Dynasty Danger: Brandin Cooks
One of the most important parts of succeeding in dynasty leagues is getting out from under dying assets before the bottom falls out. Even though some of these players have already declined in value, I believe they will suffer a further decline shortly. It can be challenging to sell veterans at this time of year, but I want to put these players on your radar at least. Dynasty managers may want to consider moving on sooner rather than later.
When breaking down a dynasty danger player, I split my analysis into three sections: career statistics, future situation, and ADP and trade value. If you want to read my previous articles in this series, I’ve included them at the bottom of this piece.
Let’s jump into it!
Background
In this case, I want to get two topics out of the way up top before moving into the details. First, Brandin Cooks is an excellent NFL receiver, and he has been for many years. When I wrote about Mike Evans, I emphasized that fantasy football is a game. Even more so, dynasty leagues add an element of market value, and I’m purely out on Cooks as a future asset. Don’t take this article as saying that I believe Cooks isn’t talented because that’s not what I think.
Second, I’m going to assume for this article that Deshaun Watson will never play for the Texans again. I don’t want to get into that topic too much further, but I believe the Texans will trade him and move on after his legal situation becomes resolved. That transaction will likely occur next off-season. I think the Texans burned their bridge with Watson before the sexual assault accusations, and now they also want him off their team. Some team will take a chance on Watson, but it won’t be Houston. With those two issues covered, let’s move on to Cooks’ career thus far.
Career Statistics
As I mentioned above, Cooks has a solid track record in his seven previous seasons.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The Saints drafted Cooks in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft with the 20th overall pick. Of course, any first-round receiver should gain an immediate role in the offense. However, the Saints were a loaded offense at the time, boasting star tight end Jimmy Graham and two top receivers in Marques Colston and Kenny Stills. Cooks played more of a depth role as a rookie, staying off the fantasy radar. But he showed enough for the Saints to trade Stills to the Dolphins and Graham to the Seahawks, leaving him the clear top receiving weapon for the 2015 season.
That year, Cooks dominated for the Saints, leading the team in all receiving categories. He had his first of four straight 1,000-yard seasons, and he looked like a rising star for the Saints and fantasy managers. While both Colston and Willie Snead remained involved, there was no question that Cooks was the alpha receiver in New Orleans.
Unfortunately, Cooks’ career path took a dramatic turn in 2016, as the Saints selected Michael Thomas in the second round of that year’s NFL Draft. Thomas immediately pushed Cooks to more of a field-stretcher role, and he became the Saints’ top receiver as a rookie. Thomas led Cooks in targets, receptions, and touchdowns, although Cooks pipped him in receiving yards. Snead also had a strong season, with 72 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdowns.
Due to Thomas’ emergence and Snead’s strong, consistent play, the Saints felt comfortable trading Cooks to the Patriots, and they received a first-round pick in exchange. Cooks was fine in his one season in New England, although he certainly didn’t light the world on fire. The Patriots didn’t want to extend Cooks after the 2017 season, so they then traded him to the Rams, who signed him to a five-year, $81 million contract.
On the Rams, Cooks formed a dynamic receiver trio with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. In 2018, Cooks continued his success, setting a career-high in receiving yards. After 2018, he was considered one of the most stable assets in fantasy football.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
As you can see, Cooks finished between WR10 and WR15 every season from 2015-2018. He also played 16 games each year, providing consistent availability for his fantasy managers. At this point, Cooks’ concussions were not yet a significant concern. He suffered one in 2015 that didn’t force him to miss any time, and he also was forced out of Super Bowl LII with the Patriots. He also had a third one in 2018 with the Rams, but once again, he didn’t miss any additional time.
Since he had played all the regular-season games every year, dynasty managers rarely brought up Cooks’ concussions.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
Throughout the 2019 off-season, Cooks’ 1QB DLF ADP stayed between 26 and 30, a remarkably tight range for any player. He was still 25 years old at the time, and he wouldn’t turn 26 until September 2019. While Cooks wasn’t ever a top-five fantasy receiver, he was a perfect, safe WR2 for dynasty rosters.
