2021 Team Injury Preview: Buffalo Bills
Injuries are inevitable. They occur every season for every team and are often unpredictable. It becomes one of the most infuriating factors for fantasy managers, often sinking a team’s chances and hopes at a championship.
My goal with writing this team preview series is to highlight the players you should be concerned about on your dynasty roster or while drafting your redraft squad. Who should you avoid at cost? Who should you keep an eye on as a possible “injury replacement”? Who should you stop fading unnecessarily due to injuries? I hope to answer all of those questions for you.
It is important to note that I am unable to predict injuries. Even players who have been injured frequently can change their exercise routines or training habits and reduce further risk for injury. My job is to simply highlight those players who carry risk and help you navigate your decisions based on that risk. My statements on injuries are not “end all be all” – ultimately, you must factor in the information and decide for yourself if you are willing to gamble on the risk at hand.
Next on the list: Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen, QB
- 10/28/11: Right clavicle fracture; missed four games in sophomore season of high school
- 9/12/15: Right clavicle fracture; first career start in college; season-ending
- 11/11/17: Right AC joint sprain; missed final two games of season, played in bowl game
- 10/14/18: Right UCL sprain; missed four games
- 9/29/19: Concussion; played the following week
- 11/29/20: Right MCL sprain, High ankle sprain; missed zero games
Allen carries a moderate risk for me despite steering clear of any clavicle or UCL injuries since 2018. Two significant clavicle fractures (he reportedly fractured his clavicle in seven places in 2015). There is some slight concern given his mobility and how often he seeks contact or places himself in a dangerous position. However, if you are concerned, take a look at the article tagged below by Kyle Trimble, PT, DPT.
Given Allen’s overall upside and his ability to handle a progressive increase in volume (320 attempts in 12 games, 461 attempts in 16 games, and then 572 attempts in 16 games last year), I will not be fading him despite the injury risk. It is simply something to monitor. He has legit top-three upside.
Fantasy Implications: Buy
Injury Concern for 2021: Moderate
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: Moderate
Note: My good friends and fellow colleagues both wrote about mobile quarterbacks and if you should be concerned about injuries. Please give their articles a read, and give them a follow (Kyle’s is specifically on Josh Allen).
- Adam Hutchison, PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) – Konami Code Red
- Kyle Trimble, PT, DPT (@kyletrimble88) – Run, Josh, Run
Zack Moss, RB
- 10/1/16: Toe injury; missed two games
- 2017: Right shoulder sprain; missed six weeks of spring practices
- 2018: Left ankle sprain; played the following week however was very inefficient/limited for two games
- 2018: Right ankle sprain; returned to game, missed zero games
- 2018: Knee sprain; required surgery, likely meniscus; missed five games
- 9/20/19: AC joint separation; missed one game
- 2020: Undisclosed; opted out of Senior Bowl, rumored due to lingering AC joint issues
- 2/28/20: Hamstring strain; suffered during vertical jump test
- 8/27/20: Neck sprain; suffered in practice, no complications or missed games
- 9/20/20: Turf Toe injury; missed three games
- 1/9/21: Left high ankle sprain
- 1/19/21: Tightrope Surgery; performed to address instability from high ankle sprain
Moss is an intriguing prospect. He carries quite the injury history for a bruising running back. Moss could be a decent running back if he stays healthy, however he too often seeks contact, leading to various injuries including his ankle sprains, AC joint sprains, and toe sprains. He entered this off-season having to require a Tightrope surgery in order to stabilize his ankle following the high ankle sprain. Head coach Sean McDermott has stated that Moss will be limited in sessions for the time being until he is ready to go.
I do not believe Moss can handle a full workload, at least the workload that many fantasy managers are hoping for. He carries high injury risk moving forward and I recommend selling.
Fantasy Implications: Sell
Injury Concern for 2021: High
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: High
Devin Singletary, RB
- 9/15/19: Left hamstring strain; missed three games
- 12/7/20: Knee sprain; returned to game
Singletary carries significantly less injury concern moving forward than Moss does. He has reportedly worked tirelessly this off-season on speed, lateral agility, and strength. Singletary currently holds the advantage over Moss by being available for the start of camp at full capacity. However, this is one backfield that will be very interesting to keep an eye on.
The Bills really like Moss, but he needs to remain available to be “the guy”. For now, I recommend acquiring shares of Singletary, though only for cheap given this backfield will remain a committee.
Fantasy Implications: Buy (for cheap)
Injury Concern for 2021: Low
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: Low
Stefon Diggs, WR
- 8/30/15: Hamstring strain; missed first three games of season
- 10/3/16: Groin strain; missed one game initially, costed him two more games during season
- 10/9/17: Groin strain; missed two games
- 10/28/18: Rib sprain; missed one game
- 9/4/19: Hamstring strain; missed zero games
- 12/19/20: Foot sprain; missed zero games
- 1/5/21: Oblique strain; missed zero games
Diggs has been very reliable over the last few seasons, escaping the dreaded groin strains he suffered in 2016 and 2017 without future recurrence. It is worth monitoring for future hamstring and foot/ankle injuries; however, I am not concerned about his past injury history due to isolated incidents and overall very few games missed due to injury. Draft with confidence.
Fantasy Implications: Buy
Injury Concern for 2021: Low
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: Low
Gabriel Davis, WR
- 1/16/21: Left ankle sprain; missed zero playoff games
Davis was remarkably durable in college and in his first season in the NFL. I have no injury concerns about him, although I do have some usage concerns. Everything I have read indicates that Emmanuel Sanders will take the John Brown role, so if Cole Beasley remains on the team operating out of the slot, Davis may remain a rotational wide receiver for 2021. He has some very intriguing upside though.
Fantasy Implications: Buy
Injury Concern for 2021: Low
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: Low
Emmanuel Sanders, WR
- 2/6/11: Left foot fracture
- 4/4/11: Left foot stress fracture, surgery to repair
- 11/17/13: Right ankle sprain
- 10/18/15: Left AC joint sprain
- 11/8/15: Left high ankle sprain; missed two games
- 1/1/17: Left high ankle sprain
- 10/15/17: Right ankle sprain; missed two games
- 12/5/18: Achilles tear; surgical repair, ready for week one of 2019 season
- 11/11/19: Rib sprain
Sanders carries a high injury risk moving forward, but it was a good sign for his health that he was able to play in 30 of the possible 32 games (excluding postseason) over the last two seasons. He has shown sprinkles of life for fantasy production, but at this stage of his career in his first season with the Bills at age 33, I would expect him to be a better BestBall target than a redraft or dynasty target. If anything were to happen to Sanders, I would expect Davis’s role to increase.
Fantasy Implications: Stash and monitor (don’t like or dislike his value, but understand he could produce)
Injury Concern for 2021: High
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: High
Dawson Knox, TE
- 8/21/17: Left foot stress fracture and Left meniscus tear; surgery in December 2017
- 7/28/19: Hamstring strain; missed time in preseason but ready for week one
- 9/20/20: Concussion; missed one game
- 10/13/20: Calf strain; missed three games, limited in the fourth game
Knox is an interesting player to discuss because I would not fade him due to injury but I would consider fading him due to other variables. These variables include lack of consistent usage within the offense and the Bills’ seemingly lack of trust in Knox as they seek a veteran tight end (tied to Zach Ertz rumors, brought in Jacob Hollister as a free agent). With the other mouths to feed, I do not expect Knox to be fantasy-relevant. Despite this, do not fade him due to injury.
Fantasy Implications: Monitor/Fade
Injury Concern for 2021: Low
Injury Volatility for Dynasty: Low (contract, overall usage volatility within Bills offense)
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week 16 - December 21, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Ten - November 9, 2024
- Dynasty Injury Forecast: Week Seven - October 19, 2024
