2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Trevor Lawrence, QB from Clemson. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!
We are going to see at least five quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year’s draft. Without a shadow of a doubt, Trevor Lawrence is going to be the first player selected. Many people are labeling him as a generational prospect and the best quarterback to come out of college since Peyton Manning.
Quarterback is the toughest position to play in sports. Very few prospects go on to have a successful career in the NFL. Lawrence appears to be a lock to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league early in his career.
THE STATS
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Lawrence started his career at Clemson looking like the quarterback prodigy everyone expected him to be. He led the team to the College Football Championship, beating Alabama 44-16. In that game, he passed for 347 yards and three touchdowns. One thing to note is that he didn’t throw an interception in his final five games of the season.
His sophomore season began with him tossing five interceptions in his first three games. The ship quickly turned around as he continued the lead the Tigers to an undefeated season that led to them losing in the College Football Championship game to Joe Burrow and LSU, 42-25.
He played in ten games during his junior year, sitting out of two games due to testing positive for Covid-19. Nonetheless, it was another good year for Lawrence as he averaged 315 passing yards per game. We also saw him increase his completion percentage to 69.2 percent and his yards per attempt to 9.4. According to Pro Football Focus, he had a 77.3 percent adjusted completion percentage on the season. Lawrence also recorded a 113.4 quarterback rating on passes that went for 20 yards or more.
THE FILM
The above video is a highlight montage with clips of the best plays from his entire career at Clemson. Looking at his best plays from a macro standpoint provides a good look at why Lawrence is considered a generational quarterback.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1167111995025436674?s=20
There really isn’t anything he can’t do. He has a strong arm and can connect with receivers all over the football field. His mental processing is quick and sharp, which was the main reason why he didn’t make many mistakes during his collegiate career. Lawrence’s pocket awareness is underrated. He has a good feel for what’s going on around him and knows when to move up in the pocket or scramble when things get dicey.
What can't Trevor Lawrence do?
Highest rushing grade among power five QBs over the last two seasons (84.7)💨pic.twitter.com/BxJuP797lb
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 10, 2021
We all know he’s not the next Mike Vick, but he does have the mobility to pick up yards on the ground when given the opportunity. The added rushing production will cement his floor in fantasy. He averaged 23.58 rushing yards per game during this three-year stint at Clemson.
We shouldn’t consider him a dual-threat quarterback, but the possibility of him taking off and running a few times per game will add to his fantasy production.
THE MEASURABLES
At his pro day, Lawrence measured in at 6-foot-5 and weighed in at 213 pounds. He also recorded ten-inch hands. As we already know from watching the tape, he has the requisite size to compete at the NFL level. At his height, there will be no issue with batted balls at the line of scrimmage due to his height. He won’t need to worry about altering his arm angles to complete standard passes.
Fun fact. Waiting on #Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence measurements. Expected to have a height of 6’6. Only 1 QB drafted w similar comps has winning record. Joe Flacco. Why is Lawrence considered different? Speed. Athleticism. No 40 time today but one team said they expect it at 4.65
— Jane Slater (@SlaterNFL) February 12, 2021
Lawrence didn’t run the 40-yard dash at his pro day. He didn’t need to since he’s a top-shelf quarterback prospect who has showcased enough mobility on tape. However, from the Tweet posted above, there was an NFL team who projected him to run a 4.65-second 40-yard dash. The accuracy of this number is debatable, but we know from the film that he has more than enough speed to pull away in the open field if he’s given enough daylight to tuck the ball and run.
DYNASTY VALUE
According to DLF’s March Rookie ADP, Lawrence is being selected in the middle portion of 1QB rookie drafts with a 7.60 average draft position. He might be the safest investment in the first round since the odds of him busting are almost nonexistent. On the contrary, the opportunity cost of passing up on the mid-tier wide receivers could become costly.
It’s no surprise that he’s the 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts. There’s no way he’s going to drop in value between now and the time rookie drafts start. We know he’s going to be the first overall pick in the draft and will be the franchise quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
He is being drafted as the QB8 in startup drafts with an 89.67 average draft position. On average, he is being drafted a few spots ahead of Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow. If he performs well out of the gate during his rookie season, then we will see a significant increase in his dynasty value.
Lawrence is being selected at the end of the first round in superflex startup drafts. Since he’s a young talented prospect with a lot of promise, he is very valuable in this format. Dynasty gamers who select him in 2QB and superflex leagues should expect to have him on their rosters for a very long time.
CONCLUSION
This is year’s draft presents a very talented batch of quarterbacks. Lawrence is, of course, leading the charge as the top prospect. He might be the safest option we’ve seen at the position in a very long time. Considering his player profile is almost flawless, he’s going to be a coveted player in rookie drafts. Even in 1QB leagues, he will hold value, because he will be a dependable long-term asset.
