Fast Forward to 2023: The Future Dynasty QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1
I’ve done some articles looking a year ahead, predicting players who will increase in value by 2022. However, I want to go a step further this time. I will predict the dynasty QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1 in the summer of 2023, two years from now.
Let’s jump into it!
2023 Dynasty QB1: Patrick Mahomes, KC
I didn’t seriously consider choosing any quarterback outside of Mahomes for the top spot. While of course he could fall from his perch, there simply wasn’t any one alternative who came anywhere near him. In July 2023, Mahomes will be just 27 years old, turning 28 in September of that year. That would place him squarely in his prime, with most of his career ahead of him. The Chiefs also signed him to a historic ten-year, $450 million extension, so he’s as locked-in as any player in the NFL.
Mahomes has only succeeded since he became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018.
Charts courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
He was the QB1 in his monster 2018 season and followed that up with QB8 and QB6 finishes in 2019 and 2020. Most notably, no quarterback offers Mahomes’ trademark consistency.
He’s finished as a top-12 quarterback in a ridiculous 71.11% of his starts and top-five in 42.22%. Incredibly, he’s only finished outside the top-24 in one game throughout his career. No other quarterback offers this type of consistency and safety combined with QB1 overall upside.
Other Contenders:
I considered a few other quarterbacks, but nobody seriously challenged Mahomes for this spot. There are eight young quarterbacks I could consider: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance. Of those players, I believe Lawrence is the most likely to challenge Mahomes, mainly because he carries the “generational prospect” label. If Lawrence lights the world on fire, dynasty managers will immediately buy into his success, as he’s universally beloved coming into the NFL.
Outside of Lawrence, Murray and Allen are the following two best options. Murray will turn 26 in the 2023 off-season, while Allen will be 27. However, Allen struggled with accuracy in his first two NFL seasons, while Murray hasn’t truly broken out as a volume passer. Those two players are excellent fantasy options, but I don’t think either will overtake Mahomes. I think Mahomes is essentially utterly secure as the dynasty QB1, at least for the next two years.
2023 Dynasty RB1: Jonathan Taylor, IND
Unlike quarterback, there were many legitimate contenders for the dynasty RB1 in 2023. No one player holds a commanding lead over the field like Mahomes did at quarterback. Part of that comes from the nature of the running back position, which includes high injury risk and massive turnover.
When considering potential players, I used an explicit age qualifier, eliminating all players who would turn 26 before the 2023 NFL season. I doubt that dynasty managers would accept a 26-year old RB1 overall anymore. Right now, Christian McCaffrey is 25, and I believe that’s the upper limit. Therefore, I removed four of the top five current dynasty running backs in McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara as options.
After that process, Taylor was the sole survivor of the current top five running backs in dynasty ADP, which instantly made him the favorite for this spot. He turned 22 years old in January 2021, so he will be 24 going into the 2023 season. Beyond Taylor’s age, he also brings impressive rookie year production to the table.
As you can see, he recorded 1,169 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He ranked third among running backs in rushing yards and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns. I also was impressed with his receiving effort, considering that was the main knock on him coming out of Wisconsin. Taylor also avoided fumbling the ball, which was his other main red flag as a prospect, totaling just one fumble on the season. Considering that Taylor finished as the RB6 as a rookie and answered the two main questions from his college profile, he’s the favorite to be the dynasty RB1 in 2023.
Other Contenders:
Given the age qualifier, most contenders for the RB1 overall in 2023 come from the 2020 running back class. All of the relevant running backs from 2019 or earlier will be too old, outside of Josh Jacobs, who isn’t a serious option for this title. Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and JK Dobbins will all be 24 when the 2023 season kicks off, while Antonio Gibson will be 25.
Of those players, Akers seems like the best bet to challenge Taylor, given his workhorse upside and the Rams’ potent offense. Swift possesses the requisite receiving ability, but he’s stuck on the Lions. Dobbins will form a committee with Gus Edwards for the next two seasons, and Gibson hasn’t proven himself as a workhorse back in his life just yet. Edwards-Helaire would be my third choice behind Taylor and Akers, mainly because he falls right between the two in age and plays in the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.
Unfortunately, the 2021 running back class does not provide any excellent contenders for the RB1 overall title. Najee Harris is a solid prospect, but he’s older than every player already mentioned outside of Jacobs. The 2020 running backs will have an additional season of fantasy production on him and an age advantage. I love Harris, but I struggle to see him as the top overall running back. Travis Etienne will split carries with James Robinson for the next two seasons, likely ruling him out from the RB1 overall race. I like Javonte Williams, as he’s the only player mentioned thus far who is currently 21 years old. However, I don’t see him at the same level as the top 2020 running backs, so he’s purely a dark-horse candidate.
