Five Players with a Lot to Prove in Week Two
After week one, there are a number of question marks surrounding some key players heading into week two. Today we will be discussing those very players who really need to prove themselves and more importantly, what to do with them in your lineups if they fail to do so.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry had a tough start in week one with 17 rush attempts for 58 yards, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. With an additional three receptions for 19 yards in the game, he contributed 10.7 total PPR points. Keep in mind, this game got out of hand fast. The Titans fell behind and had to depend on their passing game. Unfortunately, Ryan Tannehill was not playing tremendously well and the offense was generally struggling, which only further contributed to Henry’s challenging day.
To be fair, we should have expected a bit of a down week from Henry. He was extremely limited in the preseason, seeing exactly zero rush attempts as the Titans did not want to risk their workhorse running back possibly getting injured. As he was taking his first snaps of the entire NFL season in week one, I would wait to judge too harshly. He had a similar start last year, averaging 12.3 points per game through the first two games, and we know full well where the rest of his season went from there.
That said, if Henry does not show any signs of improvement this week, we may need to consider his fantasy football outlook. Remember, he is a 27-year-old running back coming off a career year in yards and touchdowns. However, he has not had any really serious injuries, and he is built like a tank. He is made to last longer than most other running backs. So at this point, I am not too concerned about Henry as an asset, but week two will show a lot.
Elijah Mitchell, RB SF
Mitchell, on the other hand, is off to a great start with his week one performance. With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert’s knee injury, the stage was set for Mitchell to launch. He had 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown. He unfortunately had no receiving work which was difficult to see. Still though, even without those targets, he was a top 15 running for the week.
It is important to note that no other 49ers player had more than three carries. Mitchell was the undisputed top option in the backfield which is unusual for this offense. In the 49ers 2020 regular season, a running back hit 15 or more carries five times. San Francisco tends to use a very split committee in their backfield. With the increasing likelihood of Sermon’s return, a return to their previous offense seems more likely and Mitchell could be the number two back for the 49ers. He can still be very relevant for fantasy football but some people spent upwards of 70% of their FAAB on him to pick him up. For a number two running back, that is likely not the best investment.
Additionally, Mitchell faces the Eagles defense this week, who were 13th against running backs in terms of fantasy points scored last season. That number might not scare you too much, but they achieved those numbers with an injured and therefore diminished defensive line. That is no longer the case. They are coming off a big win against Atlanta and they are pumped, fully healthy, and ready to shut down the 49ers’ offense.
No doubt, Mitchell has a challenging week ahead, but he needs to prove he is the lead back for the San Francisco backfield. If he does not, it would be very concerning for his fantasy outlook, especially if Sermon has a nice game. The 49ers traded up in the third round and drafted Sermon to eventually take that lead role. If Mitchell shows he is anything less than fully capable to carry that mantle, Sermon’s lead role could begin sooner rather than later.
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
Hurts was absolutely electric last week in his week one matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. He completed 77% of his passes (27 out of 35) for 264 yards and three touchdowns, adding seven attempts for 62 yards in the running game. He was second on his team in rushing yards behind Miles Sanders who had 74. He also did a great job of spreading the ball, having four players with four or more catches. Had Zach Ertz not missed time in the game, he would have joined that group of four as well.
Interestingly though, Hurts only had four passes for 15 or more air yards in that game, so not many chunk plays. Thankfully, Philly did not need to throw the ball deep because they won easily with a score of 32-6. Head coach Nick Sirianni kept Hurts comfortable for his week one start which is great for his NFL status, but not as good for fantasy. Nonetheless, Hurts had an outstanding game against Atlanta.
In week two though, Hurts faces a San Francisco defense that only allowed 14 points per game to the quarterback position for the 2020 season. That number is even more daunting when you consider the number of injuries they experienced. This 49ers’ defense is loaded and healthy. With Hurts having just faced Atlanta in week one, who allowed the second-most points to the quarterback position last season, week two could really be a wake-up call. So Hurts needs to show us this week that he can thrive even with a tough matchup. If he can have a good week, he is a full go for this season. If not, then we know the big game was more about Atlanta’s defense and less about Hurts’ talent as a player.
Najee Harris, RB PIT
Buffalo contributed to a tough week one for Harris. He had 16 rush attempts for 45 yards and added one reception for another four. Overall, it was a bit of a dud performance from the star rookie. However, there are some things to keep in mind before we start to panic about Harris’s fantasy football outlook.
First, let’s cut him some slack – Harris just played his first-ever NFL game with a full workload. Running backs do often break out in their rookie year, but in the first game, we should not expect a huge performance, especially against a tougher Buffalo defense that averaged tenth in points per game allowed to the running back position over the past two seasons.
Second, Harris saw 100% of the running back rush attempts. He was the guy for the Pittsburgh backfield, which is what we have expected to see since they selected him in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft.
With all that in mind, let’s look to week two. Harris is playing against the Las Vegas Raiders who last year gave up the fifth-most points to the running back position. In their week one game against Baltimore, they allowed 31 total fantasy points to Latavius Murray and Ty’Son Williams. Harris is much more talented than either of those backs and looks poised for a great opportunity to prove himself this week. Should Harris put up another performance like he did last week, the concern would be fair.
Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Sutton was absolutely shut down last week by James Bradberry. He was pretty much forgotten in the game, with only one reception for 14 yards on three targets. With Sutton locked down, the other Broncos receivers thrived. Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant each had six catches while Tim Patrick brought in four. However, Patrick was eventually more involved after Jeudy went down with a bad ankle injury.
Sutton had a tough matchup in week one with one of the best corners in the league right now in James Bradberry. He also just had his first NFL game coming off a brutal ACL tear. So, I think for week one we can cut him some slack. But moving into week two, he has a matchup with Jacksonville, who just allowed a solid passing game from Tyrod Taylor. The Jacksonville defense is just awful and this game has a solid 45-point over/under. I would expect even higher because that Jacksonville offense is pretty loaded and they are going to find a way to score. Additionally, the game will likely be close and that will lead to a ton of throwing and scoring.
The Broncos’ receiving core outside of Sutton is also a question mark right now. Does Fant step up again? Maybe KJ Hamler makes the jump, maybe Tim Patrick? It is difficult to know. With the Broncos’ receiving core up in the air a bit, Sutton is likely to see more volume. So Sutton has a great opportunity in a likely high-scoring game against a bad defense where the receiving core around him is full of question marks. If he is unable to prove himself this week, we can certainly be concerned about his fantasy outlook for this season.
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