Get Out While You Still Can: Running Backs to Sell

If you’ve played fantasy football – especially in dynasty leagues – for some time, you know the value of a young, high-volume, three-down running back. But as we’ve seen in recent years with players like Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell, the age cliff comes quick, and as a result, high-end running backs rapidly lose their value. The delicate balancing act when deciding to keep or move on from a running back can make or break your dynasty rosters.

I started by looking at current NFL depth charts on ourlads.com. Then found players ages as of NFL week one. Then I found the contracts of each teams’ top two or three running backs on spotrac.com to see who might be on the way out sooner rather than later. When players were identified as trade-now options, I looked at the DLF Trade Finder to see what kind of haul dynasty owners might be able to expect in return.

Aging Out

Without going into great detail, the running back age cliff seems to be around 28 years old. Feel free to google the multiple articles on the topic, but it looks like most running backs peak by their age 26-season with a drop-off at age 28, then an even more significant drop-off at age 30. On opening weekend, we’ll see 17 deep-league-usable running backs who will be 26 years old. And there will be another 19 backs who will be 27 or older. You’re probably going to want to start moving away from these players while they carry some value, and you can still get a decent return in a trade. Unless you are 100% going to be in the hunt for a championship, it’s always better to get out a year or two early than a year or two late.

Fantasy-Relevant 26-year-Olds

The 26-year-old RB group is an impressive list. Unless you’re getting a monster return, almost all of the below players should return value at their current ADPs. But, given what we know about the age cliff, if your season is going south by week six, it’s probably an ideal time to ship most of these players off to win-now teams and accumulate younger players and draft picks. If you’re looking at a one-to-two-year win-now window yourself, you might be able to ride a few of these guys to playoff glory, but be aware that the window is slowly closing.

• Matt Breida, RB BUF
• Sony Michel, RB NE
• Gus Edwards, RB BAL
• Kareem Hunt, RB CLE
• Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
• Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
• Tarik Cohen, RB CHI
• Aaron Jones, RB GB
• Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
• Leonard Fournette, RB TB
• Alvin Kamara, RB NO
• Chris Carson, RB SEA

Older Fantasy-Relevant Running Backs

The age cliff is already on display, as we see several names below who absolutely held significantly more value only a year or two ago. I’d probably dump every single one of these players while I still could. Either flip them ahead of the upcoming draft or wait until they have a big game in-season and try to sell high ASAP.

• James White, RB NE
• Tevin Coleman, RB NYJ
• Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
• David Johnson, RB HOU
• Mark Ingram, RB HOU
• Phillip Lindsay, RB HOU
• Derrick Henry, RB TEN
• Kenyan Drake, RB LVR
• Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
• JD McKissic, RB WAS
• Latavius Murray, RB NO
• Mike Davis, RB ATL
• Raheem Mostert, RB SF

Impact of Contracts

The biggest impact of the coronavirus on the NFL is arguably the lowered salary cap in 2021. With players entering free agency not able to cash in as expected, we saw an unusually high number of players sign one-year deals hoping to cash in next year when the cap is expected to increase once again. When looking at contracts, players fell into three categories:

• Players unlikely to be affected by their contract.
• Players in the final year of their deal.
• Players who may be cap casualties in the future.

One Year Remaining

This is significant because we have no idea where these players will land a year from now and what their role with their new team will be – assuming they even have a job in 2022. Nick Chubb is the only player below who will undoubtedly get a big contract ahead of 2022. Aside from Leonard Fournette and Chubb, I don’t think anyone else on the below list is guaranteed to be in the NFL next year.

• Matt Breida, RB BUF
• James White, RB NE
• Tevin Coleman, RB NYJ
• Gus Edwards, RB BAL
• Nick Chubb, RB CLE
• David Johnson, RB HOU
• Mark Ingram, RB HOU
• Phillip Lindsay, RB HOU
• Nyheim Hines, RB IND
• Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
• Royce Freeman, RB DEN
• JD McKissic, RB WAS
• Leonard Fournette, RB TB
• Jeff Wilson Jr, RB SF
• Raheem Mostert, RB SF
• Chase Edmonds, RB AZ

Upcoming Contract Conundrums

A few players have outs built into their contracts, and their current teams might be forced to move on due to salary cap constraints. Again, who knows what kind of jobs might be awaiting these players as we move ahead. As a savvy dynasty owner, sometimes you need to be thinking years in advance to gain an edge over your league-mates.

Sony Michel, RB NE

Michel will be due $4.5 million with zero dollars in dead cap money next year, so he’s as good as gone in Foxborough.

Joe Mixon, RB CIN

The 2017 draft pick is a dynasty fan-favorite, but the Bengals can save $11 million next year by releasing him; he hasn’t really lived up to the expectations many placed upon him coming into the league.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

The Titans’ Henry is due to earn $25 million, with a dead cap number of only $6 million. After carrying the ball 681 times over the last two seasons, it’s likely the Titans continue to grind him into the dirt, and we see that number climb over 1,000 over three seasons a year from now. History tells us, players tend to fall apart after a workload like that, and the Titans might move on from Henry. What kind of market will there be for a 28-year-old with something like 1,100 touches in three years?

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Zeke has a monster contract, but the Cowboys can get out of it in a year, shedding his $50 million salary and remaining on the hook for a measly $6.7 million in dead cap money. There is no way he doesn’t restructure or move on at some point.

Aaron Jones, GB RB

The newly-signed Jones has an out built into his deal, but it only saves the team $10 million over two years, so unless Jones’ performance falls off a cliff, he’ll likely play out his deal, but be aware Jones may be the odd man out if the Pack find themselves in salary cap hell in the next few years.

Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

Even with five years remaining on his deal, in two years, the Vikings can cut bait, incurring a hit of only $6 million in dead cap while shedding Cook’s remaining $27 million in salary as he turns 28 and has had health concerns going back to his college days.

Team Needs Ahead of The NFL Draft

Depending on which websites you look at, it’s hard to definitively say who needs to address the running back position in the 2021 NFL draft. The two consensus picks are the Steelers and Falcons. To a lesser extent, the Cardinals, the Dolphins, and the Jets are other popular landing spots for rookie ball carriers as well. Personally, after going through contracts and depth charts, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Denver, Houston, Tennessee, Carolina, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Washington address the position as well. The players most likely to be affected by the draft are as follows (in no particular order):

• Myles Gaskin, RB MIA
• Tevin Coleman, RB NYJ
• Benny Snell, RB PIT
• David Johnson, RB HOU
• Mark Ingram, RB HOU
• Phillip Lindsay, RB HOU
• Derrick Henry, RB TEN
• Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
• JD McKissic, RB WAS
• Mike Davis, RB ATL
• Chase Edmonds, RB AZ
• Jeff Wilson Jr, RB SF
• Raheem Mostert, RB SF

These are all players I’d be looking to move ahead of the NFL draft if I could.

Stand-Outs to Ship Out

Seven players check all of the above boxes and should be seen as sell-now options who should be shopped immediately by all non-contending teams.

• David Johnson, RB HOU
• Mark Ingram, RB HOU
• Phillip Lindsay, RB HOU
• Derrick Henry, RB TEN
• Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
• JD McKissic, RB WAS
• Raheem Mostert, RB SF

Slightly below this tier, some players just missed checking all of the boxes, but still should be considered strong sell options as well.

• James White, RB NE
• Sony Michel, RB NE
• Gus Edwards, RB BAL
• Aaron Jones, RB GB
• Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
• Leonard Fournette, RB TB
• Mike Davis, RB ATL

Trade Finder

So, if the above 14 players are the most likely players to fall off the fantasy radar in the next few seasons, what can dynasty owners expect to get in return for them? I went through the amazing DLF trade finder to see what you can ask for in return.

David Johnson, RB HOU

It looked like a third-round rookie pick or a second and fourth would be the return on DJ, but some trades stand out as bigger wins than I expected to find. He still has some name value, so if there is an RB needy team in your league, you might be able to recoup some value.

Mark Ingram, RB HOU

Phillip Lindsay, RB HOU

Ingram and Lindsay seem to have very similar values, and this trade is a perfect example. They both seem to be in that 2.10-3.12 range in value.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

Henry might be the crown jewel among this group. He’s coming off two monster seasons, and many people still love him. He’s going straight up for first-round picks, and deals like this make your team stronger and younger at two positions.

Melvin Gordon, RB DEN

There is some wild variance in Gordon trades. Second-round picks and fifth-round picks straight up. Trading for Aaron Rodgers in single-QB leagues, combined with Damien Harris for a first, a throw-in piece in large multi-player deals, whichever way you lean, his value varies wildly.

JD McKissic, RB WAS

A late-second or early-third seem to be the expected return, but if you’re looking for some random upside guys in return, there are many types of deals.

Raheem Mostert, RB SF

Mostert seems to be a throw-in who can get a deal done when packaged with picks if you’re looking to upgrade the running back position. I would smash accept the below deal.

James White, RB NE

The best deal I saw was for the 3.08. Hopefully, White gets off to a strong start in the passing game, and you can try to get a 2022 pick in return. If you’re desperate for roster space, I guess you can roll the dice with those types of deals despite the limited success rate of those late third-round picks.

Sony Michel, RB NE

The deals for Sony look an awful lot like the deals for James White. I’d gladly take a third-round pick for Michel, though. At least White is a proven asset in PPR leagues.

Gus Edwards, RB BAL

Edwards seems to be nothing more than a throw-in piece in multi-player deals. In one of the few straight-up Edwards-for-a-pick deals, I found this for the 4.11. At that price, I’ll happily hold and hope Edwards sees an increase in touches with Mark Ingram’s departure.

Aaron Jones, RB GB

Surprisingly, people aren’t paying too much for Jones. Considering He’s scored 30 touchdowns in the last two seasons and will likely top 50 receptions in 2021, I’d want more back than most Jones owners are getting. This was the best deal I found, and it’s not enough for me.

Dalvin Cook, RB MIN

If I can get a deal like this for Cook, I’ll pull the trigger every time. Be on the lookout for unreasonable Vikings fans and dangle something like this in front of them.

Leonard Fournette, RB TB

Many of the Fournette deals involve a second-round pick coming back. Prior to writing this. I threw that offer out a number of times looking to acquire Fournette, and I was rejected every single time, so good luck to you, hopefully, you can make it happen.

Mike Davis, RB ATL

Davis hasn’t retained any value after a surprising 2020 season. He might be a hold at this point, as he primarily seems to be a throw-in pick in deals like this.

Running backs are in demand more than ever, and despite the proliferation of running back committees, it sure seems like there is a running back arms race in all of my leagues. With demand for running backs in nearly all leagues, Now may be the time to try to move on from the above players – this is especially true if you know other owners are desperate to fill their RB depth chart. Even if it seems like you’re getting ripped off a bit now, a third-round pick today is better than a fourth or fifth-round pick next year, as I suspect we’re going to see the majority of these players fall off the fantasy map within the next few seasons.

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John DiBari

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Like a true degenerate, John has over 20 years of fantasy experience across all sports. Nowadays he primarily focuses on dynasty and redraft football, fantasy golf, and fantasy hockey and has written about each across multiple platforms for nearly 5 years. He loves rookie mock drafts and can always find a negative, pessimistic angle on all your favorite players.

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