Have we pushed CeeDee Lamb up our dynasty rankings too soon?
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Nope. I’m huge on him.
To his credit he reiterated that he likes lamb, just that he’s overvalued going at WR7 in startups
He actually said overvalued at WR4, appropriately valued at WR7. But sounds like he would deal him if he could get that return on him.
Nah closer to value at WR7, I’d have him around WR10 with Ridley/DHop/MT moving ahead of him
This is a good take on CD! Would you take any of the guys above him in current ADP in a trade for dynasty or would his age factor in over some of the guys like Reek or Adams?
Definitely dependent on team context but if I’m a strong contender I’d be happy to flip him for Tyreek/Diggs/Adams (though my dream situation is flipping him for MT and a future 1, which the DLF trade analyzer thinks you could pull off).
MT is kind of toxic in dynasty right now, I couldn’t stomach parting with Lamb for him and a future 1st unless that pick was a lock for lottery. Even then I’d be hesitant to onboard MT, so much risk with that guy.
MT being toxic in dynasty is exactly why I want to go get him. He’s a locked and loaded ~30% target share with a floor at high WR2/low WR1 and a ceiling of WR1 overall with Jameis at the wheel. One of my favorite buys for contenders.
People may forget that Michael Thomas was still WR1 (as in the #1 WR) during the 2019 season with Teddy Bridgewater. I think it would be hard to find many people who do not think Jameis Winston cannot be at least Teddy B level QB even if he had not had years of giving Evans & Godwin fantasy value. And if MT is pushing 30 that means CeeDee is pushing 24, which means he’ll be 4 years older than the next breakout WR in the 2022 Class!
Yeah, I’ll take the 22 year old with as much upside or more who has a quarterback over MT. MT just won’t be the same without Brees and he is pushing 30 years old as it is.
I’m definitely full on contender mode so this is great. Thanks again for the insight!
If I’m being completely honest, I wanted to tune this entire article out because it misses the biggest point about his rookie season. He played basically all of it with back up quarterbacks. Bendy Nucci?? I mean, he passes the eye test, had outstanding rookie numbers, did it with horrible qb play, and is only 22 years tied to Dak for the rest of his rookie contract.
I don’t really care about anything else. The season was a wash after Dak got hurt so I don’t care whatsoever about the analytics after that point. And yet, he still had tremendous metrics.
Which of the metrics I mentioned were influenced by DiNucci and which of the metrics I didn’t mention is he tremendous in?
Basically all of them is my point. Unless you only collect data for the first 4 games. Which is a super small sample and also his first 4 games ever in the NFL. I don’t find a need to break down his season with backup quarterbacks unless plan on Dak always getting hurt.
I wouldn’t recommend just tossing out data, but if you’re going to where did you have Lamb entering the 2020 season? All the way up at WR7?
I would like to see this exact article style a year from now if/when Lamb plays a whole season with Dak. I agree you should look at some from last year but it is such a strange sample considering he was a 21 year old rookie with backup qbs. Start-up ADP I would have made him top 15 without hesitation. Going into this year I think he definitely warrants top 10 wr dynasty value. I also have an age bias, but I think it’s fair. Ridley, adams, MT and a few other ranked ahead or around Lamb are between 4 and 7 years older. I think I would take the shot on Lamb’s upside and youth. 6-8 more years of Lamb is better than 2-4 more years of those other guys. Not to mention the cliff. I think there’s a chance some of the guys like Adams and MT have their best fantasy finishes behind them.
All the pie talk made me hungry.
Great article though! Interesting reading about how unsustainable the # of dallas pass attempts were over the first 5 weeks.
Also, you said importance of qb play impacting wrs is often overstated. It’d be interesting to read about the stats behind that if you need ideas!
Big CDL fan, here, but I have a standing offer to trade him away in a 14-tm, 1QB league.
I give Lamb, Chris Carson, and 4.13.
I get Tee Higgins, Kareem Hunt, 1.07, and 2.07.
I feel like that is pretty good value.
Your all’s thoughts?
I think that deal is fine but would be tempted to shoot a little higher first. There seem to be a lot of folks who think Lamb is an undisputed top 5 dynasty WR and I’ll bet one of them is in your league and willing to pay more.
