Dobber Down: The Dynasty Impact of the J.K. Dobbins Injury
The preseason has been extraordinarily cruel to running backs this year. First, Cam Akers tore his achilles. That was followed by Travis Etienne dealing with a lisfranc fracture in his foot. And now, it has been confirmed second year running back JK Dobbins has indeed torn his ACL and will join the other two elite dynasty assets and miss the entire season. It’s really quite amazing when you think about it. We aren’t even to week one and a little less than 10% of the starting running backs in the league have already been lost for the year. It certainly seems “Zero Running Back” truthers are clearly winning the” strategy of the season” so far in 2021. With every injury comes opportunity and this one to Dobbins is no different. As such, many dynasty values have changed as a result. Let’s run down the players affected.
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
This just stinks for Dobbins. A year ago, the Ravens eased him into the fold, but he was very effective when called upon. On the year, Dobbins posted 805 rushing yards, 18 catches, 120 receiving yards and scored nine touchdowns while averaging a very promising six yards per carry. Baltimore was planning on hitching their wagon to the duo of Dobbins and Gus Edwards this season, letting veteran Mark Ingram leave for greener pastures. As a result, Dobbins worked his way all the way up to an ADP of 25. Now dealing with a season ending injury, that number is going to clearly fall in the next few months. While torn ACLs are nothing to joke about (and it may be a little more than just that), it seems like every elite runner has to deal with one in their career and this shouldn’t stop Dobbins from developing into a great player. The challenge is going to be time now. Dobbins should be back next season, but it typically takes a complete season post-recovery for players to be 100% back to form. If that’s the case, dynasty owners are likely looking at three or four potentially dominant seasons from Dobbins instead of five or six.
Gus Edwards, RB BAL
It’s clearly once again time to get on the “Gus Bus.” Edwards just seems to be in the right place at the right time and this is injury represents a huge opportunity for him. Owners who had Edwards as a handcuff should be pretty thrilled. After all, the Ravens were likely going to give Dobbins 60-70% of the carries and let Edwards have the rest. If that was the case and Edwards now gets closer to 75-80% of the rushing attempts, he’s going to be a solid RB2 and your team has avoided a total calamity. Edwards is no slouch, either. He tends to get positive yardage with every carry and has a career rushing average of more than five yards per tote – not exactly numbers from a talentless player. The question is going to be just how much Baltimore decides to use him. He’s never had more than 144 carries in a given season and has only 18 career receptions, so there’s clearly some risk here. In the end, he likely won’t be a full-time back, but his arrow is pointing up now and would become a prime candidate for a contending team looking for a short-term starter.
Ty’Son Williams, RB BAL
Uhh, who?
Remember this name, folks. When Coach John Harbaugh was interviewed about the injury, he said the team would be fine because they have “Gus and Ty” – that Ty is none other than Ty’Son Williams, who has shown very well in camp this year. In addition, he’s looked solid in preseason action, posting 130 rushing yards and a score on a robust 5.4 yards per carry. If you don’t know who he is, it’s not embarrassing. Williams bounced around school in college with stops at North Carolina, South Carolina and eventually BYU. With only 233 career carries, he went undrafted and spent last year on the Ravens practice squad. With recent reports swirling that indicate he’s leapfrogged Justice Hill on the depth chart, Williams instantly becomes a solid deep add in dynasty leagues. While he would have a long way to go for dynasty relevance, savvy owners always look for running backs who have opportunities. While this likely isn’t the next James Robinson, it’s tough to find another relatively unknown player who could have an opportunity like this one. If he gets cut, you drop him. If he turns out to be something productive, you’ve just nailed some value for free. One thing we know for sure – his physicality and toughness are hallmarks of the Ravens. If you’re going to throw a dart before the season starts, this is one I’d highly recommend.
Justice Hill, RB BAL
Much like Williams, Hill is clearly on the radar. While reports do indicate Williams has jumped over him, there are a couple of things to remember. First, if we believed every camp report out there, we would need rosters of 300 players. Second, Hill is a very different player compared to both Williams and Edwards. He looks a little more shifty and could certainly be used as the pass catching back this season. He has the looks of a solid waiver wire addition or late round stash in dynasty leagues as there could be some real PPR upside with him this season.
David Johnson and Mark Ingram, RBs HOU
The Texans are reportedly willing to have a fire sale with any and all veterans being available. With a loaded backfield consisting of David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram, it’s certainly conceivable the Ravens could look to reunite with Ingram or see what Johnson has left in the tank. Indications are they’re not looking to trade for a veteran, but this is clearly a situation to monitor. Meanwhile the ADP of this pair has reached DEFCON 1.
Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell FA RBs
These two veterans are still out job hunting and reportedly waiting for the right offer. In all reality, most teams likely believe they’re just cooked. With Bell’s recent ineffectiveness and Gurley’s balky knees, it’s hard to see either of these two doing anything but muddying the waters if they land on any team, no less Baltimore. While the Ravens actually had Gurley in for a visit not too long ago, it seems they’re not interested at the moment.
In the end, the Dobbins injury gives us some value boosts (Edwards and Dobbins), a sleeper (Williams) and a player to target if he loses too much value over the next few months (Dobbins). All in all, this injury is going to be very significant in dynasty leagues this year.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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