Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

Cam Akers and the Historical Trend of Running Back Achilles Injuries

What does the past tell us about running backs who have suffered Achilles injuries?

Cam Akers

What does the past tell us about running backs who have suffered Achilles injuries?

GET IN THE GAME!

Gain Instant Access to this article and so much more.

A full year of access is only $49.99.

Try DLF Premium for only $7.99 with a Monthly Subscription.

Premium membership provides access to all of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year. You also gain access to the best dynasty fantasy football resources in the industry. Including...

• The best dynasty rankings in the industry
• Dynasty, Rookie & Superflex ADP
• Dynasty Trade Analyzer and other tools
• Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides
• 365 days of content, tools, advice and support
• And so much more!

Join DLF Today!

Want more info about DLF Premium?
Find out more

Have questions or need some help?
Contact Us

Already a DLF Premium Member?
Log in now!

Cam Akers and the Historical Trend of Running Back Achilles Injuries
24 Comments
5 7 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

Absolutely devastating. I have read Akers is a great teammate and is an overall great person. I hope to see him come back strong and fulfill his potential on and off the field.

Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

One quick question – did you notice a difference in Kevin Durant’s game since his Achilles injury?

Dalton Prather
Reply to  Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

Does KD play running back?

Aaron Taylor
Reply to  Dalton Prather
1 month ago

Does Durant run, sprint, burst, jump and play professional sports? If so, try and keep comments positive instead of negative.

Dalton Prather
Reply to  Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

Why? It’s wishful thinking that Akers can be the ONLY guy to overcome this at his position where being able to burst, cut and plant at varying levels of speed is critical especially while also trying to beat out incredible athletes on the other side of the ball tackling him. Achilles injuries don’t just impact burst and speed it significantly and irreversibly changes gait and how the foot is planted.

My guess is you’re a Akers truther in the denial stage, sorry for your loss.

Jay Lee
Reply to  Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

It took KD 18 months to return… if that’s the timeline for Akers, then he is going to miss the next 2 seasons, making him 24 years old and returning for the 2023 season off the worst injury in sports. Buy into that if you want.

Tubster
1 month ago

Jeff – fantastic article. I have a trade offer in place to send Akers away for the 18th overall pick (2nd rounder this year – 2021) PLUS Mike Davis. This is a 10 team Dynasty IDP league, thus buffering the value of the pick. I have a contending team. Just trying to come to terms with the offer. Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

Admin
1 month ago

This is going to be a fascinating one to watch over the next three years. Akers will be the highest profile running back to suffer this injury at his age with attached upside. I wasn’t a fan of Leshoure in DET but Marlon Mack profiled well. Problem with Mack is he has suffered other injuries. Tough all around but it will make for a fascinating study to see if he can return and, if so, to what degree. By all accounts the injury I always thought was the worst was a patellar tear as few seem to come back from that but thankfully it’s relatively rare. Great info!

Leo Guidroz
1 month ago

I was chatting with the Akers owner in our 14-team SF/IDP. He says, at the moment, he won’t send him for anything less than a future 1st. He will park him on Injured Reserve and use him in the 2022 rookie draft to gain value, or return him to the roster if optimism of his recovery shows. He: “If the Rams do not draft a early round RB in ’22, that is the first sign Akers will be back and valuable.” He is cautious of the long-term value and will most likely move him for a top 20 pick, unless the news of RTP is glowing. If I owned him, I think that might my strategy as well.

Reply to  Leo Guidroz
1 month ago

I have both Akers and Henderson (drafted both) and will employ the same strategy: Akers to IR this year and wait and see what the Rams do in the draft as an indicator but I disagree about moving him for a top 20 pick, a first round pick maybe or possibly a high second but the return on value may not be there for what Akers could still be: a workhorse 3 down back.

Wendell Bera
1 month ago

Just trying to understand your mindset in regards to trading him. If you think two 2nd rnd picks at a minimum aren’t good enough to trade him for, then why do you think only offering one 2nd is a perfectly acceptable offer? Unless you operate under the philosophy that there’s a sucker born every minute, it doesn’t make sense to me.

Stephen Lee
Reply to  Jeff Mueller
1 month ago

So net-net Wendell- he is saying: “there’s a sucker born every minute”- they just don’t subscribe to DLF…

mikede88
1 month ago

Put a fork in him.

Vespa
1 month ago

Got offered Hunt for him and I took it.

Littlewing745
1 month ago

Thanks for this article. I don’t have any shares of Akers, but I’m very curious how people are approaching his valuation right now. I have a question about this:
I would not sell your shares for only a future second-round pick or a pair of second-round picks (though I admit, it is tempting to consider it for an early to mid-second rounder). The odds of those picks hitting are not high enough, and you might as well bet on holding Akers and betting on his return to form (or hold for now in order to sell later on when hype/value increases again).”
This is truly a question, as I don’t have the math in front of me…but *is* it actually a better bet that Akers will return some marginal value than taking two shots in the second? I’m well aware the hit rate there is awful, but based on this article…it’s hard to see how the above is higher. Just curious what the math says.

Joe Rossi
1 month ago

Jeff–good article but I do want to point out a couple of things from the study you cite.
1) By their own admission, “Many positions were limited by small sizes prohibiting a robust analysis.” The only thing we can say about RBs specifically is that 3 of 7 returned to play. As you point out, we don’t know who the 3 RBs (of 7) who did return to play (RTP).
2) The authors do not provide detailed analysis of RBs compared to the group. So when the author state “After the RTP season, there were no significant differences in the number of games played before and after injury,” it is entirely possible that zero RBs played as many games post-injury as pre-injury. In fact, it is possible that all three RTP RBs may have already been out of the league at the 18mo follow-up and the study’s numbers would not reflect that.
3) Nor do we know anything about playing time after 18 mo.
4) About that “return to play” for all positions? By definition by the study’s authors,”RTP was defined as playing at least 1 play in an [regular season] or postseason game after the injury.” Thus, we know nothing about how much the players played. And that “one play” could be limited to special teams.
5) We do know the average RTP was almost 12 full months but that return to pre-injury number of games played (for all positions) was the season after that. Admittedly, the authors did not specify when in the injuries occurred in relation to the seasonal calendar (pre-season, off-season, late in-season for example).
6) Though the study suggests earlier draft status did improve RTP rates, it could not differentiate that rate for RBs specifically.
7) Finally none of this says anything about quality of play. While we can assume those with poor quality of play are more likely to be cut (as the study suggests). We can just as likely assume that teams are inclined to “hang onto” early draft choices because of sunken cost. PLUS, the study noted a 1 in 7 chance of a second Achilles tear!
IN SUMMARY: First off thank you for providing science, even if it is limited to our specific concerns regarding Akers. However, we are left only with anecdotal comparisons which you provide. The study suggests, however, that there is a 42% chance of Akers returning to play, that he’ll likely need 12 months to return to play, and that it’ll be the 2023 season before he’ll be able to contribute in a number of games (not plays) we might have expected had he not gotten hurt. And no one can know anything about the quality of his play. There is no guarantee he will play significant snaps, nor contribute at all to our fantasy teams scoring. The Rams will undoubtedly move on with his replacement.
Give me the value of a 2nd round pick now (especially if I can get a player).
Great work.
[btw, that study had all kinds of editorial errors]

Aaron Taylor
1 month ago

Hey Jeff. I know this post is old but I received an offer on Akers this morning – August 7. I was offered OBJ and Chark for Akers and Hurts (one QB league) from a rebuilding team who is deep at WR but has no talent in other positions. This is an easy accept – correct?

To Top