2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Kylin Hill, RB Mississippi State

Kylin Hill

Jeremy Schwob Posted On April 22, 2021

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft Prospect Kylin Hill, RB from Mississippi State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!

Kylin Hill is an intriguing prospect out of the SEC but is flying under the radar as he heads into the 2021 NFL Draft. While he didn’t maintain consistent production throughout his career at Mississippi State, he has intriguing size for a back who has dependable receiving production.

Does he have a chance to be a hit with a decent landing spot in the draft? We’ll dive into his game and evaluate what his potential could look like.

THE STATS

Statistics from Sports Reference.

When looking at Hill’s production, he has one season that sticks out from the rest. In 2019, Hill’s junior season, he led the SEC in rushing attempts (242) displaying his ability to carry a sizeable workload. That year in the SEC, he was also third in rushing yards (1,350) and fifth in yards from scrimmage (1,530).

While those are all impressive, there is hesitation to the rest of Hill’s production profile. He did not eclipse 1,000 yards rushing or from scrimmage any of his other three seasons. There should be an asterisk next to the 2020 season as he was limited to just three games, prior to opting out of the remainder of the season with intentions of beginning to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft.

Maybe most intriguing is his receiving ability out of the backfield – he had 67 receptions. He had seasons of 22 (2018), 18 (2019), and then an astounding 23 receptions in just three games (2020) before opting out.

Via DLF’s College Market Share App.

Hill’s rushing yards by age follow the trajectory of a single spike season. However, mapping Hill’s Market Share receiving yards tells a bit more optimistic tale of production stability.

THE FILM

I began with a video of his highlights from his breakout 2019 season. These are certainly the “high” in highlights, but they still display areas where Hill has some deficiencies.

Hill has a solid overall game but shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a big-play threat. While he has adequate speed, he doesn’t often beat defenders in the open field or frequently make them miss. What Hill does possess is strong contact balance (per The Draft Network) as he often fights through tackles for extra yardage. Especially between the tackles and in short-yardage situations, he almost always gains the necessary yardage and falls forward. Per Pro Football Network, Hill also displays good patience and good burst after his blocks develop.

He also possesses nice versatility with an ability to align at numerous spots in the formation and be effective in those positions. This is exhibited by his consistent production catching the ball out of the backfield paired with his fluidity catching the ball. In addition to his production in the passing game, he is very strong in pass protection with an innate ability to pick up the blitz.

While he may be best suited to be drafted into an offense based in a zone-blocking scheme, his versatility again would provide him a chance to be successful in a variety of offenses.

THE MEASURABLES

Mississippi State listed Hill at 5’11, 215, and presented almost identically to that at the Bulldogs’ Pro Day. This is fairly ideal size for a back to carry the ball between the tackles, while also being utilized in the passing game. Somewhat disappointingly, Hill ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, which is certainly acceptable – depending on how you want to adjust based on Pro Day timing.

His size and 40-time are similar to that of Dalvin Cook and Cam Akers. Let me emphasize, those are not player comparisons for who Hill is as a player. Rather, these are simply three data points (i.e., height, weight, 40-time) of similarity to develop a picture of what Hill looks like. However, Hill’s SPARQ rating of 114.0 is fairly middle of the pack athletically.

His short-area agility to make defenders miss and long speed to break away for huge gains is nowhere near that of Cook or Akers. A more realistically comparable player for Hill may be Mike Davis (per PFF Fantasy Football) due to his similar size and running style allowing for their shared ability to break tackles.

Kylin Hill comps to Mike Davis 👀

Strong at breaking tackles 😤 pic.twitter.com/NK36XJx7qy

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 3, 2021

DYNASTY VALUE

Hill has comfortably slotted into the third round of rookie drafts with a DLF Consensus Rookie Ranking of 30 overall (1QB format). He is currently in the company of Michael Carter and Chuba Hubbard in front of him with Jemar Jefferson and Rhamondre Stevenson following as he settles in at RB8. He is ranked as high as 22 overall in these rankings, which might be the earliest you would have to target him in any rookie drafts prior to the NFL Draft.

Landing spot and draft capital will be incredibly important for Hill’s dynasty value. Selection to a backfield without a three-down back who is involved in the passing game would be beneficial for Hill. One with more of a committee approach where Hill can establish a day one role in the passing game with opportunity for more with injuries on the depth chart would be ideal in my estimation (Tampa Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, or Atlanta would be intriguing).

If he is selected within his expected day two range in the NFL Draft, it could propel Hill up into the early or mid-second round of dynasty rookie drafts. A selection in early day three would likely have Hill remain in the third round of drafts.

CONCLUSION

Kylin Hill was gaining a lot of attention heading into the 2020 NFL Draft following his breakout season but opted to return to Mississippi State for his senior season. This likely resulted in a hit to his draft stock, though he regained some attention following a strong performance at the Senior Bowl. This relative drop in his stock due to an abbreviated 2020 season may provide a nice opportunity in dynasty.

It may be wishful thinking to hope for 2019 Hill to fully emerge onto the NFL scene, though his stable production in the passing game could be where he finds a role in an offense. At his size, Hill could handle more work and expand upon that initial role. If he were able to regain his 2019 form, he could be an overshadowed pick that could provide an inexpensive upside in a running back class that is not incredibly deep.

Author
Recent Posts

Jeremy Schwob

Jeremy is a doctoral student in clinical psychology at Penn State. He is an avid fan of St. Louis sports and the Dayton Flyers. You can find him advocating for wide receivers and pushing that value is misused as fact on Twitter.