Sunday Six Pack: Week Five
The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!
This Sunday Six Pack is a traditional article at DLF and a part of our content strategy for over six years. As always, we will cover six dynasty-relevant storylines to watch on the Sunday slate of NFL games. I’m honored to be here every week, putting my spin on this series. Most excitingly, it’s become a two-part article this year! Every Monday, my hangover article will drop, reviewing my six-pack based on what happened on Sunday. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into my first storyline!
Cordarrelle Patterson’s Big Moment
Somehow, Patterson is currently either the WR5 or the RB3 in PPR scoring this year, depending on whether he counts as a running back or a wide receiver on your fantasy platform. There’s no denying that he’s been a fantasy difference-maker.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Patterson has five total touchdowns this year, including three in a massive week four performance. Even though he’s played limited snaps in all four games, he’s managed to outproduce any of the Falcons’ other fantasy options, including Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and Mike Davis.
This week, Ridley and Russell Gage didn’t make the trip for the Falcons’ game against the Jets in London. Therefore, Matt Ryan will have Pitts, Patterson, Hayden Hurst, and Olamide Zaccheus as his top receiving weapons. Considering that Davis has been ineffective at running back, Patterson should have ample opportunities to contribute in the rushing and receiving game against the Jets’ weak defense.
Of course, it’s challenging to imagine Patterson as a true dynasty asset. In March, he turned 30 years old, and this run represents his first period of fantasy relevance in his nine-year career. For the first time, I believe that dynasty and fantasy managers truly trust Patterson in week five, and I rank him as a mid-RB2 for the week. If he has yet another big game, perhaps you can finally acquire a second-round rookie pick for him. Either way, Patterson is more of a fun, incredible story than anything else.
Damien Harris Bounce Back?
Harris has had a bizarre 2021 season so far.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
In weeks one and two, he formed a backfield duo with James White. Harris dominated carries in both contests, while White handled most of the passing-game work. However, White suffered a season-ending hip injury in week three, leaving only Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor as Harris’ backups, as Rhamondre Stevenson was inactive.
Even so, Harris had a terrible game, with six carries for 14 yards and two receptions for -3 yards. Bolden stepped directly in White’s role, contributing three receptions for 23 yards. In week four, Harris was even worse. Somehow, he managed a season-high 61% snap share, but he only had four carries for -4 yards. The Patriots abandoned the run entirely, and once again, Bolden outproduced Harris, taking six receptions for 51 yards.
However, both the Saints in week three and the Buccaneers in week four are formidable run defenses. So perhaps Harris had a couple of down weeks in difficult matchups. But this week, the Patriots face the cupcake Texans defense in what should be a highly positive game script. If Harris once again fails to deliver a fantasy-relevant game, dynasty managers will likely begin to panic.
Urban Meyer’s Issues
At this point, my concerns with Meyer go beyond the Jaguars’ fantasy options. He’s turned the Jaguars into a laughingstock once again, and I highly doubt he lasts the season. Whether he’s fired in-season or not, the Jaguars will almost certainly have a new head coach in 2022.
In week four, DJ Chark suffered a season-ending ankle injury, leaving the Jaguars short of one of their key offensive weapons. Before Chark’s injury, Meyer failed to get Laviska Shenault involved in the offense, but he suddenly became viable once Chark went down. Shenault had six receptions for 99 yards last week, more than doubling his previous receiving output over the first three games.
Unfortunately, the Jaguars may turn into a complete mess, tanking Shenault, Marvin Jones, Trevor Lawrence, and James Robinson, at least for this year. Most notably, Meyer pushed to draft rookie running back Travis Etienne, even though he already had Robinson on the team. If Meyer gets fired, Robinson may have a better chance at winning a 2022 competition with Etienne under a new coaching staff.
In week five, I’m mostly watching to see if anything good can come out of Jacksonville despite Meyer. The Jaguars at least play the Titans’ putrid defense, who gave up 27 points to the Jets last week. If the Jaguars get boat raced this week, I might recommend buying Lawrence if there’s any discount. Despite Meyer’s horrific coaching, I still believe in Lawrence’s talent as the best quarterback prospect in years. There may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to acquire Lawrence at a cost below a first-round superflex startup price.
