Tuesday Transactions: Week Two
Week two of the NFL season challenged everything we thought we knew after the first week. After a limited off-season program, a shortened preseason, and a ton of guesswork going into the first week, dynasty players entered the week thinking they knew exactly how things were going to play out this year.
Week two offers contradictory thoughts and an early assessment of where your teams stand going forward. Here are five moves to consider entering week three:
Miles Sanders, RB PHI – Buy
This one probably seems random as Sanders is coming off 14 touches and an uninspiring 6.9 PPR points in week two. At RB19 in the August ADP, Sanders has seen his value level off over the past nine months and most in the dynasty community have given up on any appreciable upside.
Diving deeper into some usage numbers, his career points per touch and touchdown-independent points per touch are higher than Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. His rookie season 63 targets give some encouragement that the difference-making skill is present. Finally, he is likely available in most leagues as the luster has worn off at this stage in his career.
The Move – look to acquire Sanders by pivoting off another running back such as Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon or Ezekiel Elliott. I would prefer him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Get creative, consider him a direct replacement for any of your starters and fish around for what type of plus you can pivot into.
Carson Wentz, QB IND – Sell
Another slow start and another injury for Wentz. After leaving the week two loss against the Rams with injuries to both ankles, the window on Wentz is fading. The trade to the Colts bought him new life in dynasty but since then, the ride has been full of turbulence.
Of qualifying quarterbacks (more than 20 attempts), Wentz has been pressured at the eighth-highest rate and he ranked 34th out of 35 with only 3.0 intended air yards per completion. This is continuing his 2020 campaign where he ranked 34th in passer rating, 28th in QBR, and a pathetic 6.0 yards per attempt.
The Move – Wentz is on the move for any future superflex first-round pick. I would prefer betting against longevity in this range and moving him for Daniel Jones plus or Tom Brady plus. Even if logistics force Wentz into starting another year for the Colts, the upside is not present anymore.
Chris Evans, RB CIN – Buy/Add
Joe Mixon has handled 54 touches through two games and as good as he can be, history says this is not heading down a promising track for him to make it through the season healthy. Evans is the back to have in Cincinnati behind Mixon and despite Samaje Perine being listed as the “handcuff”, Evans offers much more versatility, and a three-down skillset should an injury take place.
The sixth-round pick out of Michigan drew rave reviews in training camp and for depleted running back builds, will end up being a factor at some point in 2021.
The Move – Evans is difficult to acquire directly for a pick. As soon as you ask to buy for less than a third, the price increases. Attempt to move a capped running back like Tevin Coleman, Justin Jackson, Devontae Booker or Giovani Bernard for Evans as opposed to sending a pick straight up.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT – Sell
I debated which side to put this one on. With Diontae Johnson set to miss time with an injury and Ben Roethlisberger’s 6.7 YPA through week two, Smith-Schuster is set to really pile up the points over the next month. Sitting at WR22 in the latest ADP and pending free agency, look for the market to rally around the “acquire” take in the coming weeks and use that as the signal to go the opposite way.
This does not mean I am out on him. Quite the opposite. If you have him in your stable of “threshold” wide receivers, ride the production spike out, but understand that being able to cash out at a high point for a player at this position and with a capped value ceiling is worth exploring.
The Move – Getting a future superflex first is a win. Ideally, I move him and received a lesser “threshold” wide receiver back such as Marvin Jones, Nelson Agholor, Cole Beasley or someone even more highly sought after. Sterling Shepard and Jakobi Meyers come to mind as options slightly more desirable. This is a pure process move and if you come out on the right side, the “throw-in” receiver you get back may match Smith-Schuster’s rest-of-season production and you add to your asset chest with an extra first in the bank.
Roster Clogging Wide Receivers – Sell/Drop
There are many names I could add to this list but for the sake of process over players, I went with the high-level group instead of individual players. How do I define a “roster-clogging” wide receiver? A few things. Any receiver with less than ten percent market share, outside of the top 50 in ADP and over the age of 23. Use your discretion, but this should filter out young player stashes and productive veterans that could fall within the “threshold” this season.
Some names that fit these criteria include Russell Gage, Darius Slayton, TY Hilton, Jamison Crowder, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, Parris Campbell, Tre’Quan Smith and Allen Lazard. It is unlikely these players find your lineups, even in start 11 or 12 and the opportunity cost of the roster spot out-paces their market value.
The Move – Trade these guys for picks. Any picks you can get. Target third-round picks. If you fail on this angle, consider moving them for running backs who are on active rosters. The likelihood you can forecast usage for a running back is much higher and the turnover at the position will make them easier to drop when it comes time. The last-ditch move is to drop them but, in some cases, the flexibility of a roster spot is worth more.
CONCLUSION
It is way too early to give up on the season but challenge what you thought you knew after week one and apply that to what we saw in week two and re-assess. Sample sizes are still extremely small and there is a lot of season left to go but consider planning for these crucial weeks upcoming and be ready to pull the trigger on positive value moves whenever it presents itself.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
