20/20: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR USC
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2021 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1. Player Name: Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. College: USC
3. Height/Weight: 5’11” and 195 pounds
4. Birthdate: October 24, 1999 (21)
5. Class: Junior
6. Basic college stats: It did not take long for St. Brown to produce in college. As a true freshman, he caught 60 passes for 750 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
This is impressive for a freshman but even more so when considering the following: First, he started the year at just 18 years old. Second, his 60 receptions led the team and his 750 receiving yards were just eight shy of the team leader, Michael Pittman, a junior at the time who would go on to be a second-round NFL draft selection (Indianapolis Colts). Finally, by surpassing the 20% team market share metric, he qualified as a freshman year breakout, a solid predictor of fantasy success.
He posted even better numbers as a sophomore then appeared in just six games in USC’s shortened 2020 season, but in those games produced at a clip that projects to another 1,000-yard season with a full schedule.
7. NFL draft round projection: St. Brown is projected as a second-round NFL draft pick. This makes sense. His profile is well-rounded but not so elite as to merit first-round consideration. At 5’11” and 195 pounds, he is athletic and explosive but not freaky or generational.
8. Current NFL comp: I liken St. Brown to Robert Woods. Physically, both players are in the 6’0”, 200-pound range. They are athletic but lack elite top-end speed. Both had similar prospect metrics coming out of college. Woods had a 98th-percentile breakout age and St. Brown is in the 93rd percentile, with middle-of-the-road dominator ratings (55th and 60th percentile) and low yards per catch percentiles (seventh and 12th).
Please note we do not mention that both attended USC as that fact is irrelevant when comparing players years apart.
9. Best possible destination: Like Woods, St. Brown may not project as a team’s clear alpha WR1 but could thrive as a WR2 or 1b in a high-volume passing offense. In that vein, Green Bay or New Orleans could make sense, where he could amass sufficient volume as the second option behind an established WR1.
10. Worst possible destination: It is difficult to project St. Brown as a target hog WR1. Subpar destinations would therefore be low-volume offenses that struggle to support multiple fantasy producers, yet have a need at the position. Such destinations include the Jets, Giants and Titans.
11. Best current skill: Adjusting to the ball. St Brown possesses good body control and is adept at adjusting to the ball and securing the catch. This, combined with surprising strength for his size, makes him effective in contested catch situations. As an example, see this play from his four-touchdown performance against Washington State.
Throw it up and let Amon-Ra St. Brown go get it
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 7, 2020
12. Skill that needs to be improved: This is nitpicking – but working against the press. Per Pro Football Focus, St. Brown saw press coverage just 148 times in three years at USC. However, he possesses adequate strength, quickness, suddenness, and technique to allay major concerns in this area.
13. Current rookie ADP: He is a big-time value with a rookie ADP of 17th, projecting as a mid-second round rookie pick between Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard. In superflex, his value holds steady at 18th among rookies, between Oklahoma State wide receiver Tylan Wallace and Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson. This is a bargain for someone with his resume.
14. Projected dynasty value: St. Brown comes in at 117th overall in DLF’s startup dynasty ADP. This puts him at WR57 among fellow rookie wide receivers Tylan Wallace (112 overall), Florida’s Kadarius Toney (115), and North Carolina’s Dyami Brown (130). His superflex ADP gets pushed down about 20 spots to 136th overall among veterans including Michael Gallup, DeVante Parker and Gabriel Davis.
15. Age: As noted earlier, he is still just 21 years old and will not turn 22 until more than a month into his rookie season.
16. Complete resume: He has a complete resume going back to his days as a prep recruit. He was ranked as the nation’s number 11 recruit across all positions as a senior at the powerhouse Mater Dei program in Anaheim, CA.
Courtesy of 247Sports.
Devy diehards will remember his torrid tear through the recruiting camp circuit during his senior year. He was uncoverable at every event and displayed the confident mentality we like to see in a wide receiver.
Top247 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown loses a shoe, still ticketed for the end zone: https://t.co/5VFqaXAajB #Stanford #USC #ND #Michigan #Buckeyes pic.twitter.com/Sy6ArB3p6z
— Steve Wiltfong (@SWiltfong247) July 2, 2017
Here is another, longer video just for fun.
Who has the best QB-RB-WR combo in college football? @rivalsmike has former five-star Amon-Ra St. Brown and his USC teammates on his list. https://t.co/jt6vuRbHYt pic.twitter.com/3kfsbJnKxS
— Rivals (@Rivals) May 18, 2020
17. Metrics darling: From high school through three years at USC, St. Brown has built an impressive resume that deserves second-round NFL draft capital and, frankly, first-round dynasty rookie draft capital, though he currently projects as a mid-second round dynasty rookie.
The DLF College Market Share App.
18. Highlight creator: Going back to his days as a prep, St. Brown has had a flair for the dramatic. Expect him to create at least a few highlight-worthy plays as an NFL rookie to insulate his value.
Big fan of Amon-Ra St. Brown. One of the more technically sound WRs in this class. He’s physical in blocking game, punt return ability, and position versatility lining up inside and outside. He’s got NFL pedigree as well.
Early Day 2 guy if not higher. https://t.co/VhChKDltvs
— Ray G (@RayGQue) January 2, 2021
19. High ceiling, high floor: It is not one or the other in this case. St. Brown is not a boom or bust prospect. Rather, it is easy to see a top-36 dynasty value as his floor, yet he has enough upside to be much more than that. With a mid-second round rookie ADP, he presents a favorable risk-reward profile.
20. Did you know: You probably recognize Amon-Ra as the younger brother of Green Bay Packers wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, but did you know his father, John Brown, was a two-time Mr. Universe and three-time Mr. World bodybuilder in the 1980s?
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- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