D’Andre Swift’s Workload
We don’t yet have complete October ADP data at DLF, but Swift was only the RB12 and 20th overall player in September’s data. However, a high-ranking DLF source gave Twitter some insight into Swift’s new position in October’s ADP.
Full Round One of October DLF Dynasty ADP:
1- McCaffrey
2- Swift
3- Jefferson
4- Cook
5- Taylor
6- Lamb
7- Kamara
8- Metcalf
9- Adams
10- Harris
11- Chase
12- Hill— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) October 4, 2021
As you can see, Swift now comes in as the second overall player and the RB2 in 1QB dynasty ADP, behind only Christian McCaffrey. However, I’m not sure if Swift’s usage warrants his current value.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Swift is in a clear timeshare with Jamaal Williams, who has more carries, more yards, more rushing touchdowns, and a far superior YPC. The Lions made Swift a key piece of their passing game, though, as he leads the team in receptions ahead of TJ Hockenson. But, of course, the Lions have Anthony Lynn as their offensive coordinator, and it seems like they want to use Swift like the Chargers deployed Austin Ekeler. Swift comes in as the fantasy RB6 in PPR leagues thus far, behind Derrick Henry, Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Ezekiel Elliott.
Based on the timeline, most of the ADP data occurred after week three but before week four. I bet that if dynasty managers had seen another poor rushing performance from Swift in that game, they might have ranked him differently. Once again, Williams played better on the ground, taking his 14 carries for 66 yards against the Bears.
I want to see if Swift can finally earn more carries in week five or if the Lions are entirely committed to their committee. Swift set a season-high in snap share in week four, so he may get more opportunities against the Vikings in week five. But either way, I completely disagree with his current RB2 and second overall dynasty value. I currently rank him at RB5 and tenth overall, so if he has a big game, I’m likely exploring trade offers.
The End of Myles Gaskin?
As most dynasty managers know, running backs who lack draft capital are vulnerable to being replaced at any time. The Dolphins selected Gaskin in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and he served as a depth option during their messy 2019 season. However, in 2020, he stunningly emerged as the Dolphins’ starter over Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, finishing as the RB24 in only ten games. He also was tenth in fantasy PPG among running backs who played at least five games in 2020.
Going into 2021, it seemed like the Dolphins trusted Gaskin as their starter. They added Malcolm Brown in free agency as a depth option and drafted Gerrid Doaks in the seventh round, complementing previous backup Salvon Ahmed. Doaks failed to make an impact in the preseason, landing on the practice squad. Therefore, Gaskin was the RB26 and 75.17 overall in DLF’s September ADP data.
Unfortunately, Gaskin failed to live up to the value over the first four weeks of the season.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
In weeks one to three, he wasn’t awful, although he failed to score. But in week four, the Dolphins suddenly made Malcolm Brown the starter, giving Gaskin only two carries for three yards and no passing game work.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Gaskin saved his fantasy days with his receiving statistics in the first three games, finishing as the RB23, RB33, and RB29. However, he was the RB77 in his terrible week four performance.
Of course, I don’t expect Gaskin or any Dolphins’ running back to perform well in a horrific week five matchup against the Buccaneers. But I want to see if week four was an aberration or if Brown is now the Dolphins’ starter. Either way, Gaskin is a hard sell in dynasty leagues, but hopefully, he gives us one last sell window with a decent touch share or a touchdown this week.
Terry McLaurin: Alpha WR1
This storyline is more of a pure observation than anything else. McLaurin has been a monster this season, as he’s the WR6 in PPR scoring. He’s performed well despite Washington’s spotty quarterback play, although Taylor Heinicke certainly has outperformed expectations since Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference
McLaurin has 25 catches on 38 targets, 354 yards, and three touchdowns through three games. No other Washington player has more than 15 targets or 12 receptions, and Washington’s receiving weapons recently took a further hit. Logan Thomas just went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, Dyami Brown now has a knee injury, and Curtis Samuel has his own injury struggles.
Therefore, I expect McLaurin to continue to dominate, even against a tough New Orleans defense in week five. I’m perfectly comfortable with his WR11 price in September’s DLF ADP, and I even rank him slightly higher at dynasty WR10. McLaurin is one of my favorite players to watch, so I’m looking forward to this next game.
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