Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Tutu Atwell, WR LAR
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Tutu Atwell
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Los Angeles Rams
College Team: Louisville
Draft Status: Round two, 57th overall
Video Highlights
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cPxPyM5OYuc
Combine Review
I think it’s essential to address the elephant in the room, which is Atwell’s size. Mockdraftable has him at 5’ 8 7/8’’ and 155 pounds. However, he apparently came in at 5’ 8’’ and 149 pounds at NFL tests in Indianapolis. I can’t think of any NFL player who has succeeded under 150 pounds, so Atwell would essentially be a one-of-a-kind story.
Most of the narrative surrounding Atwell is related to his size, so there’s no way to avoid discussing it upfront. He’s a tiny player, and he looks that way in his film as well. We’re not talking about a player who looks bigger and then weighed in far lighter. His weight and measurements accurately represent the player he was on the field.
Strengths
Let’s ignore Atwell’s size for a minute and examine his college production.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Atwell impressed as a true freshman in 2018, immediately breaking into the receiver rotation, despite being a converted quarterback from high school. He finished third in receiving yards behind senior Jaylen Smith and fellow 2021 draft pick, sophomore Dez Fitzpatrick. Then, in 2019, he soared to relevance, putting up almost double Fitzpatrick’s receiving yards and receptions in a dominant sophomore season.
Unfortunately, he somewhat regressed in 2020, failing to match the heights of his 2019 season, although he still had a solid junior year. He led the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns, even though Fitzpatrick beat him out in yardage. As a whole, Atwell’s college profile doesn’t look too shabby.
Chart courtesy of DLF College Market Share app.
He broke out in his age-19 season, and he wasn’t too far off the baseline regression value for successful NFL wide receivers in his other two college seasons. In 2019, he accounted for 47.43% of the team’s receiving yards, which is just an insane market share. Therefore, his main strength is that he demonstrated that he could dominate a receiver corps, even if it was only for one season and only at the college level.
Outside of his statistical profile, Atwell’s other main strength is his speed and quickness. His 40-yard dash time of 4.39 seconds was solid, and his extremely fast 10-yard split shows he can be explosive on short routes. Hopefully, he’ll bring that explosiveness and speed to the NFL game to make up for his smaller size. He also comes into the NFL at only 21 years old, so he has time to develop and improve his game. Dynasty managers are typically more patient with a younger player, so that’s a nice checkbox in Atwell’s favor.
Weaknesses
I think it’s clear that Atwell’s size is his main weakness. He’s short, skinny, and has a tiny wingspan, along with small hands. He also performed poorly in the broad and vertical jumps, although that’s likely because of his size.
But outside of his measurables, Atwell also has some concerns within his statistical profile, mostly with his 2020 season. He broke onto the scene in 2018 before progressing in 2019, but he seemed to move backward in 2020. He only played nine of 11 games in 2020 because he got hurt and then opted out, but his per-game performance was also far worse. He put up fewer than half the yards of his stellar 2019 season in only four fewer games.
I think dynasty managers and the NFL would be more willing to look past Atwell’s size if he had a perfect statistical profile. I’m not sure how much the COVID-19 pandemic affected his 2020 season, but he likely would’ve been a first-round NFL Draft pick if he had duplicated his 2019 statistics in a typical year. Unfortunately, he wasn’t, and dynasty managers mostly believe that the Rams overpaid for Atwell.
Oddly enough, the very fact that he’s an unpopular player is a weakness for Atwell value-wise. Even if he succeeds over a small sample size, dynasty managers will be slow to accept Atwell as a real asset. He will likely need to produce significant numbers over a more extended period before the dynasty community reverses their view and grants him a high dynasty value.
Opportunities
Atwell’s opportunities seem limited. The Rams spent a second-rounder on him, but he joins an extremely crowded depth chart. They recently extended Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on long-term deals, and they also drafted Van Jefferson in the second round last season. They also signed DeSean Jackson in free agency, who has some overlapping skills with Atwell. The Rams don’t even have an easy out on Woods’ or Kupp’s deals until after 2022, so I truly don’t understand their planning at wide receiver. Atwell’s main opportunity is that he plays with a solid quarterback in Matthew Stafford.
Threats
I think I mostly covered Atwell’s threats. Woods, Kupp, and Jefferson represent significant threats to his production, and all of them will be around for the next two seasons. Atwell’s tiny size is also a major threat to his potential NFL success. His path to becoming fantasy-relevant is exceptionally narrow because the entire deck is stacked against him.
Short-Term Expectations
My short-term expectations for Atwell essentially don’t exist. Even with Stafford at quarterback, he is at best the third receiving weapon behind Kupp and Woods. I think that Tyler Higbee will also see some targets, and there’s no reason why Jefferson will sit behind Atwell, given his prior year of experience. Anyone who believes Atwell will provide even a shred of fantasy value in 2021 needs to adjust their thinking. If he flashes any of his explosive talents and shows upside for the future, his rookie year would be a success.
Long-Term Expectations
In the long-term, though, Atwell does have a path to success. The Rams could decide to move on from Kupp or Woods after 2021. If Atwell establishes himself in the offense, he could find some opportunities in 2022 and beyond. But I would bet against Atwell ever finding a fantasy-relevant role.
He reminds me a lot of KJ Hamler, a second-round pick from 2020. Hamler flashed some talent in his rookie year, but he’s more of a real-life contributor than a fantasy asset. Atwell is one of those players where I’ll need to see fantasy relevance happen on the NFL field before I can believe that it will occur.
NFL Player Comparison
Let’s be honest here; there is no valid comparison for Atwell. He is smaller than almost any other player in NFL history, let alone a successful wide receiver. If he succeeds, he would be the first to do so at his size. I won’t lie and make up a comparison for Atwell that doesn’t exist, and that’s my honest viewpoint on this matter.
Projected Rookie Draft Range
Atwell was the 31st player selected in May’s 1QB DLF rookie ADP, making him a mid-third-round rookie pick. At that point in rookie drafts, I consider him a value. I have him at 28th overall, pretty much solely based on his second-round NFL Draft capital in my personal rankings. I just can’t let such a highly drafted player fall any further in rookie drafts, especially in this year’s weaker class.
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