A View from the 1.07: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now just mere hours away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this 12-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, we’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12-team PPR, one-QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.07
The Pick: DeVonta Smith, WR
The senior wideout capped his college career with a historically great season. He helped lead the Crimson Tide to another national title and won the Heisman Trophy, becoming the first WR to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991. Smith is a mid-first-round rookie selection even with concerns around his slim frame.
Possible Pivots
This could be a location where Rashod Bateman is also considered if a running back run (Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams) does happen. If Williams or Etienne were to fall to here, either player would also be a solid pick at the 1.07. The drop to the next tier of running backs is big.
Trade Value
- 1.07 for Justin Herbert
- 1.07 for Deebo Samuel and 2022 second
- 1.07 and 2.11 for Joe Burrow
Superflex Option: Trey Lance, QB
The junior quarterback out of North Dakota State has the arm talent and rushing skills to be an absolute bargain here at the 1.07. He may sit for his rookie year depending on where he is drafted, but Lance has the potential to be a top dynasty quarterback option in the next few years.
2.07
The Pick: Tylan Wallace, WR
The senior wideout came back to Stillwater after a torn ACL in 2019 derailed his junior season. Wallace had a successful senior campaign in the shortened 2020 season, alleviating concerns about his repaired knee. His ability to be a solid fantasy producer in the middle of the second round could be a bargain for those who scoop him at this spot.
Possible Pivots
If you’re in need of a running back, you could consider Trey Sermon of Ohio State or Jermar Jefferson from Oregon State. Both have the upside to be solid fantasy contributors, but both will likely be in committee backfields at the next level. If you want to go quarterback, Zach Wilson of BYU is the best available. He had a very productive season and will likely be off the board early in the NFL draft.
Trade Value
- 2.07 for Deebo Samuel
- 2.07, DJ Moore and JuJu Smith-Schuster for Russell Wilson (superflex)
Superflex Option: Kyle Trask, QB
The senior quarterback from Florida is a solid option at the 2.07. Trask led the Gators to an 8-4 record and an invite to the Cotton Bowl. He has the potential to be a solid starting QB, but his fantasy projection is predicated on his landing spot.
3.07
The Pick: D’Wayne Eskridge, WR
The fifth-year Western Michigan wideout jumped onto the draft radar with a nice covid shortened season returning from an injury in 2019. Eskridge’s home-run speed makes him a great pick here in the third round, but he’s available here because those opportunities will be consistent at the next level.
Possible Pivots
If you’ve drafted wideouts in the first two rounds, Rhamondre Stevenson is your best running back option. Nico Collins out of Michigan is a wideout option if you prefer to draft taller wide receivers.
Trade Value
- 3.07, Steven Sims and 2022 second for DJ Chark and 4.02
- 3.07, 3.12 and Adam Thielen for Deebo Samuel
- 3.07, 3.06 and Donald Parham for 3.10, Jamaal Williams and OJ Howard
Superflex Option: Tutu Atwell, WR
The 5’9″ wideout produced well in the ACC. If Atwell didn’t weigh in at 146 pounds, he would be taken much higher in the draft because he is electric with the football in his hands.
4.07
The Pick: Hunter Long, TE
The Boston College tight end had himself a solid senior season and should look forward to hearing his name on day three of the NFL Draft. He’s not an elite athlete like Kyle Pitts but Long is NFL-ready and would provide value here in the fourth round.
Possible Pivots
If you’re in need of wideout depth, North Texas wide receiver Jaelon Darden is more than likely available. Kyle Trask is also an option as well if you need quarterback depth. Both have upside, but will probably be taxi stashes for fantasy teams in 2021.
Trade Value
- 4.07 and Odell Beckham Jr for Bryan Edwards and 2.02
- 4.07 and 3.10 for 3.07
- 4.07, 4.06 and 2.01 for 1.11
Superflex Option Anthony Schwartz, WR
Track and field star Schwartz was a favorite deep ball target of Bo Nix. Expect him to be the same for whatever team drafts him, and to utilize his speed to break the lid on the secondaries. His risk-reward here in the fourth round is solid, but Schwartz may end up a better best-ball pick over dynasty selection.
