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Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kellen Mond, QB MIN

Does Kellen Mond have a path to fantasy stardom? We take a closer look.

Kellen Mond

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Kellen Mond

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Minnesota Vikings

College Team: Texas A&M Aggies

Draft Status: Round three, 66th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’2 5/8”
  • Weight: 211 pounds
  • Hand Size: 9 3/8”
  • 40 Yard Dash: 4.62 seconds

Try not to get too excited that Mond’s top player comparison at MockDraftable.com is Lamar Jackson. It only takes a quick scroll to the second closest comp, Mac Jones, to curb that enthusiasm and cast into question the rating criteria. Jackson and Jones could not be more different. It is admittedly intriguing that Mond manages to combine the two players.

That said, the spider chart suggests Mond’s top physical attributes are top-end speed, short-area burst (as measured by a 67th-percentile ten-yard split), wingspan, and arm length.

STRENGTHS

  • Size
  • Experience: 46 career games at Texas A&M
  • Rushing ability: 1,600 career rushing yards and 22 touchdowns
  • Speed: 4.62-second 40-yard dash
  • Draft capital
  • Arm strength

WEAKNESSES

  • Inefficient college production. Mond’s career adjusted yards per attempt, a common measure of efficiency, puts him in the bottom third of historical NFL quarterback prospects
  • Accuracy: 59% career completion percentage
  • Poor anticipation

OPPORTUNITIES

Opportunities are likely limited for Mond in the near term. Kirk Cousins is signed for another two seasons but will be a 35-year-old free agent in 2023. There is a clear path for Mond to learn for two years then take over as the Vikings’ starter, but it is far from certain. Third-round draft capital, though perhaps surprisingly high for Mond, does not guarantee him a shot at a starting job.

That said, the team’s depth chart is wide open. Mond’s current competition for the backup job includes former undrafted free agent Jake Browning and 2020 seventh-round pick Nate Stanley. Mond should quickly become the QB2 in Minnesota, at which point he is one play away from fantasy relevance, especially in superflex/2QB leagues. At that point, he may not be in full command of the playbook but rushing production could set a floor for fantasy teams as he progresses as a passer.

From a developmental perspective, Mond’s opportunities include improving his anticipation and intermediate to deep efficiency. Per NFL.com, he completed only 35% of intermediate throws outside the numbers in 2020.

THREATS

In the near term, Mond would be threatened if the Vikings sign a veteran free agent to back up Cousins. Fantasy managers who are selecting Mond are not expecting him to be an immediate starter. However, they are expecting him to be the team’s QB2. Anything short of that is a disappointment.

The longer-term threat is that Mond does not earn the Vikings starting job when Cousins’ contract expires. As a third-round pick, Mond has the draft capital to earn consideration for the role but simultaneously lacks the draft capital to more or less be guaranteed a shot. Devoting a dynasty roster spot to a player whose best-case look at production is in three years is not an attractive proposition.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

In the short term, Mond should serve as the primary backup to Kirk Cousins. Therefore, his value in 1QB leagues is extremely limited absent an injury to Captain Kirk. In superflex/2QB leagues he holds limited value as a young player just one potential injury from a starting role. In that scenario, Mond would make an excellent candidate to sell, as I do not project him as a long-term NFL starter.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

While Mond flashes good arm strength, athleticism, and toughness, he is too inconsistent to project as a long-term fantasy-relevant starter. My long-term expectation is that he falls out of the league when his rookie contract expires, or that he bounces around for another few years as a backup.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

The player comparison that sticks with me is Akili Smith. Though Smith played in only 23 collegiate games, his production and efficiency were superior to Mond’s and were enough to make him the third overall pick in the 1999 NFL draft. Smith ultimately started just 17 games in four professional seasons with Cincinnati, throwing five touchdowns to 13 interceptions and managing a paltry 3.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Mond is the rookie QB7 in terms of ADP in 1QB leagues. His ADP of 44 puts him near the end of the fourth round among players such as tight end Hunter Long and Stanford quarterback Davis Mills. The DLF rankings have him as the number 47 rookie between tight end Brevin Jordan and sleeper running back Kene Nwangwu.

In superflex/2QB ADP he rises a round to 33rd overall as QB8 between wide receiver Tylan Wallace and running back Elijah Mitchell. Our Rookie Superflex Rankings are higher on him with a rank of 28th – still as QB8 but among players such as Chuba Hubbard and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kellen Mond, QB MIN
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