Flooding the Zone: Week Four

As always, a stats refresher before we dive into the fun stuff:

Time Left on Play Clock at Snap – this represents how much time the offense let run off the clock on average before snapping the ball. Teams that snap the ball quickly will have the opportunity to fit more plays into a game, while teams that snap it slower will be burning more clock per play.

First Downs Per Play – this represents how often an offense generated a first down. Offenses that generate first downs often will hold on to the ball longer and have more offensive plays, whereas teams with many three and outs will be forced to punt often.

Offense Plays/G – the above statistics help us understand how a team ran the number of offensive plays per game that they did, and help give us a sense whether or not this statistic should regress in coming weeks.

PAs/G Over Game State Expectation – this is how many pass attempts more or less a team threw relative to what we would expect of the average team in similar score/down/field location/etc. situations. Teams that pass more than expected will give receiving options on the team more opportunities.

Share of Targets to WRs – this gives us an idea how what portion of attempts are making their way to WRs, who will generally be the focus of this piece.

Team Level Stats

Some brief takeaways for your fantasy team:

• BAL: the Ravens are hiding behind the DEN logo in this chart – their offensive efficiency so far this season leaves a bit to be desired. I would expect some improvement on that in the coming weeks, as there isn’t really any reason to think the league has “figured out” Lamar Jackson
• CAR: the 2020 Panthers and Jets both moved at a quicker pace than we’ve seen so far from the 2021 Panthers, so I’d bet on some upside to their total plays for the rest of the season
• JAX: the Jaguars are approaching league average efficiency – if they can combine that with their current pace, at least one of Marvin Jones or Laviska Shenault should be a weekly starter
• KC: this offense is running on all cylinders. Expect a bounce-back game from Travis Kelce in no time
• OAK: the Raiders are moving the wrong direction on the efficiency axis, and I wouldn’t bet on strong regression (I’m a Derek Carr non-truther to be fair). Don’t expect this offense to make anyone but Darren Waller relevant in the passing game
• NE: prior to 2020, the Patriots offense had consistently run quickly. I would expect this shift to stick, providing solid WR2 upside for Jakobi Meyers for the rest of the season

Now let’s look at pass volume:

Quick takeaways:

• BAL: continued shift to near league average in PAs/G relative to expectations provides hope that Mark Andrews and one of Marquise Brown or Rashod Bateman can continue to be solid contributors
• CHI: between low play volume and below expected passing on that volume, this looks like an offense set to disappoint this season. I’m not sure I’m buying low on Allen Robinson
• MIN: the Vikings have trended slightly more pass-happy the past few seasons. That, plus a pop in total plays, should keep Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each relevant this season. I’m interested in buying Thielen cheap on contenders
• SEA: I hit on this last week, but the total plays for the Seahawks have got to come up. Buy low in Tyler Lockett if you can

Individual Team Spotlights

Let’s briefly run through some of the stats I’ll be highlighting here again:

Pass Snaps – calculated stat using the team’s pass/run ratio and the number of snaps the player played. This is a knock-off version of routes run.

Air Yards – the total distance the ball traveled down the field across all targets a player received.

Targets Per Implied Pass Snap – target total/pass snaps. The hope is this lets us catch a glimpse of some part-time players (rookies in particular) that are excelling in smaller roles.

Air Yards Per Implied Pass Snap – air yards total/pass snaps. Helps us understand the role various players are playing – players with a higher number in this stat relative to teammates may be playing more of a downfield role.

Carolina Panthers

DJ Moore is a WR1 and it turns out he can even score touchdowns. Hopefully you bought low before this, but if you didn’t I would still be interested if you’re paying less than top-five WR pricing. If Carolina is going to continue to be creative getting him the ball, a top-five finish in 2021 is within range.

Unfortunately, Robby Anderson has taken a real step back vs. last year, partially due to his role change to more of a deep threat. You probably can’t sell for much value, so I’m fine holding him on contenders – he’s the sort of player whose value in a sale won’t offset his value on your roster.

We’re still waiting on a Terrace Marshall breakout game, but I remain interested in him. Try to buy for less than a first if you can.

Tommy Tremble might be a thing one day, but not anytime soon.

Dallas Cowboys

Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are going to have trouble returning value on ADP if this passing game doesn’t ramp up. It is notable that despite the lower volume, Lamb is outproducing Cooper on a per snap basis. I still view Lamb as a sell at WR2 overall dynasty pricing but would bet on a rebound in pass volume too. Better days are ahead.

Michael Gallup may be back as soon as week six – without a real step up in pass volume, he’s unlikely to be relevant as a standalone player but could definitely be an impediment to Lamb and Cooper.

Dalton Schultz looks solid and is worth a start every week. None of the other WRs or TEs should be leaving your bench.

Indianapolis Colts

I’ve been a Michael Pittman Jr skeptic, but his start to the season looks legit. He’s a hold for me right now, but closer to a buy than a sell. Another week or two of this and we may have to start buying.

No other non-RBs on this roster matter.

Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf looks like a superstar, if folks are considering him outside their top-five WRs (based on some chats I’ve had on Twitter, some people are), I’m buying.

I know it’s been a disappointing couple of games, but Tyler Lockett is still Tyler Lockett. Buy on contenders and start him confidently – better days are ahead and you don’t want to miss them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This passing game is looking like the rare case where there really are too many cooks in the kitchen. I would not anticipate Chris Godwin sticking at a ~16% target share, but without an injury it’s hard to see more than WR2 upside consistently. I would be interested in pivoting off of him to someone like Tee Higgins if you can make it happen.

The demise of Mike Evans was overstated, as it always is. If you’re a contender, he’s a buy. Just understand he’s probably retiring on your bench.

Antonio Brown looks really good on limited snaps, but until he’s getting a larger share he won’t be a consistent starter. He’s still a solid buy for contenders if you’re getting a discount, but don’t expect many fireworks without an injury.

That’s it for this week. If you’ve got any feedback about the structure of this report or questions about the topics, please leave a comment or hit me up on Twitter @cooper_dff.