A View from the 1.08: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just mere hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this 12-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, we’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12-team PPR, one-QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.08
The Pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR
Waddle started off his 2020 campaign strong and was on his way to a 1,000-yard season, but an ankle injury derailed that in the blink of an eye. Coming off the board at WR4 is great value for a player who could be a perennial 1,000-yard receiver in the NFL.
Possible Pivots
If a WR run happens in your league, players like Javonte Williams and Rondale Moore could become available to you. Both have some size concerns, but ultimately will be solid fantasy producers for your team. Kyle Pitts or Trevor Lawrence could also be there for those teams who need a quarterback or tight end.
Trade Value
- 1.08 and David Montgomery for 1.11 and DJ Moore
- 1.08 for Melvin Gordon and 1.11
- 1.08 and 2.13 for 1.02 and 3.01
Superflex Option: Kyle Pitts, TE
The tight end out of Florida has everyone gushing over the potential to be an instant impact at the TE from a fantasy perspective. There is data to suggest first-round tight ends have a lower success rate. Landing spot will be key, but the ability to produce early could provide instant value for the 1.08.
2.08
The Pick: Zach Wilson, QB
The quarterback from BYU wowed everyone with his off-platform throws, his impressive arm strength, and his ‘play anytime, anywhere’ bandana. He also wowed everyone with his flick of the wrist throw at his pro day. Can he be the savior of the New York Jets franchise? I guess we will find out soon. Choosing Wilson here towards the end of the second round is a safe place to take a potential franchise QB or just a throw-in for fantasy deals for the next decade.
Potential Pivots
If you’re good at the quarterback position, you could go for Dyami Brown out of North Carolina or Trey Sermon from Ohio State. Both provide good flex value for fantasy teams but will probably struggle to produce consistent value each week.
Trade Value
- 2.08, 2.07 and 2022 first for James Robinson
- 2.08 and 1.08 for Brandon Aiyuk
- 2.08 and 4.02 for Antonio Gandy-Golden, Mo Alie-Cox and Cole Kmet
Superflex Option: Tylan Wallace, WR
Wallace returned from a torn ACL to put together a solid senior season for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. At the 2.08, he has the necessary skills for a successful career in the NFL, and one that also benefits fantasy teams who get to draft him at this slot.
3.08
The Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The big back from Oklahoma returned from a four-game suspension to help provide some stability to a young Oklahoma Sooner backfield. He has good feet in the pile and is tough to bring down, but will that translate to the next level? Getting him here as we turn toward the end of the draft could be a steal or bench clutter.
Potential Pivots
Tamorrion Terry here feels like an extreme value pick. He does have some off-the-field issues, and he measured in smaller than listed. However, he is super talented, and could be the late-round steal who can help you down the playoff stretch. Elijah Mitchell is also a good play as well if you wanted a pass-catching back option.
Trade Value
- 3.08 for Donovan People-Jones
- 3.08 for Jordan Love and 3.12
- 3.08 for Gerald Everett
Superflex option: Tutu Atwell, WR
The speedy wideout out of Louisville should be a fun player to watch in the NFL. His size is definitely a concern, but his ability to run away from the defense will make us gravitate to him as an option on our rosters late in the third round.
4.08
The Pick: Sage Surratt, WR
The Wake Forest wide receiver opted out of the 2020 season like many others. Surratt is good at high-pointing the ball, but concerns about his speed drop him into the fourth round. Look for him to go day three and find a location where we can see value in choosing him at this pick.
Potential Pivots
Hunter Long is an NFL-ready TE who would be of great value here in the middle to end of the fourth round. Pooka Williams Jr. of Kansas is also an option, but his role is unknown at the next level given his smaller stature.
Trade Value
- 4.08 and 2022 fourth for Boston Scott
- 4.08 for $40 of FAAB
- 4.08 for 5.09
Superflex Option: Demetric Felton, RB/WR
Felton had a solid senior campaign at UCLA and would be a decent option here in the mid-fourth. His position at the next level is a question mark. He should be able to line up in the slot and see touches in the backfield as well.
