Twitter Observations: Davante Adams a Hold, Michael Carter a Sell

Davante Adams

Michael Moore Posted On July 7, 2021

The NFL Draft is done, most rookie dynasty drafts are over, and free agency has come and gone. NFL rosters are about as solid as they will be until it’s cut time. And despite a lot of Twitter-worthy events being the rearview mirror, it doesn’t mean there still isn’t a lot of drama happening. Below are a few of this week’s tweets that will have dynasty implications.

Adams for Peace

Davante Adams on getting an extension done with the #Packers

"That's the plan, man. I'm not planning on going anywhere." pic.twitter.com/tJD3W3HkMX

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) June 24, 2021

For an off-season that has seen so much drama and with the largest upheaval in team history staring them in the face, locking down possibly the best receiver in team history would be a Godsend for Green Bay. Davante Adams has certainly earned it after finishing last season as fantasy’s top receiver with 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and an incredible 18 touchdowns (which was the third-most all-time in a season).

He’s also criminally underpaid, having just the 18th-highest average annual salary for receivers. So an extension is absolutely due. The only question is will he be able to replicate those numbers with or without Aaron Rodgers.

Dynasty Impact: It’s always a good thing when an elite player continues to play in the environment that made them elite. Adams, the top-scoring fantasy receiver last year and a top-ten fantasy receiver in three of the last five seasons, has played his entire career in Green Bay since being drafted in the second round in 2014. He’s also played his entire career with Rodgers, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. But it also appears that the talk of Rodgers leaving is having an effect on Adams’ dynasty value.

If playing in Green Bay and with Rodgers continues to be true for Adams, his dynasty owners will continue to be very happy and his current dynasty ADP will be a value. But if not? Adams dynasty owners will have to hope that his talent transcends the quarterback throwing him the ball. For now, like Rodgers, Adams is a dynasty hold until we know what will happen.

No Carter Given

Here is a list of RBs selected in Round 4 since 2001. It shows their rookie-season PPR finish and their career-best PPR finish.

The last rookie-season Top 25 was in 2011. Only 7 went on to reach top-10 status.

This is a Michael Carter tweet. pic.twitter.com/9ILCwfRqG1

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) July 2, 2021

Anytime a rookie is getting first-team reps in the off-season, it’s sure to garner attention. That’s what is happening to Michael Carter with little-to-no competition in the Jets’ backfield for touches.

You have 28-year old Tevin Coleman, coming off an injury-filled season; there’s young runners Ty Johnson and La’Mical Perine who have shown very little in their short careers; then there’s Carter, the fourth-round pick of the Jets this year.

Dynasty Impact: The reps in the off-season and the prospect of starting reps early are showing in Carter’s ADP.

But as the tweet from Mike Clay points out, it’s not a sure thing that Carter will be worth all the hype. His draft capital is a huge red flag to him becoming a valuable dynasty asset. Running backs drafted where Carter was just don’t have a tendency to succeed in the short- or long-term.

There’s also the fact that he has yet to be a featured back after sharing the backfield with Javonte Williams at North Carolina. The stat line for Carter was impressive, especially his last season when he averaged eight yards per carry and scored 11 times in 11 games. But he also did it on 181 touches which won’t be enough to cut it as a featured running back in the NFL. I would consider selling Carter now while his ADP is on the rise.

Williams Theory

I’d LOVE to see Mike Williams set a career high in targets in Joe Lombardi's offense this season. He will play the X receiver position which was held by Michael Thomas in New Orleans. #Chargers #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/6EznBOE8Xe

— Moody (@EricNMoody) June 30, 2021

Mike Williams seems to be one of those players who is perpetually on the verge of a breakout. Since being selected seventh overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Williams was widely assumed to be taking over for Keenan Allen for top dog status on the Chargers. And yet, he’s totaled just over 2,500 yards in his four seasons and just 17 touchdowns. And a player who was a top-30 dynasty receiver when he entered the league is now down to about 60.

Dynasty Impact: For Williams, his fantasy value isn’t due to inefficiency. He has a career 16.7 yards-per-reception average but volume has been an issue. He’s never seen more than 89 targets in a season despite playing in 15 games in three of his four seasons.

That could change this year with the departure of tight end Hunter Henry. Henry finished second on the team last year with 93 targets but he signed with New England in the off-season. The Chargers did sign Jared Cook to fill out the depth chart at tight end but the 93 targets represent a big opportunity for Williams. If he can just add a small percentage of those to the 85 he totaled last year, he could easily top 1,000 yards and, hopefully, more touchdowns. It is for this reason that I would make Williams a buy.

Game Baker

Baker Mayfield was the 4th qb since 1950 to play for 3 different head coaches in his first 3 seasons. He's the ONLY one of those four quarterbacks who posted a winning record during this span.

RT if you’ve always believed in Baker 🙌#browns #DawgPound

— Kelsey (@kelseydyoung) June 29, 2021

Besides the fact that the above tweet on Baker Mayfield is impressive for his real-life career. It speaks to the inconsistent coaching he’s experienced. Sure, he averaged nearly 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns in each of his three seasons but there was always more to be expected being the top pick in the draft.

He appears to finally have that in coach, and 2020 Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski. He also has the same supporting cast on the offense for the first time with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham at receiver, Austin Hooper at tight end, and, most crucially, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield.

Dynasty Impact: It’s certainly been a roller coaster as a Mayfield dynasty owner. He had a promising rookie season which propelled his dynasty value to top-five status only for his subsequent two seasons to be statistically flat and tank his ADP.

But for all intents and purposes, it appears his value has straightened out. When you consider the influx of rookie quarterbacks entering the league this season along with the apparent ceiling Mayfield has, a high-end QB2 sounds about right.

According to the DLF Trade Finder, Mayfield alone has been going for a second or third-round rookie pick. Mayfield would be a safer pick than most of the first-round quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL Draft and would provide a more immediate boost to your contending dynasty team.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.