I’m not a devy analyst, but I also doubt the 2023 RB1 comes from the 2022 or 2023 classes. 2022 doesn’t have a top running back prospect, with Breece Hall as the best option. I find it hard to believe that he becomes the RB1 overall at any point. And while the 2023 running back class is stacked, no running back has ever entered the league as the dynasty RB1.
2023 Dynasty WR1: CeeDee Lamb, DAL
At running back, I really only saw a few possible top contenders for the RB1 with some dark horse options. However, at wide receiver, the competition is wide open. Similar to running back, though, there’s an explicit age qualifier to be the WR1 in dynasty. This off-season, Davante Adams was the dynasty WR1 before the uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers, and he is 28 years old. I believe that 28 is the maximum possible age for the dynasty WR1, so I’ll only consider players who will be 28 years or younger by the 2023 NFL season. That filter eliminates current top receivers like Tyreek Hill, Adams, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Thomas.
Of the remaining options, I felt Lamb possessed the best chance to be the WR1 in 2023, even if he’s behind some other receivers that met my age requirement. Right now, Lamb is my dynasty WR5, behind Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Hill. However, given Lamb’s situation, he has the best path to WR1 overall, although those other players have more proven track records so far.
Lamb did have a strong rookie year, though.
He managed an impressive 74 receptions for 935 yards and five touchdowns, even though he only played with Dak Prescott for five games. Here are Lamb’s splits with and without Prescott.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
Lamb was a budding star, especially considering his five games with Prescott were his first five career NFL games. I genuinely believe that Lamb would currently be close to the dynasty WR1 if Prescott had played the whole 2021 season.
The primary reason why I would bet on Lamb over Jefferson, Brown, and Metcalf is Lamb’s quarterback situation. Lamb is the only one of those four players practically guaranteed to play with his current quarterback in 2023, and he currently has the best quarterback in Prescott. So that’s why I give him a slight edge, but it’s splitting hairs.
Other Contenders:
Of course, Jefferson, Brown, and Metcalf all have outstanding NFL production at young ages, especially Jefferson. Ja’Marr Chase is also a strong contender, given his fantastic draft capital and pairing with Joe Burrow. There are also many young receivers like Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle, to name a few. I think most of the range of outcomes comprises Lamb, Jefferson, Brown, Metcalf, and Chase, but any of the names listed have a chance. It’s the most wide-open competition.
2023 Dynasty TE1: Kyle Pitts, ATL
Pitts as the future dynasty TE1 was the easiest choice to make out of the four positions. He’s already the dynasty TE3, behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle and ahead of Darren Waller. Luckily for Pitts, those three players will struggle to maintain their spots atop the dynasty tight end rankings.
I love Kelce, but he’ll be 33 years old in the 2023 off-season. There’s no way he’ll be the TE1 at that point. Even Kittle will be 29, turning 30 in October 2023. While Kittle could be the dynasty TE1 in 2023, he’ll need to produce as Kelce has in 2021 and 2022 even to have a shot. Waller essentially has no chance to be ahead of Pitts in 2023, given that he’s behind Pitts now, and he’s a year older than Kittle. Therefore, Pitts has an entirely open path to the dynasty TE1 spot.
The Falcons chose Pitts with the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, making him the highest-drafted tight end of all time. He’s also only 20 years old, and he doesn’t even turn 21 until October. I won’t duplicate my previous breakdown on Pitts, and Pat Wright also wrote a piece advocating for Pitts as the rookie 1.01. Check those out for more of the case for Pitts. However, he occupies this spot primarily by default, as the alternatives are pretty unappealing.
Other Contenders:
Essentially, two primary contenders could challenge Pitts for the top spot: TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. Of those two, Hockenson is the more likely challenger, as he has an opportunity to be the Lions’ top receiving target in 2021. If Hockenson cements himself as a target monster in 2021 and then gets a quarterback upgrade from Jared Goff in 2022, he would be a severe threat to Pitts.
Fant represents more of a longshot. He profiles more as a secondary or tertiary option on the Broncos behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. I doubt Fant ever takes over as a true dominant option. But he has the first-round draft capital and athletic profile to contend for the top spot if he continues to develop.
Outside of Hockenson and Fant, everyone else is a complete dart throw. Mark Andrews seems like a strong option, but I can’t see the dynasty TE1 playing in Lamar Jackson’s low-volume passing offense. Honestly, the following most likely options are total unknowns like Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, and Pat Freiermuth. That’s because they are so unproven that they possess the broadest range of outcomes. But none of them are serious possibilities right now.
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