Why Jakobi Meyers is the Most Undervalued Wide Receiver in Dynasty Leagues

Judging by current ADP, dynasty managers don’t have much interest in the New England offense.

According to the May DLF ADP data, the team’s top-valued quarterback is Mac Jones at QB22, top-valued running back is Damien Harris at RB35, top-valued receiver is Nelson Agholor at WR70, and top-ranked tight end is Jonnu Smith at TE15.

It’s hard to blame them too much – using the DLF Coaching History App, we can see every part of the offense saw a decline in production last season:

Why Was the New England Offense So Unproductive in 2020?

Raw production doesn’t tell the full story – some of the production drop seems to have been by design. 2020 represented the first year since Josh McDaniels’ return to New England that the offense ranked outside the top 13 in plays per game, and only the second time that they ranked outside the top six.

It ought to be straightforward that the fewer plays an offense calls, the fewer opportunities the skill position players on that team have to score points. It could be the case that the lower play volume is due to an incredibly efficient offense, but we can reasonably determine that wasn’t the case for the 2020 Patriots, who ranked 27th in points scored per game and 21st in yards per play.

Before we get to whether we expect this to change, let’s first see if there were any other dynamics skewing the skill position production. Further investigation in the Coaching History App identifies one almost immediately – New England did not want to throw the ball. 2020 represents the few pass attempts per game of any team McDaniels has ever coached, dipping below the 2006 Patriots by over five attempts per game:

While some of this is certainly a function of the low play volume identified earlier, there also was a strategic shift away from passing and towards running. The 2020 Patriots threw on just 46.7% of their plays, good for 31st in the league and again representing the lowest value of McDaniels’ career:

So in summary, we have plays per game working against the entire offense, and pass/rush balance working against the pass-catchers in particular (and arguably against Cam Newton as well, though he is somewhat unique amongst QBs in that he likely net benefitted from the shift towards QB rushes).

Is This the New Normal for New England?

Before diving into the specifics here, I want to point out that my blanket answer to “should we expect this extreme situation to continue?” is virtually always no. But in this specific situation, we have several concrete reasons to believe this isn’t the new normal.

The first is that the change in offensive philosophy coincided specifically with the shift in personnel from Tom Brady to Cam Newton. Now, you’re not an NFL head coach, but I suspect if I asked you what strategic shifts you’d recommend accompany that personnel change, you’d likely suggest something similar to what NE implemented. Since this shift, the Patriots have gone and used a first-round NFL draft pick on a QB whose style is similar to Brady’s and bears no resemblance to Newton’s. Whenever Mac Jones takes over, it’s reasonable to expect a dramatic shift back towards passing, and likely an uptick in plays called per game as well.

The other reason we should likely expect regression is because the 2020 offense was very bad, and the Patriots are used to having a very good offense. 2020 represented their lowest points per game of this second McDaniels era (since 2012):

When we combine an outlier year in terms of a scheme that coincided with a dramatic shift in personnel and a steep downturn in production, we should absolutely expect a reversion to (and potentially past) the mean when Jones steps into the pocket.

Jakobi Meyers Will Be the 2021 Patriots WR1

Now that I’ve set the table for why this offense is likely to look more appealing in 2021, we can get to the fun part of the article – my affinity for Jakobi Meyers. Please permit me to lead off with the unfiltered hype, and then I promise to address the caveats at the end.

Here is a list of every WR since 2009 to put up a per game target share of 23-27% in their second year in the league. The players highlighted green have at least one top-five finish, yellow one top 12, orange one top 24:

Here’s every WR since 2009 to put up a per game yards per team pass attempt (a simpler version of yards per route run) between 2.0-2.4 in year two (same color scheme):

When using some of the more advanced stats ESPN has available to them, Meyers’ skill at earning targets and separating puts him in the company of WRs like Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry:

By request from @fbgchase, here's separation over expectation on targets (x) by targets per route run (y).

Same caveats in above tweets still apply. pic.twitter.com/1bVoL0viDM

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) March 19, 2021

Meyers also performed well enough in 2020 that PFF listed him as their 25th best WR in the league. And for good measure, here is a clip of Meyers dusting a defensive back off the line of scrimmage:

oh my god

Jakobi "🐐" Meyers just did unlawful things to his man from the slot on the slant for a first down on third down. pic.twitter.com/4BOohQQoel

— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) August 18, 2019

And on top of all that, he’s just 24 years old and only started playing WR the week before his redshirt freshman season at NC State.

Raining on the Parade

Okay, fine. You’ve listened to me preach the virtues of Meyers, now we can get to the caveat. I will try to run through them quickly and give a concise response (in bold).

• He had no target competition in 2020 – he’s the WR93 in DLF ADP
• They added skill position players at WR and TE to siphon away volume – he’s the 216th pick in 1QB ADP
• UDFAs are rarely successful – did you see those comparisons up above?
• Newton may start the whole season and slow the offensive regression – the DLF Trade Analyzer thinks you could get him for a third-round pick

In all seriousness, my dismissal of these caveats comes down to two things – talent and cost. My fundamental belief is that targets are earned, and the share of targets that Meyers earned in 2020 indicates we should assume he is a more talented player than Nelson Agholor or Kendrick Bourne and will continue to earn more targets than them. And at his current cost, I don’t really care if I’m wrong – Meyers is attainable for a third-round rookie pick and almost all third-round rookie picks fail. The statistical comps we saw from Meyers above indicate his realistic ceiling is dramatically higher than most any player you can get at his ADP or trade value.

His current value is suppressed by a combination of an anemic 2020 NE offense and a natural bias against UDFAs who haven’t “proven it” yet. Now is a great time to take advantage of that value and get Jakobi Meyers on your dynasty teams.

If you have any feedback or think I missed an angle here, please leave a comment or reach out to me on Twitter @Cooper_DFF.

Why Jakobi Meyers is the Most Undervalued Wide Receiver in Dynasty Leagues