2021 Summer Sleeper: New England Patriots
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end-of-the-roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top 175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next James Robinson is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The New England Patriots are a strong contender for my least favorite team to discuss in the entire NFL when it comes to their fantasy prospects. Outside of the Houston Texans, there’s no team I want to avoid more than the Patriots. This off-season, they re-signed Cam Newton to a one-year, $5.1 million contract as their starting quarterback. Additionally, they drafted Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick to become their long-term starter. I have little faith that Newton has anything left in the tank, while Jones represents a massive question mark, especially compared to the other quarterbacks in this class.
Beyond quarterback, the Patriots made numerous other questionable decisions in this off-season. They wasted a boatload of money on Nelson Agholor to be their nominal WR1, and they made a similar, although smaller, mistake with Kendrick Bourne. I also like Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry as players, but I wouldn’t have paid either tight end $12.5 million per year. Agholor, Smith, and Henry will likely serve as the Patriots’ top three receiving weapons in 2021, although none are deep enough to qualify as sleepers.
I considered writing about third-year receiver Jakobi Meyers for this article, as he possesses some sleeper appeal given his year two performance. However, his ADP recently climbed to WR76 and 175th overall. I don’t find him to be a massive value at that price, especially since I think he will at best be their fourth receiving option. I do believe Meyers has a good shot at beating out Bourne at WR2, although I don’t want a deeper receiving option in this offense.
Now, I like Meyers’ current teammate N’Keal Harry as a dynasty sleeper. Harry’s agent demanded a trade on behalf of his client, and I doubt he opens the 2021 season on the Patriots. But let’s not forget that Harry was a contender for the 1.01 rookie pick in 2019 rookie drafts. At WR95 and 225th overall, I’m perfectly happy taking a shot on Harry in dynasty startups. Unfortunately, I didn’t want to choose him if he won’t be on this team in 2021.
After leaving the receiving game, all that remains is the messy Patriots’ running back room. Third-year back Damien Harris is the clear starter, and James White re-signed to a $2.5 million contract to be the pass-catcher. The Patriots also drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round, and of course, they still have a holdover in Sony Michel.
However, I believe that Michel will find himself on a different roster by week one. The Patriots declined his fifth-year option, and they can save a bit of money by releasing or trading him. Harris, Stevenson, and White seem like a balanced running back corps, leaving Michel surplus to requirements. But also, the Patriots have a super deep sleeper on the team, which could allow them to move on from Michel more easily.
JJ Taylor, RB
Category: Super Deep Sleeper
Taylor had an interesting four-year college career at Arizona.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Despite his small stature at 5-foot 6-inches and 185 pounds, he managed to hold a significant carry share in college. He began as a backup in 2016 before leading the running backs in carries in 2017. He wasn’t particularly efficient for an NFL prospect, but 5.8 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns aren’t horrible.
2018 was Taylor’s best college season. He held off 2021 sixth-round pick Gary Brightwell, outcarrying him 255 to 91. It almost seems like Taylor should have declared for the 2019 NFL Draft, which was a weaker running back class. However, based on his 2018 performance, he may have been a late-round selection that year.
Unfortunately, Taylor returned for the 2019 season, where he declined in both efficiency and touch volume on the ground. The Arizona offense ran the ball far less often than in 2018, although that may have been because neither Taylor nor Brightwell offered anything inspiring. Luckily, Taylor did display pass-catching skills, catching 32 balls for 289 yards.
He declared for the NFL Draft after 2019, where he profiled as a pass-catching back based on his final season and his size. Unfortunately, the 2020 running back class was one of the deepest and best groups in recent memory, and Taylor went undrafted. The Patriots eventually signed him as an undrafted free agent. He failed to make the final 53-man roster, landing on the practice squad. However, after injuries to other running backs, Taylor made it onto the active roster, where he remained for the entire 2020 season.
Now, Taylor didn’t do much for the Patriots in 2020.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He saw 23 carries for 110 yards and caught one of his two targets for four yards. Most of his playing time came in two games, both of which came when the Patriots had multiple injuries in their backfield. However, any playing time for a UDFA is impressive, so he already beat the odds for players with his pedigree.
Of course, Taylor represents the deepest of sleepers. Right now, he’s the clear RB5 on the Patriots’ depth chart behind Harris, Stevenson, Michel, and White. He only stayed on the active roster last season because every other Patriots’ running back suffered an injury, and White missed some games for personal reasons. So unless someone disappears from the active roster between now and week one, Taylor likely won’t make the team.
However, I believe Michel will find himself out of town by that point. He is a capable, boring plodder, and another team may be interested in him as a backup. If Taylor gets a shot, he could challenge White for the pass-catching role long-term. Alternatively, he could become a Rex Burkhead-type player, contributing in both the receiving and running game in a change-of-pace role. Either way, Taylor is a long-shot, but I would be fine using a bench spot on him in the deepest formats.
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