Is Cam Akers Priced too Highly in Fantasy Football?

Editor’s note: This article is by Member Corner writer Nate Williams. Please welcome Nate and provide constructive feedback in the comments section.

Despite the regular season still being several months away from kicking off, many fantasy football leagues have already commenced their drafting. I get it and am guilty of it too. We can’t wait to get started. One thing I like about starting a few leagues well before the season is that you get a chance to get an up-close and personal look at player ADPs and the price tag for some of the names you may be targeting.

As there is every year, there are some punching their tickets for the hype trains and others that are hesitant on certain players. One player who some seemed concerned about as we chug along towards the 2021 NFL season is Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers.

Standing 5-foot-11 and weighing in at 217 pounds, Akers has the prototypical size to be a workhorse ball carrier as a pro and was one of the more dynamic prospects at the collegiate level, despite running behind a poor offensive line at Florida State. He possesses a stellar blend of solid vision, good balance, and acceleration to go with some speed and power.

The sample size was relatively small last year, and some owners seem to be worried that Akers may have been a flash in the pan and not a sure-fire stud for years to come. Because of this, we’re going to take a closer look to see what we should make of last year’s post-season shocker.

Hurdles for the 2020 Draft Class

The running back class of the 2020 NFL Draft is one of the most promising groups at the position in recent memory. Akers of FSU, Clyde Edwards-Helaire of LSU, Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin, D’Andre Swift of Georgia, JK Dobbins of Ohio State, Zack Moss of Utah, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn of Vanderbilt all burst onto the fantasy scene and many were highly touted in startup and rookie drafts last year.

Of those seven players mentioned, all had relatively decent first years with the teams they were drafted by, although some may feel indifferent about that statement. The reason for this is based on where they were drafted last season, the production may not have been in line with the expectations that came with it.

For example, after a hot start to the year, Edwards-Helaire saw a reduction in productivity in terms of fantasy scoring following Kansas City adding free-agent running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell was not relevant in fantasy, but his presence on the roster resulted in a loss of touches for Edwards-Helaire. By the end of 2020, Edwards-Helaire finished as the RB22 and played in 13 games after starting the year as the highest targeted rookie by many fantasy owners.

Additionally, none of the seven players mentioned above came out and set the world on fire immediately. Now, some did have a solid first-year as a pro, but it took some time to get going — that includes Akers.

Current Price Tag

As we enter the sophomore season for these second-year players, there are several who impressed enough last year to become first and second-round picks in dynasty startups. According to DLF ADP, Taylor is the consensus RB2, Swift the RB6, Akers the RB8, and Dobbins the RB10.

Due to the fact that there seems to be a known drop-off at the position in terms of talent and opportunity combined, running back is a position that is highly targeted early in drafts — especially in one-QB leagues. There is the potential that arguments can be made against all of these guys, but today we’re going to focus on Akers and attempt to determine if the Rams’ ball-carrier is priced fairly at his ADP as of mid-June, 2021.

Before going too much further, I will say that I am a believer in Akers’ abilities. Late in the regular season and into the playoffs, the former Seminole showed us that the potential is there to be a productive NFL running back for many years to come.

The 2020 season will forever be remembered as the year of the pandemic and fan-less games. The argument can be made that Covid-19 played a major role in so many players getting off to a slow start last season. In Akers’s case, that argument, as well as some ill-timed injuries, certainly played a role.

He didn’t have a real “break-out” game until Week 13 last year. Following no pre-season and missed games, Akers was basically an afterthought as owners made a late-season push and entered the playoffs, but that didn’t last long. In the Rams game against the New England Patriots, Akers rushed for 171 yards. In turn, he was instantly on the fantasy radar.

Mow, if you want Akers as a part of your roster build, you’re going to have to pay a hefty price. Entering 2020, Akers’ dynasty ADP according to DLF was 36.4. Entering 2021, it is up to 14.5.

As the roughly eighth-best running back available in startups, he is currently ranked around players like fellow sophomores Swift and Dobbins as well as Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.

What makes him most appealing to me in terms of dynasty value is also his age. Akers is currently just 21 years old.

