Football is Back: A Dynasty Preview for Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don’t know about you, but I am just delighted to have regular season football back in our lives. Here are a few storylines I’m watching in Thursday night’s opener between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. Let’s jump into this bonus article!

The Cowboys’ Tight End Split

I mentioned the Cowboys’ tight end situation on Twitter recently.

Schultz ahead of Jarwin is a bit surprising. I’ve been off Jarwin completely and on Schultz at a massive discount in dynasty. Not sure if this matters at all though 👌 https://t.co/cJhbMFIFuL

— Tyler (@TylerFFCreator) September 5, 2021

If you read the entire thread, you will notice that the Cowboys originally listed Blake Jarwin as their starting tight end at the start of the preseason. However, they now changed their depth chart, going with Dalton Schultz as their nominal starter. I already wrote about the Cowboys’ tight end situation as part of a summer sleeper article, where I highlighted Schultz as a solid sleeper.

Of course, the Cowboys have three star receivers in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. So if Schultz and Jarwin split time as receivers, it’s likely that neither will be fantasy-relevant. However, I want to see their snap split and target distribution in week one. In this case, I will believe what I see almost immediately.

Whoever leads the way will become the higher-ranked player in my dynasty rankings. Right now, I rank them back to back, with Jarwin slightly ahead. But Jarwin is ten positional spots and 53 overall spots in front of Schultz in DLF’s August ADP. So like my article, I prefer Schultz’s value. I’m just interested in watching and seeing what happens here.

Is Zeke Back?

Last year, Ezekiel Elliott had a somewhat down season, finishing as the RB9.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

As you can see, he had career-lows in yards per carry, carries per game, yards per game, and he tied for his lowest rushing touchdown output. He also struggled with a calf injury, his first significant injury issue in his NFL career. Previously, Elliott was one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy football.

Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

Before 2020, Elliott averaged between 19.73 and 21.27 PPR fantasy points per game in each of his four seasons. But in 2020, he dropped significantly to 15.58 PPR PPG.

It seemed like everything went wrong for Elliott in 2020, though. In addition to his injury issues, the Cowboys also lost Dak Prescott in week five to a season-ending ankle injury, which tanked the entire offense.

Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.

Interestingly, the player splits app shows that Elliott was excellent while Prescott was in the lineup. He averaged 23.1 PPR PPG, higher than any of his previous seasons. But without Prescott, Elliott suddenly became a mediocre fantasy option, with only 11.8 PPR PPG. He suffered across the board, dropping off in all fantasy-relevant categories.

Therefore, I want to know which Elliott we’re going to get for the 2021 season. Did he struggle down the stretch because of his injury, lack of Prescott, or a more overarching decline in skills? I suspect that it’s mostly Prescott, as he makes the whole Cowboys’ attack run correctly. Yes, the Buccaneers are a horrible matchup for running backs, and star guard Zack Martin will miss this game with COVID-19. But either way, I still want to see how Elliott looks to judge if I’m comfortable hanging onto him in dynasty formats.

Can Tom Brady Keep Being Tom Brady?

At this point, it doesn’t seem very intelligent to bet against Brady. He’s defied the fantasy and real-life odds for years, winning a Super Bowl in his age-43 season in 2020 while finishing as the QB7. He turned 44 years old in August, but he shows no signs of slowing down. The Buccaneers also recently extended Brady’s deal through 2022, locking him in through his age-45 season.

However, we all know that eventually, Father Time wins every battle. There will come a day where Brady is no longer one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he ultimately falls off our dynasty rosters. Right now, he comes in as the QB21 with an ADP of 55.75 in DLF’s Superflex ADP. As your resident ageist, I naturally have zero interest in Brady at his dynasty price. He cannot possibly gain any dynasty value, and he’ll lose all his remaining value when he retires.

This take is more of a sentimental one. I’m curious if Brady can continue his excellent play, especially to support his high-priced passing weapons. In 2021, I rank Chris Godwin at WR14, Mike Evans at WR19, and Antonio Brown at WR37. If all those receivers want to finish at those ranks, Brady needs to keep being Brady. The Cowboys are a horrible defense, so I expect him to carve them up. I’ll have some slight concerns if he doesn’t, although I won’t want to overreact.

The Tampa Running Back Split

I feel like we’ve discussed frustration with the Buccaneers’ backfield for years, even before Bruce Arians became the head coach. In 2018, they drafted Ronald Jones in the second round, but he barely contributed, as head coach Dirk Koetter leaned on veteran Peyton Barber over Jones. The Buccaneers fired Koetter after 2018, replacing him with Arians.

Unfortunately, the backfield remained muddy.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Arians split carries relatively equally between Jones and Barber in 2019, even though Jones played far better. He also wasted third-down work on Dare Ogunbowale, who provided nothing exciting.

Then in 2020, the backfield split continued.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Arians continued to involve other backs like Ke’Shawn Vaughn and LeSean McCoy, on top of his committee of Jones and Leonard Fournette. Jones seemed to earn the lead role throughout the season, but suddenly, everything flipped in the playoffs, causing further confusion. I covered some of those playoff storylines in one of my earliest articles for DLF, where I recommended selling Jones based on his negative future outlook.

The Buccaneers re-signed Fournette this off-season to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with some added incentives. After that signing, I covered Jones vs. Fournette in a dynasty battle article, where I thought both players could have borderline RB2 value. However, that all changed when the Buccaneers acquired Giovani Bernard in free agency, making him their new third-down back.

Now, I worry that Arians could create another three-way committee, cannibalizing everyone’s value. If Jones and Fournette split rushing work 50-50 and Bernard takes all the receiving work, this backfield will look eerily like the old Patriots’ backfields. Bernard will serve as a James White-type player, with the other backs focusing on running. I just want to see the early snap and touch counts here, especially to decide on Jones and Fournette’s future value for the rest of the 2021 season.

Football is Back: A Dynasty Preview for Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers