Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Anthony Schwartz, WR CLE
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Anthony Schwartz
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Cleveland Browns
College Team: Auburn
Draft Status: Round three, 91st overall
Video Highlights
Combine Review
Strengths
Schwartz’s main strength is his blazing speed. He displayed that speed in his 40-yard dash, where he recorded an impressive 4.27-second time. In the video I selected above, there were a few plays where Schwartz used his speed to get open, but Auburn quarterback Bo Nix missed him. Unfortunately, I wish I had more to add when it comes to Schwartz’s strengths. He really seems like a speed-only prospect to me, so let’s move into the weaknesses.
Weaknesses
I think Schwartz’s central weakness can best be described by a pair of charts.
Receiver A:
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Receiver B:
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Now, I assume any sane dynasty manager would prefer “receiver B” between these two players. Both players played for three seasons at Auburn, but receiver B had far more yards and touchdowns, along with a narrow lead in receptions. Honestly, these two players are barely even comparable to me based on their numbers alone.
Unfortunately, as you may have guessed, receiver A is Schwartz, and receiver B is his teammate, sixth-round pick Seth Williams. If Schwartz failed to outproduce a future sixth-round pick, he’s automatically not a very intriguing prospect. In the 2020 class, we saw a similar situation play out when Henry Ruggs went before Jerry Jeudy, despite Jeudy being a superior prospect. Of course, Ruggs flopped in his rookie year, while Jeudy had a far better season.
However, the comparison with Williams is far from Schwartz’s only weakness. He’s relatively short, skinny, and he butchered the three-cone drill. He also boasts a poor wingspan and poor arm length. It’s also not like his college production is good on its own, even separate from Williams’ output.
I can’t get excited by six receiving touchdowns in three years of college football, as a solid prospect would have found the end zone more often. 12.2 yards/reception is also stunningly low for an alleged deep threat. I like that Schwartz saw involvement in the rushing game and scored seven rushing touchdowns, but I dislike that his carries declined every year. That pattern suggests his rushing production may have been an aberration. Schwartz’s profile is full of holes, and I see everything outside of his speed as a weakness.
Opportunities
I wish I had something positive to say about Schwartz’s immediate opportunity, but I honestly can’t find anything. The Browns have a locked-in top two at wide receiver with Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry. They also prefer to play 12 personnel, especially considering they have three relevant tight ends: Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant, and David Njoku. On top of those weapons, they could also deploy Kareem Hunt as a receiver to complement workhorse running back Nick Chubb.
Schwartz also faces competition for the WR3 role when the Browns do utilize 11 personnel. The Browns re-signed veteran Rashard Higgins to a one-year, $2.377 million contract. Higgins is one of Baker Mayfield’s favorite receivers, and I expect him to begin as the WR3 in 2021. The Browns also have 2020 sixth-rounder Donovan Peoples-Jones, who flashed at times in his rookie season. I’d be surprised if Schwartz gets on the field much as a rookie, let alone produces any fantasy numbers.
Threats
I mentioned many threats in the previous section, but I believe that Higgins is the most significant short-term threat to Schwartz. The Browns are a contending team that made the playoffs in 2020. I can’t see them removing a veteran who the quarterback likes for a raw, unproven rookie. But generally, until either Beckham Jr or Landry moves on from this roster, it barely even matters if Schwartz can beat out Higgins. Those two receivers and Hooper leave little room behind them for anyone else to produce on this run-first team.
Short-Term Expectations
I hope there are zero short-term expectations for Schwartz. He won’t do anything relevant in 2021 for fantasy football. A few flashes similar to what Peoples-Jones did in 2020 would go a long way for Schwartz’s value for dynasty managers. His third-round draft capital should keep him relevant for at least a season or two, as long as he does something on the field that dynasty managers can hang onto.
Long-Term Expectations
I actually have decent long-term hopes for Schwartz in Cleveland. The Browns can escape Beckham Jr’s contract after 2021 for zero dead money, saving $15 million in cap room. They can also save $15 million by releasing Landry after 2021. I expect them to move on from one of their top two receivers, potentially leaving an opening for Schwartz to ascend to the number two receiver role. I’m not saying that he necessarily will reach that spot, but his draft capital at least gives him a shot. If he flashes in 2021, that also might help the Browns feel better about parting ways with either Beckham Jr or Landry.
NFL Player Comparison
Honestly, I don’t see Schwartz as a true, successful NFL wide receiver. He reminds me somewhat of the world-class sprinters who have had limited success translating their games onto the NFL field. I would throw out Marquise Goodwin as a relatively high-end comparison for Schwartz, though. Like Schwartz, Goodwin is a somewhat smaller player with elite speed. Goodwin had one solid year for the 49ers in 2017, although he achieved only limited success in the rest of his NFL career.
Unfortunately, I think Schwartz more accurately compares to some previous speedy receiver busts. He could easily have a career path like Phillip Dorsett or Jacoby Ford, track stars who never produced anything significant. JJ Nelson and Darrius Heyward-Bey also come to mind as examples of receivers who had decent NFL careers but never made a fantasy impact. That’s mostly how I see Schwartz. He’s a player that may be helpful for the Browns, but I doubt we’re ever going to want to start him in our fantasy lineups.
Projected Rookie Draft Range
Schwartz is currently the 32nd rookie in May’s DLF 1 QB rookie ADP. Given his draft capital, that price seems fair, although I’m not in on him as a prospect whatsoever. But he comes in at precisely the same spot in my personal rookie rankings, so I suppose I can’t argue.
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