2021 Summer Sleeper: Las Vegas Raiders

Kevin OBrien

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end-of-the-roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top 175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next James Robinson is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders added two wide receivers in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. However, they only played in 13 and 12 games respectively and combined for fewer total points (120.4) in PPR than 2019 fifth-round pick Hunter Renfrow (131.6).

Renfrow was able to capitalize on his opportunities, including an 84-yard game on six receptions – plus a touchdown – versus the New England Patriots in week three. While Ruggs and Edwards have the talent edge on Renfrow and are likely the one-two combo heading into the 2021 season, Renfrow could fit right into the offense as the WR3 and provide solid depth at the back end of your dynasty roster.

I expect Renfrow to squeeze out John Brown for opportunities while providing good upside should Ruggs or Edwards miss games. In 1QB leagues, Brown is going before Renfrow. In my opinion, they should be swapped in ADP, as I would much prefer the age-25 Renfrow over Brown entering his age-31 season.

Player ADP Rank
Henry Ruggs 106.33 WR49
Bryan Edwards 143.83 WR63
John Brown 211.67 WR87
Hunter Renfrow 236.17 WR112

 

So he is my Summer Sleeper.

Hunter Renfrow, WR

Category: Sleeper

Renfrow was the 149th pick in 2019. While playing at Clemson, Renfrow was an average-to-good receiver, and literally won a ‘hustle’ award in 2016. He always has played more than and above the level that people expected of him. His ceiling is not likely to reach that of Julian Edelman, but he fits that gritty mold.

Renfrow’s measurables are nothing special, with his best traits coming in the 60- and 20-yard shuttles. He is in the 77th percentile in the three-cone drill. While his physical attributes won’t provide an edge, his short-area quickness and toughness can provide the Raiders with a solid WR3 option.

As a sleeper target, we expect Renfrow to be rostered in most leagues and probably available in only about 10% of leagues. As a trade candidate, I would expect he is a good option to add when asking for an extra player to even out a trade. His trade value is right around a third-round rookie pick.

The idea of a sleeper is the overall community is not paying attention to a player’s potential or opportunity within the team’s offense. Recently, The Athletic’s Tashan Reed published an update on the Raiders training camp progress and noted that Renfrow is consistently running with the first-team offense.

Reed said: “The Raiders are expected to carry six wide receivers on the 53-man roster, and that group appears to be all but set. The trio of Henry Ruggs III, Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow has consistently run with the first-team offense, and their backup lineup has been stable as well: John Brown, Zay Jones and Willie Snead IV. Brown and Jones have been interchangeable at the “X” and “Z” positions, while Snead has been a mainstay at slot receiver behind Renfrow, who views the veteran’s presence as a positive.”

This snippet from the article gives a very clear picture that Renfrow is getting his opportunities, and playing ahead of the veterans who the Raiders have added. This potential elevates Renfrow from a top-250 player to becoming a top-175 player as a depth wide receiver on your dynasty roster.

Renfrow’s current 1QB dynasty startup ADP is 236.17 overall as the WR112. If Ruggs or Edwards falter in 2021 and Renfrow takes advantage of the opportunities, I could envision him jumping 50-75 spots in ADP into the Cole Beasley/Christian Kirk range of 140 overall.

The ideal trade cost for Renfrow would be a future third-round rookie pick. However, I would anticipate a current owner would not be willing to part with him directly for a future pick. If you can get him as a throw-in on a larger deal, this would probably be a more realistic possibility to acquire at a lower cost. Renfrow should be rostered in all formats with 240 rostered players or more.

kevin obrien
2021 Summer Sleeper: Las Vegas Raiders