2021 Summer Sleeper: Baltimore Ravens
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end-of-the-roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top 175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next James Robinson is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The 2020 Baltimore Ravens won 11 games and made the NFL playoffs for the third consecutive year. Five of their players are in the top 150 of DLF Superflex/2QB ADP, and all are 24 years old or younger. Yet an air of criticism hovers over this group from a dynasty perspective.
It may be because of Lamar Jackson’s “down” season compared to his NFL MVP campaign. It also seems his passing ability will always be questioned. Perhaps it is due to the team’s run-heavy philosophy despite its real-world effectiveness. Regardless, the Ravens continue to invest in young offensive skill talent, and their fourth-round selection this year is the subject of this Summer Sleeper piece.
Tylan Wallace, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
First-round pick Rashod Bateman gets the attention, and rightfully so, as his prospect profile is elite across multiple metrics. But Wallace is a quality prospect in his own right.
He managed to compile a strong resume, culminating in fourth-round NFL draft capital, despite tearing his ACL in 2019 and never resuming his pre-injury level of production. His college dominator and breakout age (19.3 years) metrics are in the top 20 percent of historical wide receiver prospects, while his 95th percentile college target share is elite.
Via DLF’s College Market Share App.
The problem for dynasty managers is not Wallace as a prospect. The problem lies with his landing spot.
As it functions today, the Ravens offense does not support multiple receiving options. The Ravens scored the seventh-most points in the league in 2020 despite running the eighth fewest plays (8.0 per game fewer than the league-leading Chargers) and attempting just 25.4 passes per game, fewest in the NFL.
They also finished dead last in passing yards. They run the ball and lean on a defense that allowed the third-fewest points in the league. This approach leads to games with low possessions and low volume. Baltimore’s average time of possession per drive was sixth-longest in the league.
Upside is limited for this receiving group under these conditions. Marquise Brown only managed to convert his team-leading 100 targets to a WR33 finish. The WR2 in terms of targets (Willie Snead) earned just 48 of them.
It is possible Lamar Jackson takes a developmental step and this offense opens up. Or game script may not be so favorable in 2021 and the team is forced to become more aggressive. Maybe the Ravens feed targets to the two first-round receivers they have selected the last three years.
Unfortunately, those scenarios do not help Wallace as the fourth or fifth receiving option. If the Ravens were to rank middle of the pack in pass attempts (San Francisco were 16th last year with 570), that would result in 164 more targets over the course of the season. While that’s a significant 40% increase over 2020, a 40% increase for the team’s number five target recipient would have resulted in just 36 targets, nowhere near enough to be relevant in fantasy.
We previously noted that five Ravens 24 years old or younger are in the DLF ADP top 150. Draft capital only carries a player for so long, and age without production eventually erodes dynasty value. The dynasty clock may be ticking for Brown, but that still puts Wallace behind TE1 Mark Andrews, Bateman and perhaps even JK Dobbins. It is hard to find a path to relevance or upside absent one or more injuries to this receiving group.
Wallace eventually found himself as a late third-round pick in superflex rookie drafts, so it is not as if managers had to heavily invest to secure him. Similarly, his value of 248 overall in Superflex Startup ADP puts him on the fringe of startup drafts as WR91 and even behind new teammate Sammy Watkins, whom we have not even mentioned as a depth chart competitor.
That brings us full circle to the point of this piece as we label Wallace as a deep sleeper. Truthers can acquire and stash him for minimal cost as they chase their dream. The better approach, however, may be to set an alarm in the back of your mind in the event he clears a path to fantasy relevance.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
