Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kyle Trask, QB TB

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Kyle Trask

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

College Team: Florida Gators

Draft Status: Round two, 64th overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Strengths

Trask has strengths from his measurables. He has an impressive 10 1/8’’ hand size, although I’m always slightly skeptical of hand size as a metric for quarterbacks. But it can’t hurt that he has large hands to help him control the ball. He also boasts an impressive height-weight combo, which will allow him a good vision of the field and the ability to take hits well in the NFL.

Trask’s statistics are even better than his body metrics, though.

Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

He played most of 2019 and 2020 as Florida’s starter, and he excelled once he took over the starting job. He posted an impressive 68 touchdowns compared to only 15 interceptions in his two starting seasons. Most notably, he improved significantly from 2019 to 2020, recording a better completion percentage, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and passing yards. That improvement demonstrated that Trask grew as a talent from 2019 to 2020, and he could potentially continue that growth in the NFL.

Trask’s solid 2020 season turned wide receiver Kadarius Toney into a first-round NFL Draft pick, and he also supported star tight end Kyle Pitts. I’m pleased to see that a potential NFL starter can work with potent receiving weapons, as he will undoubtedly need to do so in the NFL. Even more impressively, Toney did essentially nothing in his Florida career until Trask’s 2020 eruption, meaning that Trask may have made a superstar out of a mediocre player. That type of talent is precisely what the best NFL quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes deliver regularly.

Weaknesses

Unfortunately, it took Trask a while to receive an opportunity to play for Florida. He redshirted the 2016 season before missing the entire 2017 season with an injury. Then in 2018, he lost the competition for the starting job to Feleipe Franks, serving as a pure backup quarterback. He saw action in three games before he suffered a season-ending foot injury.

Going into 2019, Trask lost the starting competition to Franks, and he only took the starting job after Franks got hurt. Franks was a UDFA in the 2021 NFL Draft, so it’s slightly concerning that Trask couldn’t beat out a lesser talent over two years. Of course, college coaches make mistakes all the time, like Jake Fromm starting over Justin Fields at Georgia. But it’s hard to deny the fact that Trask likely never even would have played without Franks’ injury.

While Trask has decent potential as an NFL quarterback, he has one major issue for fantasy football. He does not run the ball whatsoever. His 5.08-second 40-yard dash time is putrid for a modern quarterback, especially compared to the other quarterbacks in this class. Even Mac Jones put up a 4.83-second performance in the 40-yard dash, a complete quarter-second faster than Trask. As we know, Jones is a pure pocket passer and has little rushing ability, so Trask looks abysmal in the ground department.

Even worse, his on-field college performance confirms the narrative from his slow 40-yard dash time.

Trask totaled a vile 58 yards on 127 carries in his two starting seasons, which is embarrassing. He did manage to score seven rushing touchdowns, but I’m wholly unimpressed. Quarterbacks that can’t run rarely succeed in the modern fantasy game. Trask’s new teammate Tom Brady was the only strong fantasy quarterback in 2020 who didn’t deliver any relevant rushing yards. Unless Trask is the next Brady, he’ll struggle to find any fantasy ceiling at all.

Opportunities

Trask doesn’t come with any immediate opportunity. He will sit as Brady’s backup for at least 2021 and possibly for multiple years to come. Buccaneers’ general manager Jason Licht left the door open for Brady to play until he’s 50 years old in a recent statement. Brady turns 44 years old in August, but it’s tough to bet against a unique athlete like him. Trask will not receive a chance to play until Brady hangs up his cleats.

Threats

Of course, Brady is the primary threat. He could decide to play for as long as he wants, permanently blocking Trask’s path to playing time. Additionally, the Buccaneers could easily choose to acquire another proven veteran when Brady retires, or they could spend a first-round pick on a quarterback. A dynasty rookie pick spent on Trask may never return any value at all.

Short-Term Expectations

Like I said in the opportunities and threats section, it’s clear that dynasty managers should have zero short-term expectations for Trask. Brady hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2008, and even if he does, the Buccaneers may turn to veteran backup Blaine Gabbert as a temporary starter. There’s essentially no chance Trask even sees the field in 2021.

Long-Term Expectations

If Trask becomes the Buccaneers’ starter, he may get to work with some of the Buccaneers’ current strong receiving weapons. Although, who knows how many of them will remain on the roster by that time. But if he sees the field, he represents a low-upside fantasy option. His complete lack of rushing skills will almost certainly prevent him from entering the QB1 range, and his ceiling is more of a high-end QB2 at the absolute best.

NFL Player Comparison

On the highest end, Trask’s best comparable is Brady himself. Brady also delivered little to no rushing ability but excelled as a passer throughout his career. It’s a lifetime ago, but Brady also struggled and competed in college for playing time against another quarterback in Drew Henson. That struggle led Brady to fall to the sixth round, and the same issues may have hurt Trask’s draft stock.

However, that’s where the similarities end. I doubt that Trask will ever become Brady or even other solid pocket quarterbacks like Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins. Trask even compares poorly as a prospect to pocket passer Mac Jones from this same draft class.

I think Trask is more like Jimmy Garoppolo than anyone else. Like Garoppolo, Trask has a history of injuries, little to no rushing upside, and succeeded with stellar weapons but struggled without them. Garoppolo is the most accurate comparison for Trask of recent players that obtained a starting job for any significant period. Actual comparisons would likely include a bunch of borderline starters, which more reflects Trask’s talent level.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

In 1QB rookie drafts, Trask is a completely wasted pick. In May’s DLF rookie ADP, he was the 42nd player off the board and the QB6 behind the “big five” rookie quarterbacks. I’d much rather take a shot on a running back, wide receiver, or tight end in that range instead of waiting on Trask for years. He doesn’t even have fantasy upside, and I doubt he’ll ever become a top-12 fantasy quarterback.

However, in superflex rookie drafts, Trask represents a more exciting conversation. Any starting quarterback holds superflex value, and he certainly at least has a chance to be a future starter. Right now, he is the 29th player taken in superflex rookie ADP, which seems like a value to me. In a relatively weak and shallow rookie class, I’d probably prefer to take my chances with Trask’s value upside over a low-percentage dart at another position. The upside of hitting on a starting quarterback in superflex is too high to pass on at that point.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kyle Trask, QB TB