Dynasty Danger: Matt Ryan

Tyler Justin Karp

One of the most important parts of succeeding in dynasty leagues is getting out from under dying assets before the bottom falls out. Even though some of these players have already declined in value, I believe they will suffer a further decline shortly. It can be challenging to sell veterans at this time of year, but I want to put these players on your radar at least. Dynasty managers may want to consider moving on sooner rather than later.

When breaking down a dynasty danger player, I want to split my analysis into three sections: career statistics, future situation, and ADP and trade value. If you want to read my previous articles in this series, I’ve included them at the bottom of this piece. Let’s jump into it!

Background

Like some of the articles in this series, I want to begin by mentioning that Matt Ryan is a solid NFL quarterback. He’s had an excellent career thus far, offering consistency for fantasy managers and the Falcons. However, in dynasty fantasy football, it’s always better to get out too early rather than too late. Therefore, I believe that now is the time to get out from under Ryan before his value plummets. But first, let’s take a look back at Ryan’s career up until this point.

Career Statistics

Of course, Ryan has a very long NFL career. The Falcons selected him third overall in the 2008 NFL Draft, and he has served as their starting quarterback ever since. In his entire career, Ryan missed two games in 2009 and one in 2019, playing every other game in his 13 NFL seasons. No matter what, Ryan has always been available for his dynasty managers, making him a safe quarterback asset in superflex and even 1QB leagues.

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Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

As you can see, Ryan started a bit on the cooler side, finishing as a QB2 in 2008 and 2009. However, from 2010-2014, he became the pinnacle of fantasy consistency. He played every game in those five seasons, and he finished as precisely the QB7 overall in three of those five years. In the other two years, he was the QB6 and QB11, so he was in a similar range. He also threw between 26 and 32 touchdowns each year.

Since 2015, though, Ryan’s career has been a bit more of a roller coaster, coinciding with his touchdown rate.

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Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

As I mentioned above, he threw between 26 and 32 touchdowns each year from 2010-2014. However, from 2015-2018, he fell outside of that range in each season. In 2015 and 2017, he threw 21 and 20 touchdowns, career-lows outside of his rookie year. He finished as the QB19 and QB15 in those two years, primarily because of his low touchdown rate. In contrast, he threw for his two career-high touchdown outputs in 2016 and 2018, with 38 and 35, finishing as the QB2 in both years.

In 2019 and 2020, though, Ryan regressed to his previous touchdown rate. He threw 26 touchdowns in each season, in line with his 2010-2014 output. Because of his modest touchdown rate, he finished as the QB10 and QB12 in those years. Up until now, Ryan has mostly been a reliable QB1, even if he’s only truly hit high-end upside in his two outlier seasons in 2016 and 2018.

Future Situation

Ryan finds himself in an interesting future situation. His contract status secures his role on the Falcons through 2022. According to Spotrac, the Falcons would incur a $40 million dead cap charge to release Ryan before the 2022 season, not even including a $7.5 million roster bonus that guarantees on the third league day of 2022.

The Falcons have a new head coach in Arthur Smith and a new general manager in Terry Fontenot, who inherited multiple mistakes from the old regime. One of those mistakes included Ryan’s massive contract and signing bonus conversions under that contract, leaving the Falcons in a horrible cap situation. To comply with the 2021 cap, they had to convert $21 million of salary into a signing bonus, forcing them into keeping Ryan for 2022.

However, the Falcons also had to trade Julio Jones to the Titans to save their future cap situation, leaving Ryan without his most valuable weapon. Since Jones entered the league in 2011, Ryan threw for 4,000 or more passing yards each season, which he had not done without Jones. Let’s use the DLF Player Splits App to see how Ryan’s numbers look since 2011 with and without Jones in the lineup.

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Ryan averaged 2.1 fewer PPR points/game during his 25 games without Jones, throwing for significantly fewer passing yards, fewer passing touchdowns, but more interceptions. If you look at the 16-game pace, the quarterback on the left looks like an excellent quarterback, with almost 29 touchdowns over an entire season, yet just under 12 interceptions. However, the quarterback on the right doesn’t look exciting, with 25 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Yes, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts with the fourth overall pick, and I believe that Pitts will significantly impact their offense. But he will not be on Jones’ level from the jump, leaving Ryan to lean on Calvin Ridley as his primary weapon. While Ridley is a strong receiver, I think Ryan will miss having Julio in the lineup.

Additionally, Ryan recently turned 36 years old, so he may face the quarterback cliff, which often starts to appear around that age. I’m not saying that he’s going to drop into oblivion, but I have concerns. I see that QB14 value on the right as his weekly ceiling moving forward. He’s okay for this year and likely next as a weekly QB2, but I doubt he hits weekly QB1 value again. Ryan’s best ability is his availability, as he essentially never misses time. Therefore, he’ll likely finish around QB14 on a seasonal basis, with mid-QB2 results from week to week.

ADP and Trade Value

Right now, Ryan is the QB21 in DLF 1QB ADP, with an overall ADP of 164.83. He seems overvalued at that price, but it barely matters at that stage of 1QB startup drafts. However, in superflex ADP, he’s the QB22 and 57.25 overall. I rank Ryan as the QB26 and 81st overall in superflex dynasty formats, so far, far lower than his current ADP. Young wide receivers like Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, and Tee Higgins all come in behind Ryan, and I would easily rather invest in any of them over Ryan.

Let’s use the DLF Trade Finder to explore some possible options to sell Ryan.

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Unfortunately, almost nothing in the trade finder has Ryan valued anywhere near his ADP value, similar to a concept I discussed recently. However, this one trade is an excellent deal, turning Ryan and Jones into a stud in Stefon Diggs. I would make this trade without a second thought.

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Unfortunately, trades like this one are more representative of the common trade available in the trade finder. Here, the Ryan manager received a 2022 first-round pick with a few smaller pieces on each side. I slightly prefer Davis Mills and a 2022 third-rounder to Malcolm Brown and Jamaal Williams, but it’s not much more than simply trading Ryan for a future first-round pick.

Even so, I would accept a deal like that over riding Ryan into the ground on my dynasty team. He’s a strong sell for me at his current price, especially if you can find a believer in your league. Someone has to like him to explain his current ADP, so find that manager and try and make a deal before it’s too late.

Previous Entries: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Dalvin Cook, Carson Wentz, DeVante Parker, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks

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Dynasty Danger: Matt Ryan