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Common Themes in Dynasty Player Evaluation

What are some important things to take into account when it comes to dynasty value and considering each player on your roster?

Mike Gesicki

What are some important things to take into account when it comes to dynasty value and considering each player on your roster?

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Common Themes in Dynasty Player Evaluation
23 Comments
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Ger O'Callaghan
20 days ago

Solid analysis and explanation as per usual Mr. Karp.

yellowdart24
19 days ago

Highlighting your argument about Wentz and how you closed the article, I would argue that if Wentz does “bounce back” that his value will certainly rise to close to where it was. He’d be just 29 years old and solid performance this year would re-establish faith that he is a high end QB2 in superflex leagues.

Andy Cook
Reply to  yellowdart24
19 days ago

True, but his value was a top-five dynasty quarterback prior to going off the rails. I would agree, he will not make it back to top-five status. But I do think he could be your top 10 or 15 quarterback if he has a good season or two.

Richard Thomas
19 days ago

Good article.

19 days ago

I agree with your points and would welcome comments to put these principles into practice with my dynasty draft this year. I have the first 2 picks (also #6 and #11) and I am struggling to determine which 2 players to draft. I have narrowed it down to J. Chase, N. Harris and K. Pitts. I am currently leaning towards Chase (my favorite) and Harris (for opportunity) but I really like Pitts esp since J. Jones was traded. Anyone have any suggestions?

Gabe Pattison
19 days ago

Have to disagree on Gesicki. He has improved every year. And his QBs were 2018 Tannehill/Osweiller under Gase, Fitz and Rosen, Fitz and Tua. The Phins WR corps were abysmal last year and they needed to make improvements looking towards the future with Waddle and Fuller. Gesicki has room to grow further and nothing he’s done so far has suggested that he won’t.

Andy Cook
Reply to  Gabe Pattison
19 days ago

If I was a betting man I would bet on him not dramatically increasing his production. I agree with the article, he has probably reached his peak value and peak production. I do think the wide receivers will take targets away so even if Gesicki improves, he may not improve much and justify any substantial leap.

Reply to  Andy Cook
19 days ago

I agree. Also, Gesicki never passed the “eye test” for me; he seems average at best in the NFL. He was really good as Penn St. but I have yet to see that type of dominant play in the NFL. I am hopeful the Freiermuth does not follow a similar path (I am a Steelers fan). Great players rise above bad circumstances, good players sometimes do not.

Paul Youk
19 days ago

I’ve never been high on Gesicki, but it is reaching a point where he is cheap enough that I’m fine to take him as one of my TEs if I miss the top 8 and he falls to double digit rounds. If all he ever does is low-end TE1 level production for a few years, I’m okay with that given the price. Pair him with a younger late flier or two. Not exciting, but not someone I’m trying to avoid either.

Paul Youk
19 days ago

To put it another way, trying to take upside with every pick is over-rated to me. I want a mix of upside and floor players, with a roster configured in a way that allows me to increase variance when I’m likely to lose and minimize risk when I’m likely to win. Boring and perceived mediocre players like Gesicki, Cooks, Landry are fine to me if the prices are modest–I just don’t want to pack my entire second half of my roster with them.
Still good stuff though article wise!

Stephen Lee
19 days ago

I struggle with the usefulness of valuing Henry and Kelce as players who “have league winning upside”, but can decrease in “value” (ADP?) after a poor season. This is what I term “the stock market fallacy”-which holds that fantasy players have some realizable inherent value (like stocks) beyond their ability to win you fantasy titles and/or $. You cite Antonio Gibson and Kyle Pitts whose “value” can increase after one good season, but what will you do to realize that value?…. Maybe trade them for Kelce and Henry late in the season in order to win a title?

Gregory Massa
19 days ago

Maybe I missed something, but Im confused in the “avoiding failure” section you said the teams of Mims, Tua, and Reagor tried to move on from them… Was there a trade/cut rumor or something that I missed?

Gregory Massa
Reply to  Tyler Justin Karp
19 days ago

Gotcha gotcha, I was thinking strictly trade, but that makes some sense as well. Thanks for the reminder!

steven manies
19 days ago

Tyler I appreciate your article. My championship caliber teams always have a good mix of solid veteran and young player talent. You can devalue veteran players approaching the age cliff as much as you want, but it depends what you have to give in trade value to acquire them. I, against your advice, traded for Henry this off season and it was a no brainer! His owner so devalued him because of his age that I was able to pick up the league rushing leader for cheap. I understand that Henry’s years of elite production may be limited, but I’m in a win now mode. If I was in a team rebuild, I’d have done the same thing and traded Henry for younger assets.

Alejandro Ramirez
18 days ago

I agree with so much of this! When I see people drafting finished products with little upside I cringe lol. It’s not that they’re not useful but unless you win immediately (which is hard to even know right after a startup) it limits flexibility. Dynasty is all about flexibility to me and those are the type of replaceable players that trigger long rebuilds. Great article!

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