The Current Superflex QB ADP Landscape
Recently, I did an article on exciting takeaways from June’s 1QB DLF ADP. Now, I want to take a closer look at June’s superflex ADP data, focusing specifically on the quarterback position. Of course, quarterbacks carry the most value of any position in superflex leagues, far different from their status in 1QB leagues. As most dynasty managers know, the quarterback position barely matters in 1 QB dynasty formats, and quarterbacks rarely come up in trade discussions.
However, the quarterback position couldn’t be more different in superflex leagues. Knowing the superflex quarterback market is essential to your success, and I’d argue that it’s the most crucial factor in building a solid superflex dynasty roster. With all that said, let’s jump into the ADP data!
Dynasty Managers Finally Appreciate Top-Tier Quarterbacks
This off-season, I’ve noticed a shift in how dynasty managers build their superflex rosters. Generally, most people want to start their teams with at least one stud quarterback, which pushes quarterbacks up the board.
Right now, these six quarterbacks represent six of the first seven players off the board in superflex startup drafts, with only Christian McCaffrey breaking in at sixth overall. Mahomes is the clear top overall selection, while the following five players represent a distinct Tier 2. I agree entirely with the drafters, as I begin my superflex startup rankings with seven straight quarterbacks.
I also include Trevor Lawrence in Tier 2, and I would select him over any non-quarterback as well. If I have a top-seven pick, I typically will hang onto that pick to make sure I can grab a top-tier quarterback. Right now, Lawrence has an ADP of 11, so I can often get him in the late first. However, I wouldn’t trade back and risk losing him. Securing quarterback stability is vital in superflex leagues, and that’s always my top priority at the beginning of startup drafts.
Aaron Rodgers is Insanely Overvalued
Yes, I know. Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and he’s an amazing quarterback on his way to the Hall of Fame. However, I couldn’t disagree more with his current superflex ADP, given his 37-year old age and his current situation.
Rodgers finds himself sandwiched directly between Justin Fields and Trey Lance in ADP, at QB11. To me, the idea that Rodgers holds similar dynasty value to Fields or Lance is a laughable proposition. Fields and Lance are both over 15 years younger than Rodgers, and both present immense rushing upside.
No matter how well Rodgers performs, he will never rise higher than his current price, whereas Fields and Lance could easily be first-round startup picks in a year. For example, Joe Burrow doesn’t possess the same rushing upside as those two rookies, and he suffered a severe injury in his rookie year. However, he’s currently the QB9 with an ADP of 12.75. Passing on that type of potential for a dying asset in Rodgers is dynasty malpractice.
But let’s move on from Fields and Lance for a minute, as I believe they’re a good bit undervalued in this data set anyway. Rodgers is already 37 years old, and he currently refuses to return and play for the Packers. I take his threat to hold out or miss games very seriously, and any missed time would immediately tank his dynasty value at his age.
Therefore, I would also prefer some other veteran quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford over Rodgers. Both players will be 33 years old at the start of the NFL season, making them over four years younger than Rodgers. Additionally, they both have long-term security through 2022 at a minimum, with the potential for additional years beyond that. Stafford’s current price seems fair at QB15 and 39.75 overall, but Tannehill is a steal at QB18 and 51.25 overall.
With AJ Brown, Derrick Henry, and Julio Jones, and Tannehill’s rushing ability, I’d almost rather have Tannehill in redraft leagues over Rodgers, even if we knew Rodgers would return to the Packers for 17 games. Given the age difference and the lack of uncertainty around Tannehill, it’s an easy choice for me to select Tannehill in superflex startups over Rodgers.
In general, I don’t find Rodgers worth the risk at his current price. He’s old and currently isn’t going to play for the Packers. He also has zero opportunity to rise in dynasty value, unlike other far younger quarterbacks I have ahead of him like Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Zach Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa. I rank Rodgers at dynasty QB19, and I’m entirely comfortable with that decision.
Later QBs Have Upside if You Hit the Right One
I’ve already emphasized that quarterbacks are crucial to a dynasty superflex roster. Therefore, hitting on a late-round quarterback can be a massive boon, especially if you managed to stack your roster with stellar running backs and wide receivers earlier in the startup. There’s a clear group of six relatively young quarterbacks that you can find outside the top-six rounds right now that provide that type of upside.
Of course, you can always draft older quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ben Roethlisberger as a short-term band-aid, but those players have no value upside. If you want to set your team up for long-term success, I suggest looking at the following group of quarterbacks.
These quarterbacks are 30 years old or younger, and I believe that their current NFL team would like them to be their franchise quarterback. If any of these six players have a stellar 2021 season, they could become entrenched as their team’s starter moving forward. I’m not sure that any of these players will earn trust as a dynasty QB1, although both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones have been in that range before.
Of these players, I would prefer to roster Jones over the others. He’s only 24 years old, and he’s just now entering his third NFL season. The Giants picked him sixth overall in 2019, so they would obviously like him to turn into their long-term quarterback.
Considering that Jones was a rookie in 2019, and he lost Saquon Barkley for most of 2020, he recorded decent numbers for his first two seasons. He also provides rushing upside, unlike most of the other quarterbacks in this range.
Additionally, from a value perspective, Jones hasn’t earned the “failure” tag like Wentz, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, or Jared Goff, whose original teams gave up on them. As my readers and listeners know, the perception of failure is difficult for dynasty assets to overcome, especially for higher-end assets. And while Derek Carr has been a starter since 2014, he feels like one of those “boring” dynasty assets which will never earn high-end value. Therefore, when searching in this range, dynasty managers should choose the asset with the most upside, as all of these quarterbacks carry risk.
Summary
Outside of a few quirks, the superflex dynasty quarterback landscape seems pretty spot on. High-end quarterbacks have the respect and value they deserve, while QB2s carry significant value without being overvalued. Younger and risky quarterbacks come in next, followed by the older quarterbacks and borderline starters.
This ADP data shows me that superflex dynasty drafters are generally becoming savvier about the quarterback position, and gaining edges is tougher than ever before. Dynasty managers must therefore work harder on trading during their startups and finding creative ways to surpass their leaguemates.
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