Dynasty Battle: Corey Davis vs Denzel Mims
One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when there are two similarly valued players on the same team at the same position. Often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to look at a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. If you’re interested in my previous entries in this series, I provided the links at the bottom of this article.
Now, I want to look at the New York Jets’ receiver duo, free-agent signing Corey Davis and 2020 second-rounder Denzel Mims. The two players both have dynasty hype, and they’re relatively close in value. The Jets were recently in the news, as they traded Sam Darnold to the Panthers, opening the door for them to select Zach Wilson with the second overall pick. Therefore, it’s a perfect time to break down whether Davis or Mims will perform better in the Jets’ 2021 offense.
Let’s jump in!
Corey Davis
We all know Davis’ NFL story. The Titans drafted him with the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, making him a hot commodity in that year’s dynasty rookie drafts.
Looking at that first round of DLF’s May 2017 Rookie ADP, dynasty managers who selected Davis are likely kicking themselves. Stud players like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara were available behind him, along with solid assets in Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Unfortunately, Davis struggled in his career with the Titans.
In 2017, he had various injuries, limiting his effectiveness in his rookie season. However, he slightly rebounded in 2018, where he served as the Titans’ clear number one receiver. However, Marcus Mariota failed to support any significant receiving weapons, and Davis only finished as the WR28, averaging only 11.47 PPR points per game.
Then in 2019, his floor collapsed out from under him. The Titans selected AJ Brown in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and he quickly overtook Davis in the offense. Once the Titans switched from Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, Brown blossomed into a fantasy stud, while Davis became irrelevant. He plummeted to only 7.67 PPR points per game, finishing as the WR64.
But in 2020, Davis had a bounce-back season. The Titans failed to add any significant weapons to their core of Brown, Davis, and tight end Jonnu Smith, leaving room for him to succeed in the offense. He tied his career-high in receptions, and he set new high-water marks in receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy PPG. Most impressively, he recorded excellent efficiency metrics in 2020, averaging 2.1 PPR points per opportunity.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History app.
As you can see, Davis has become more efficient throughout his career, improving his points per opportunity each season. I believe that the Jets saw this trend of improved efficiency when they decided to sign him to a three-year, $37.5 million contract with $27 million guaranteed.
Denzel Mims
Unlike Davis, Mims has little of a track record in the NFL. Therefore, it’s essential to look at his college production to paint a complete picture of his profile.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Mims did little to nothing as a freshman in 2016 before breaking out as a sophomore in 2017, dominating Baylor’s relatively barren receiving corps. However, he lost market share to transfer Jalen Hurd in 2018, who became a third-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. But in 2019, Mims returned to the lead role, scoring an impressive 12 receiving touchdowns. I wasn’t particularly high on him coming into the NFL, though, mostly because he was a late-declare prospect without that truly dominant college season.
The Jets decided to select Mims in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft with the 59th overall pick. He was the 13th receiver chosen, far lower than most of the dynasty community expected. Less-hyped players like KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, and Van Jefferson went ahead of him in a somewhat stunning development. Even so, Mims retained his value in DLF’s May 2020 rookie mock data.
He carried more value than multiple players who went ahead of him, including Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, and Laviska Shenault. Unfortunately, Mims failed to deliver on this value during his rookie season.
He delivered a miserable 23 receptions for 357 yards and zero touchdowns in an injury-riddled nine games. Considering that many rookie receivers selected far later had terrific rookie seasons, there’s no way to describe his rookie year other than a major disappointment. He did deal with injuries, Adam Gase’s abysmal coaching, and Sam Darnold’s mediocre play, but those excuses cannot explain away all of his struggles.
The Future
Davis and Mims have a similar future. Both players are under contract with the Jets through 2023, although the Jets can escape Davis’ contract after the 2022 season. Mims’ rookie deal is extraordinarily cheap, so I expect him to be with the Jets through 2023. Every NFL mock draft has the Jets taking Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in this year’s draft, meaning that Wilson will throw passes to Davis and Mims for at least the next two seasons.
Right now, the Jets also have slot receiver Jamison Crowder and depth player Keelan Cole on the roster, along with disappointing tight end Chris Herndon. The Jets can release Crowder right now and save over $10 million against the cap, which I expect them to do if they acquire a significant receiver in the NFL Draft. They could also be in play for a rookie tight end, although they likely have no path to select star rookie Kyle Pitts. Therefore, Davis and Mims will probably be the Jets’ top two receiving targets entering the 2021 season.
Dynasty Value Comparison
The best way to compare two players’ dynasty values is the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
According to the analyzer, Mims currently holds more trade value, although the two players carry almost precisely the same dynasty rank. Davis now ranks at 81.67 and Mims at 81.83, so they are back-to-back for our dynasty rankers. Mims comes in 14 spots ahead in ADP value, but those values come from March’s ADP data before Davis signed with the Jets.
At that point, Mims was the Jets’ nominal WR1, while Davis had significant uncertainty surrounding his situation. April’s mock drafts are still in progress, but I expect the two players to come in far closer to each other than beforehand. Additionally, both players might experience a slight boost now that Darnold is gone, and they will undoubtedly have Zach Wilson as their quarterback. Wilson might be a controversial prospect, but most of the dynasty community sees him as an upgrade over Darnold.
Conclusion
Essentially, the dynasty debate between Davis and Mims comes down to a single central factor, which is who will be the Jets’ top target in 2021. Both players will be on the Jets for the foreseeable future. Therefore, even though Mims is about two years younger, I’m more concerned about their fantasy production while sharing the same field.
I believe that the analyzer, ADP, and rankings values are about correct, as Davis and Mims rank around that exact spot in my personal rankings, right around 90th overall in 1QB leagues. But given Davis’ 2020 efficiency leap, I give him a relatively significant edge for production in the Jets’ offense. They are still close for me, but it’s hard for me to rank Mims above Davis, given that Mims hasn’t shown much of anything in the NFL to demonstrate that he will succeed. For now, I’ll lean toward the proven veteran Davis over the unproven younger Mims.
Previous Entries: Courtland Sutton vs Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs Leonard Fournette
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