How’d you feel about Ja’Marr Chase drafted the very next round, considering this?
I’d have Chase in range but a spot or two behind Lamb. Generally my thought process is Chase has a marginally better profile than Lamb, but while Lamb basically did what I’d expect from someone with his profile as a rookie he also confirmed he’s not a bust (which we couldn’t have been sure about) so he still oughta be ahead of Chase.
I am not an analytics guy at all, imo you can make analytics say whatever you want ( you can do the same with tape too, i am aware of this) i try to factor both tape and analytics in when making decisions. I also honestly just go by a lot of raw numbers because its just the easiest way to go, i dont want to get bogged down too much in the details, that leads to a lot of overthinking. Show me the catches, yards, and tds and ill make my decision based on that. According to the raw stats Ceedee was the second best WR after Jefferon in a stacked class with a back up QB. He is valued perfectly and i think he will be a great player for a long time.
With all of that said i enjoyed the article and i really dont enjoy to many overly analytical articles, so nice job.
I think the raw stats are a bit misleading with Lamb but we’ll see this season! Appreciate you sticking with it through all the numbers haha
Last year and this year I amassed picks for my dynasty rebuild and I took Lamb #2 and Jefferson #9 (with Burrow #6 and Akers #7). Jefferson had a moster season but his QB was not hurt and he was not competing for looks like Lamb. Lamb is the better WR and I believe talent always wins out (but I am sure glad I have both). This year I have 4 1st round picks and 4 second rounds picks. I have the following first round picks #1, #2, #6 and #11. While I don’t know who I will take with #6 and #11, J.Chase and Harris will most likely be #1 and #2.
My league starts 6 skill positions and I will have a hard time deciding who to start every week with the guys I currently have (McCaffrey, Chubb, Akers, AJ Brown, J Jefferson, Lamb, Sutton, Kittle, L. Thomas) not to mention the addition of Chase and Harris but I think my four weekly locks will be McCaffrey, AJ Brown, J Jefferson and Lamb.
My assessment of Lamb is that he is elite and will show it this year. He reminds me of D. Hopkins (a lot) which is funny because I traded Hopkins for 2 firsts and a second and one of the firsts I got I took Lamb.
The injury to Dak was why I focused on usage (which shouldn’t be effected by the QB). And Jefferson was competing with Thielen who’s also a very good WR. I wouldn’t even think about putting Lamb in the same conversation as Jefferson but I think there are a good amount of people that agree with you.
You don’t believe usage changes between backups and an elite starter? It wasn’t some middle of the road starter that the team was missing. Dak was on pace for an absolutely monster fantasy season. I think Lamb’s usage changes drastically because the entire offense changes with a qb change. To be fair though if you say the data says his usage with dak and any other qb is the same then I can only say that quality of usage goes up even if still the same style.
His target share with Dak was ~17% and his target share on the season was ~17%, not much change. I agree he’ll get more efficient targets, but to really produce the way some folks are expecting (I think he’s a top 15 redraft WR?) he’s going to need to take a real step forward in target share on top of those more efficient targets.
Thank you for your comment. While I respect your opinion that usage is a good indicator, I respectfully disagree that the quality of the usage is not contingent on the person throwing the ball to the reciever. Dak is an elite QB (at least for fantasy) and an OC should game plan differently for that type of QB opposed to a QB like Ben Denucci or G Gilbert (i.e. a lot more running and short passing because the QB either cannot go through the progressions and or cannot make some of the throws required). In short, the person throwing the ball matters because it affects game planning and scheme and ultimately the type of targets a WR ultimately gets.
Moreover, time will tell if Lamb is in the same conversation as Jefferson. Jefferson was competing with one good WR for targets and Lamb was competing with two. When Gallop and or Cooper move on, Lamb should have more opportunities. I am anxious to see Lamb this year with a healthy Dak (main reason I think he is a lock starter every week). Lamb and Jefferson can both be top 10 WRs in the forseeable future, possibly as soon as this year.
I like Lamb, but there is a lot of great WR’s in the league right now, I can see him pushing top 10 moving forward year in and out.