The Rams Offense and Akers’s Opportunity

When comparing Akers against his peers at a similar ranking, you have to be careful when looking at raw data due to the fact that Akers only started five games and only played in 12 total last season. Each player faces unique challenges as well, like a lack of targets through the air, differences in offensive style and play-calling, the performance of the offensive line, and who the quarterback is for each respective team.

Chubb loses a lot of third-down work to teammate Kareem Hunt due to Hunt’s premiere ability to catch the ball and rack up yards after the catch statistics. Dobbins plays with perhaps the best rushing quarterback of all time in former NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who does not have the tendency to throw to his tailbacks, as well as a formidable teammate who could steal carries in 2021, despite Dobbins averaging six yards per carry last year.

So what does Akers’ situation look like?

Well, for starters, there is a new signal-caller in town in L.A. Gone is former first-overall pick and California kid, Jared Goff. Taking his place is former Detroit Lions quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who has shown the ability to put up points and lead an electric offensive attack. There is no doubt, with head coach Sean McVay calling plays, Stafford under center, and the core of the wide receiver unit still intact with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, this offensive should be really competitive and should be scoring more points than the did in 2020.

This is great for Akers in the sense of the possibility of a rather large uptick in rushing touchdowns and goal-line carries.

Now for the negatives worth noting.

For starters, Malcolm Brown has gone to Miami despite signing an extension in 2020. That’s a good thing for Akers and his owners. What’s bad is the presence of Darrell Henderson remains with the Rams. Henderson was drafted in 2019 is still a young productive player. He even proved this during Akers’ absence early last season. Personally, I don’t see a world where McVay doesn’t use Henderson in some capacity, and it would be foolish not to. By utilizing both backs, it will help keep the wear and tear off of Akers, and as we all know — the season is now 17 games in 2021.

Now, the world where teams have just one main running back is all but gone, except for a few exceptions. Akers can still be productive while sharing the backfield, but it’s worth noting that he won’t get all of the team’s carries.

One more negative that we need to point out is targeted at the owners in points-per-reception leagues (PPR). PPR formats are exactly what they sound like: players are scored extra points for every reception they make on game day. Usually, it is .5 points are one full point.

If you’re an owner in a PPR league, you may be better looking elsewhere if possible when drafting a running back early, because frankly, Akers does not get a ton of targets. In fact, he had just 14 last season, catching 11 of them for 123 yards and one score. Could this number increase in 2021? Of course. But the Rams are loaded up at the skill positions so it could also stay very much the same.

Coach Speak

For some fantasy football managers, coach speak is nothing more than a desperate attempt to find some sort of news that is fantasy-relevant during the off-season. For others, it’s a look inside of the organization and a glimpse as to what the future may hold for certain players. If you’re one of the people who believe in it, you’re liking what you’re hearing in terms of Akers in Los Angeles.

Recently, head coach McVay gave everyone hopes that Akers may in fact be in line for a Todd Gurley-type role with his team this year.

Sean McVay on RB Cam Akers: “I think he’s an every-down back, I think he’s a very special player.”

Said his production and development last year was a credit not only to Akers, but also the amount of time assistant head coach/RBs coach Thomas Brown invested in working with him.

— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) February 25, 2021

This is promising news for Akers owners and should have you excited.

Conclusion

Taking everything into consideration that we’ve mentioned in this article, I have to say that drafting Cam Akers is something I will continue to do moving forward. However, I’ll be doing so knowing there is some risk and expectations should be tempered — at least some.

Akers averaged 21.5 carries and 2.8 targets per game in the last four games of the 2020 season, has the physical abilities to succeed, a solid offense around him, and the head coach believes in him.

His price tag means he’s being drafted with full RB1 expectations though, and I do not think it is out of the realm of possibilities that he could finish as a mid-level RB2.

I fully expect Henderson to still be in the picture, but if Akers can continue to play roughly 60 percent of the offensive snaps, he should be okay in terms of production. Looking back at last year, he was efficient enough. But, remember, Henderson was sidelined late last year with a high-ankle sprain.

In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get more passing work for PPR formats to lock-in that RB1 status. With the Rams’ change at quarterback, it’s possible that an up-tick in receiving work could happen.

At the end of the day, try to keep in mind that Akers’ finishing 2021 considerably lower than his ADP is a possibility. You have to determine if it’s a risk you’re willing to take.