Unfortunately, the wheels ultimately came off after 2018. 2019 was a disaster for Cooks, as he suffered two further concussions while having the worst year of his career. He finished as the WR61, despite playing 14 games, with a terrible stat line of 42 receptions, 583 yards, and two touchdowns.
The Rams also began to phase Cooks out of their offense, as they incorporated Tyler Higbee into a new 12 personnel system down the stretch.
Chart courtesy of DLF Snap Count App.
Therefore, the Rams decided to move on from Cooks after 2019, trading him and a fourth-rounder to the Texans for a second-round pick. The Texans seemed like an exciting landing spot for Cooks as he would play with a star quarterback in Watson. While the Texans had some question marks, Cooks had a shot to be the team’s top receiver, alongside Will Fuller.
However, Fuller was the Texans’ top weapon before the NFL suspended him for PED use. But without Fuller, Cooks shined.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
He had one of the best stretches of his career without Fuller, as he became the only reliable receiver on the Texans. Cooks and Watson displayed excellent chemistry, and Cooks’ 2020 totals look similar to his performance from 2015-2018. If the 2021 Texans looked anything like the 2020 Texans, I would likely be all in on Cooks as a veteran value in dynasty formats, even with his concussion history.
Future Situation
However, the 2021 Texans will have little to nothing in common with the 2020 version. Yes, they allowed Fuller to sign with the Dolphins in free agency, and they only replaced him with rookie Nico Collins. So once again, Cooks is the clear top receiving weapon.
Unfortunately, the Texans’ quarterback options include veteran Tyrod Taylor and third-round rookie Davis Mills. Taylor hasn’t started an entire season since 2017, and he’s looked abysmal in his short stints in Cleveland in 2018 and Los Angeles in 2020. Even during his time in Buffalo, Taylor averaged around 3,000 passing yards per season and failed to support fantasy wide receivers. Sammy Watkins in 2015 was the only relevant wide receiver during Taylor’s three seasons, finishing as the WR20 that year.
On the other hand, Mills is entirely unproven as a raw prospect. While he might provide somewhat more of a passing ceiling than Taylor, he will not run a successful offense. As a result, no matter who starts, I expect the Texans to be the worst offense in the league.
Additionally, Cooks is likely one concussion away from the end of his career. He saw concussion specialists in 2019 after his fifth concussion, and he could suffer yet another concussion at any time. The Texans can easily escape Cooks’ contract after this season, saving almost $9 million in cap room. Considering that Cooks turns 28 in September and 29 in 2022, I believe he has little to no value upside anymore. However, he could fall to little to no value with another poor season or an additional concussion.
ADP and Trade Value
Now, if Cooks were a cheaper dynasty asset, I would consider him as an option. But he falls in a range with other, younger receivers who should carry far more value.
Chart courtesy of DLF July 1QB ADP.
Of those receivers, I prefer all but Robby Anderson over Cooks. The idea that Cooks has similar value to Rondale Moore seems laughable to me, as I rank Moore multiple rounds higher than Cooks. I also cannot see why dynasty managers would pass on high-upside options like Michael Pittman, Terrace Marshall, or even Henry Ruggs or Jalen Reagor for Cooks. I can’t imagine that Cooks remains in this group in a year, and I expect to see him multiple rounds lower.
Let’s look at a couple of recent trades for Cooks using the DLF Trade Finder.
I easily prefer the other side in both of these deals, as Cooks is worth far less than the 1.09 rookie pick, nor are Cooks and Kenny Golladay enough for JK Dobbins.
Overall, I’m simply avoiding Cooks in startups and trades, as I believe he’s about to lose his status as a valued dynasty asset. For 2021, I rank Cooks as WR37 due to his utter lack of ceiling, which is likely a low-end WR2. Maybe I’d invest in him after the bottom plummets out after a poor 2021 performance, but not right now. I’ll let someone else deal with Cooks this year.
Previous Entries: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Dalvin Cook, Carson Wentz, DeVante Parker, Mike Evans
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
