taylor remains the Texans’ starter and will retake the starting job when he returns from injured reserve. However, it doesn’t seem Taylor is that close to coming back, so Mills should get a few more opportunities to change Culley’s mind. I’m just interested in watching him this week against the Colts to see if there’s much more there than an NFL backup.
Ricky Seals-Jones: Streaming Option
It seems like ages ago, but Seals-Jones was once a popular dynasty prospect.
He had a decent rookie year in 2017 in Bruce Arians’ final year coaching the Cardinals, emerging as a potential future receiving option. Unfortunately, Seals-Jones fell victim to the Steve Wilks and Josh Rosen disaster in 2018. Poor coaching and quarterback play limited his second-year breakout, as he only caught 34 of 69 targets for 343 yards and a touchdown.
Then, Seals-Jones’ career took a nosedive. He was the most significant casualty of the Kliff Kingsbury 10 personnel experiment, as Kingsbury flat out released him before the 2019 season even began. Seals-Jones caught on with the Browns and then the Chiefs, but he essentially did nothing before signing with Washington for the 2021 season. Washington under head coach Ron Rivera rarely used backup tight ends, deploying starter Logan Thomas as an every-down player and favoring 11 personnel.
However, everything changed for Seals-Jones when Thomas exited week four’s game early with a hamstring injury.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Washington slid him directly into Thomas’ old role, giving him a 93% snap share, although he only had two catches for 19 yards. But then, in week five, Seals-Jones had a breakout game. He played 99% of the offensive snaps, and he saw nine targets, second on the team behind Terry McLaurin.
Now, Washington faces the Chiefs’ porous defense in week six, which should allow Seals-Jones to have a monster game. Washington also won’t have Curtis Samuel this week, and both McLaurin and Dyami Brown are questionable with injuries. Therefore, I ranked Seals-Jones as a TE1 for the week and a solid streamer.
As for dynasty, it’s important to remember that Seals-Jones is only 26 years old, relatively young for a breakout tight end. He won’t displace Thomas as Washington’s long-term starting tight end as Thomas recently signed a three-year, $24 million contract extension. But if Seals-Jones shows out in Thomas’ absence, he could easily earn a contract as a starter elsewhere in the NFL. I’d recommend adding him off waivers as a speculative add in most dynasty formats and all tight end premium leagues.
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