2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Mac Jones, QB Alabama
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Mac Jones, QB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!
In 2021, Mac Jones had a historic college season, leading the Alabama Crimson Tide to a national championship. The speculation is that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is looking at him potentially with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Let’s dig into Jones’ profile and see what makes him a potential top selection.
THE STATS
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
The three-star prospect (via 24/7 Sports) out of Jacksonville sat behind 2020 draft picks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts for most of his freshman year.
In his sophomore campaign, Jones came on in relief of the fifth overall selection of 2020 after Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle injury and then completed the season when Tua suffered a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State.
It was in Jones’ junior season though, where he rose from the second option to college sensation. He led the NCAA in passing yards, completion percentage, average yards per completion, along with many other passing statistics.
It did help he was surrounded by potentially three first-round selections in the 2021 draft: Najee Harris at RB, wideout Jaylen Waddle, and Heisman Award-winning receiver DeVonta Smith.
Graph courtesy of DLF College Market share app.
You can see here the rise in passing yards in comparison to a similar college season: Joe Burrow’s historic 2020 LSU campaign. Burrow threw for more touchdowns and passing yards than Jones, but you can see the kind of sharp rise in stats and understand why so many are bullish on Jones in the NFL.
THE FILM
Quarterbacks are notoriously difficult to project into the NFL, but I wanted to mention a few things I liked about Jones in his Rose Bowl appearance this year.
First, his ability to move within the pocket. Jones does not possess the kind of mobility that others in this draft class have. However, he does have the ability to move up in the pocket or slide away from pressure and make the throw. This is an important thing for him to be able to do when he gets to the next level since he will not be able to run away from defenders.
Second, he throws the ball downfield with good velocity and touch. He also threw his receivers into gaps in the defense. This allowed his talented teammates to thrive in space. He moved the ball around the field and did so effectively.
If there’s a weakness Jones will need to work on, it’s that he does fade away from some throws. This is something that can be worked on at the next level, but certainly something that could inflate turnover numbers as the competition intensifies for him.
THE MEASURABLES
Numbers from Alabama QB Mac Jones' pro day submitted to the league:
Height: 6-2 5/8
Weight: 217
40-yard dash: 4.72, 4.68
Vertical jump: 32 inches
Broad jump: 9 feet, 8 inches
Shuttle: 4.39
3-cone: 7.04— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 23, 2021
Jones is an average-sized QB with surprisingly good speed and explosiveness. At that height and measurement, he is comparable to Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan (which is why many people compare him to those QBs). With a 40-yard dash time in the 4.7-second range, he is actually as quick as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, so while he doesn’t play at that speed, he has enough to pick up a few yards potentially on third down if needed.
DYNASTY VALUE
When looking at the March 2021 Rookie Dynasty ADP on DLF, Jones is comfortably in the QB5 position behind Trey Lance and over 15 spots ahead of QB6 Kyle Trask. This is probably the correct position for him in this draft that has five fantasy-relevant QBs.
I don’t think he would leapfrog over Lance or Zach Wilson even if San Francisco take him with the third overall pick. Taking him in the late second round of rookie drafts – where he is currently slotted – is a little high for me in 1QB leagues, as he does not project to be a top-ten QB in fantasy.
I would be happier to see him in the early third round of rookie drafts if possible, but a high draft selection will probably not let that happen. If I’m in superflex leagues, I would expect him to go as early as 1.08 in QB-needy leagues to around 2.02.
CONCLUSION
Jones has the ability to step in right away and provide leadership and production for any NFL team. He reminds me of a more mobile Philip Rivers with his willingness to push the ball downfield, his slightly unique windup, and his ability to slide away from incoming edge rushers while still making a good throw to his positional talent.
He may not be the speed to burn past the first and second level like some of his draft peers, but Jones will be a solid QB2 on many fantasy rosters for the next eight to ten years on our fantasy squads.
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Mac Jones, QB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!
In 2021, Mac Jones had a historic college season, leading the Alabama Crimson Tide to a national championship. The speculation is that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is looking at him potentially with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Let’s dig into Jones’ profile and see what makes him a potential top selection.
THE STATS
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
The three-star prospect (via 24/7 Sports) out of Jacksonville sat behind 2020 draft picks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts for most of his freshman year.
In his sophomore campaign, Jones came on in relief of the fifth overall selection of 2020 after Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle injury and then completed the season when Tua suffered a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State.
It was in Jones’ junior season though, where he rose from the second option to college sensation. He led the NCAA in passing yards, completion percentage, average yards per completion, along with many other passing statistics.
It did help he was surrounded by potentially three first-round selections in the 2021 draft: Najee Harris at RB, wideout Jaylen Waddle, and Heisman Award-winning receiver DeVonta Smith.
Graph courtesy of DLF College Market share app.
You can see here the rise in passing yards in comparison to a similar college season: Joe Burrow’s historic 2020 LSU campaign. Burrow threw for more touchdowns and passing yards than Jones, but you can see the kind of sharp rise in stats and understand why so many are bullish on Jones in the NFL.
THE FILM
Quarterbacks are notoriously difficult to project into the NFL, but I wanted to mention a few things I liked about Jones in his Rose Bowl appearance this year.
First, his ability to move within the pocket. Jones does not possess the kind of mobility that others in this draft class have. However, he does have the ability to move up in the pocket or slide away from pressure and make the throw. This is an important thing for him to be able to do when he gets to the next level since he will not be able to run away from defenders.
Second, he throws the ball downfield with good velocity and touch. He also threw his receivers into gaps in the defense. This allowed his talented teammates to thrive in space. He moved the ball around the field and did so effectively.
If there’s a weakness Jones will need to work on, it’s that he does fade away from some throws. This is something that can be worked on at the next level, but certainly something that could inflate turnover numbers as the competition intensifies for him.
THE MEASURABLES
Numbers from Alabama QB Mac Jones' pro day submitted to the league:
Height: 6-2 5/8
Weight: 217
40-yard dash: 4.72, 4.68
Vertical jump: 32 inches
Broad jump: 9 feet, 8 inches
Shuttle: 4.39
3-cone: 7.04— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 23, 2021
Jones is an average-sized QB with surprisingly good speed and explosiveness. At that height and measurement, he is comparable to Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan (which is why many people compare him to those QBs). With a 40-yard dash time in the 4.7-second range, he is actually as quick as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, so while he doesn’t play at that speed, he has enough to pick up a few yards potentially on third down if needed.
DYNASTY VALUE
When looking at the March 2021 Rookie Dynasty ADP on DLF, Jones is comfortably in the QB5 position behind Trey Lance and over 15 spots ahead of QB6 Kyle Trask. This is probably the correct position for him in this draft that has five fantasy-relevant QBs.
I don’t think he would leapfrog over Lance or Zach Wilson even if San Francisco take him with the third overall pick. Taking him in the late second round of rookie drafts – where he is currently slotted – is a little high for me in 1QB leagues, as he does not project to be a top-ten QB in fantasy.
I would be happier to see him in the early third round of rookie drafts if possible, but a high draft selection will probably not let that happen. If I’m in superflex leagues, I would expect him to go as early as 1.08 in QB-needy leagues to around 2.02.
CONCLUSION
Jones has the ability to step in right away and provide leadership and production for any NFL team. He reminds me of a more mobile Philip Rivers with his willingness to push the ball downfield, his slightly unique windup, and his ability to slide away from incoming edge rushers while still making a good throw to his positional talent.
He may not be the speed to burn past the first and second level like some of his draft peers, but Jones will be a solid QB2 on many fantasy rosters for the next eight to ten years on our fantasy squads.
