2021 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears

Frank Gruber

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end-of-the-roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top 175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next James Robinson is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

The 2020 Chicago Bears finished second in the NFC North with an 8-8 record and made the playoffs for the second time in three years. The defense finished near the top of the league in most major categories while the offense finished near the bottom. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson managed top-12 positional finishes but the rest of the Bears’ offense lacked reliable fantasy options.

They saw quarterback Justin Fields fall to them at the 11th overall pick of the draft, and there is new optimism around this offense. In this piece, we cover a forgotten part of the backfield who, before the arrival of Montgomery, produced an RB2 season on just 99 carries. Can he do it again with Montgomery in the mix and while coming off an ACL injury?

Tarik Cohen, RB

Category: Sleeper

In 2018, the 5’6”, 191-pound, 23-year-old Cohen shared a backfield with Jordan Howard, who was coming off consecutive RB1 fantasy seasons. Howard went on to out-carry Cohen 250 to 99 en route to an RB20 fantasy finish. But Cohen added 65 more targets than Howard (91 total), resulting in 71 receptions for 725 yards and contributing to an RB17 season.

The following year, the Bears replaced Howard with third-round selection Montgomery, who used a similar workload split to produce a similar finish as Howard, as RB22. Cohen, however, did less with more. He earned 104 targets but only turned them into 456 yards.

Last year he tore his right ACL in week three. On a bad offense, Montgomery took advantage by soaking up some of Cohen’s targets. He more than doubled his receiving production to the tune of 54-438-2 while his carries held steady.

That is the big question for this backfield in 2021: will Cohen return healthy, and will he take back these targets?

It is possible both could prosper. The 2020 Bears were among the league’s worst in points scored, total yards, and pass yards, the last despite attempting the 14th most passes in the league, suggesting improvements may need to come from efficiency rather than volume. That’s where Fields could be an upgrade from the Mitchell Trubisky and Chase Daniel super duo from 2020.

But it is also possible Montgomery has established himself as the team’s clear RB1. Still just 24 years old, he has draft capital and an RB1 season on his resume. Cohen comes with risk, but that risk is inexpensive. The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer values him in line with a fourth-round rookie pick in superflex/2QB leagues. And as shown in the picture, his ADP has steadily fallen since its 2018 peak – even well before his injury.

screenshot 2021 07 26 at 15.53.32

Though he is signed through 2023, the Bears have a potential out of his contract after this year that would save the team roughly $13 million. Recall he signed a three-year, $17.25 million contract before the 2021 season. It is easy to see a scenario in which the Bears exercise that option after this year and Cohen finds himself a 27-year-old, 5’6” free agent a year removed from an ACL tear.

Fantasy managers should therefore view him as a low-cost, low-to-moderate probability, one-year depth play. Rebuilding or non-contending dynasty squads should not bother trying to buy and flip, as his trade value is unlikely to appreciate to more than a third-round rookie pick absent an injury to Montgomery. Contending teams, however, should consider paying a fourth-round equivalent for a depth piece, then hope for an eight-catch game if he must be started in a pinch.

In terms of players, Mecole Hardman, Nelson Agholor, Chuba Hubbard, and Sony Michel are closest to Cohen’s superflex/2QB ADP of 188 overall, so could get a trade done. His 1QB league ADP of 174 overall is similar, and puts him in the neighborhood of running backs Latavius Murray, Jeff Wilson Jr, and Darrynton Evans.

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2021 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears