IDP Off-Season Outlook: NFC West
As we near the start of the new league year and the start of free agency on March 17, the DLF IDP team is going around the league to take a look at each team’s rosters, moves and needs headed into the NFL Draft and 2021 season. It’s our hope that this exercise will provide you with valuable information for off-season moves and startup drafts.
Next up: the NFC West.
Arizona Cardinals
Salary cap situation
With an announced cap floor of $180 million-plus $5 million in carryover from previous seasons, at the time of this writing Arizona was a little more than $12 million under the cap. That’s not great considering two of the top three corners from 2020 are free agents (Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick) in addition to franchise legend Larry Fitzgerald, starting running back Kenyan Drake and starting tight end Dan Arnold. We could definitely see cap maneuvers such as an extension for Chandler Jones and a restructure for left tackle DJ Humphries.
Coaching staff continuity
Coordinator Vance Joseph and the rest of the defensive staff remain intact.
Edge
Chandler Jones (31) has a cap hit of almost $21 million in the final year of his contract, so even though he’s coming off biceps surgery, an extension seems likely in order to create cap space. Legends play out their careers in Arizona, and JJ Watt is the latest in a line that includes Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James and Emmitt Smith. The Texans great recently signed a two-year contract.
Watt’s entrance likely means an exit for free agents Haason Reddick and Markus Golden. Dennis Gardeck and Kylie Fitts are also free agents but could return on cheap deals to complement backups Zach Allen and the disappointing Devon Kennard, both of whom are under contract for the next two seasons.
Interior defensive line
Jordan Phillips will turn 29 just after the start of the season and is coming off a massively disappointing first season in the desert. He actually was effective prior to suffering a hamstring injury in week seven; he struggled to shake the injury and ended up on injured reserve twice because of it. Barring a restructure of the two years remaining on his pricey contract, he’ll need a good 2021 in order to keep his job in 2022.
Nose tackle Leki Fotu, fresh off a decent debut, is the next best returner, so there’s work to be done at this position. Veterans Corey Peters, Angelo Blackson and Domata Peko are all free agents.
Off-ball linebacker
Jordan Hicks (29) is locked in for two more seasons to provide the steady veteran presence to the second level. The wild card of course is 2020 first-rounder Isaiah Simmons, who struggled early in his rookie season but showed flashes as a sideline-to-sideline presence with coverage ability as the season went along. I’m anticipating he’ll move into a three-down role with veteran De’Vondre Campbell entering free agency. Tanner Vallejo is also a free agent, so the depth needs to be addressed.
Safety
Stud Budda Baker is locked up long-term. The Thompson twins – Jalen (strong) and Deionte (free) – are both halfway through their rookie deals. And yes, I made that up; there’s no relation. Chris Banjo is a free agent and a candidate to return on a cheap one-year contract.
Dynasty targets, fades and holds
If OK adding older pass rushers to help your contending teams, Jones (an outside linebacker in non-true position formats), Watt and even Phillips – if he’s classified as a defensive tackle – are worth considering adding on the cheap. Hicks has an LB3 floor and is worth tacking on to larger deals, but Simmons is the linebacker to check on if his owners have soured on him after a slow start to his career. You’ll probably have to surrender a high second-round pick to land him though. I don’t particularly like paying that kind of price for linebackers, but I do recognize the big upside. Baker is the only safety with any value and you love him if you have him, but I can’t advocate for paying a hefty price for him in a trade.
Los Angeles Rams
Salary cap situation
With a $180 million cap floor and $5.7 million in carryover from previous seasons, the Rams were a little more than $34.5 million over the salary cap at the time of this writing. They’re of course in this situation due to dead money incurred with the trade of Jared Goff and the release of Todd Gurley.
It looks daunting at first glance, but they can pretty easily get under the cap with a combination of moves such as an extension for new quarterback Matthew Stafford, and/or restructures for stars such as Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
While manageable, the cap situation means you won’t see the Rams re-sign safety John Johnson III, or bring in any other big-name free agents.
Coaching staff continuity
Stepping in for new Chargers head coach Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator is Raheem Morris, the former interim head coach for Atlanta. Morris has stated that he doesn’t plan big changes in the Rams’ scheme, but he’s not from the Vic Fangio coaching tree, so it’s fair to expect some differences.
There’s some consistency at the position coach levels. Eric Henderson returns as defensive line coach, while Chris Shula takes over as linebackers coach (he has served as outside linebackers coach for the past two seasons). Ejiro Evero, who coached safeties in 2020, was elevated to secondary coach.
Edge
Both Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam are free agents. Terrell Lewis, whose rookie season was mired by COVID-19 and a troublesome knee, and Justin Hollins are the Rams’ top outside linebackers under contract right now. Depending on how much Los Angeles is willing to dent future cap years, it’s conceivable Floyd returns, but it’s more likely Ebukam returns on a cheap deal and a draft pick joins the group. It’s a big opportunity for Lewis, but his knee needs to cooperate.
Interior defensive line
The NFL’s best defensive player, Donald, is likely going to see a good chunk of his 2021 salary converted to a signing bonus to help with this year’s cap. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is under contract for four more seasons. Michael Brockers (30) is likely entering his final season in Los Angeles, and Sebastian Joseph-Day is in the final year of rookie deal. A’Shawn Robinson is back, and would see an uptick in snaps if free agent Morgan Fox signs elsewhere.
Off-ball linebacker
A ho-hum group of Micah Kiser, Troy Reeder and Kenny Young are all in the final year of their contracts. Further down the depth chart, Travin Howard has already signed his exclusive rights tender for 2021. A draft pick may join this party to provide a future option.
Safety
Johnson is a free agent and headed elsewhere for good money. Even without him, this position is in good shape with Taylor Rapp (two years remaining on his rookie contract) and rising sophomores Jordan Fuller and Terrell Burgess.
The Athletic’s Jordan Rodrigue recently penned an interesting tidbit about Fuller, saying the staff expects him to “command the defense in a similar role to Johnson’s.” I think that means he’ll be calling the plays for the defense, but it could also mean he’ll be rotating up toward the line of scrimmage more often pre-snap. Burgess, who was drafted to play a big nickel/dime role, only got in half of a rookie season before getting hurt.
Dynasty targets, fades and holds
I would love to tell you to go buy Lewis on the cheap, but he seems to have a chronic knee issue. For contending teams, Donald is worth checking in on. He’s hitting 30, so the price should be dropping, but even so he should have a couple of great seasons remaining. One of Kiser or Reeder is going to be a valuable fantasy linebacker for one more season. I thought Reeder was just as good as Kiser when he stepped in as an injury replacement, so he’s worth grabbing if he’s on your free agent wire. It’s probably still Kiser’s job though.
Fuller was obviously a major surprise as a rookie, and I figured him to play a similar role in 2021, but maybe he’ll be a stronger tackle presence going forward. I don’t see Fuller replicating Johnson’s production, but he may be a fantasy riser. He’s certainly worth checking into as a second or third piece in a larger trade, or picking up for a reasonable rookie draft pick. You could make the same argument for Rapp, who should see starter’s snaps with Johnson leaving.
San Francisco 49ers
Salary cap situation
I couldn’t find details of the recent one-year contracts given to safety Marcell Harris and tight end Ross Dwelley, so this number is fluid, but it looks as if the 49ers are (at the time of this writing) in the vicinity of $20 million under the cap. They’ll clear some more space with some work along the offensive line, and they’ll need to as left tackle Trent Williams and their top seven cornerbacks are all free agents. San Francisco also has ten draft picks, giving management lots of flexibility. I could see a trade or two for veteran depth.
Coaching staff continuity
Following Robert Saleh’s departure to New York, DeMeco Ryans was promoted from inside linebackers coach to defensive coordinator. There are some new faces – former Giants and Cardinals defensive coordinator James Bettcher is a senior defensive assistant. Johnny Hollard will coach the linebackers after previously focusing on outside linebackers. Cory Undlin, the Lions’ defensive coordinator in 2020, will coach the secondary.
Edge
Nick Bosa, who tore an ACL early in the 2020 season, has two seasons remaining on his rookie deal and should be back to man one of the edge spots. Arik Armstead (27) is on the other side with three “realistic” seasons remaining on his contract. Kerry Hyder, one of the nice breakout stories from last season, is a free agent, and I’ll reckon that the 49ers would like to bring him back.
Then there’s expensive pass rush specialist Dee Ford, who missed all but one game with a serious back injury. He’ll be 30 years old in 2021 and no one seems to know if he’ll even be able to play, yet San Francisco may restructure his contract to lower his $20 million cap hit. The likes of Ronald Blair, Ezekiel Ansah, Dion Jordan and Jordan Willis are all free agents.
This team needs rotational depth even if Hyder returns. I’ve seen pass rush mocked to the 49ers in the first round, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they go that route.
Interior defensive line
There’s really only one name to know from a fantasy perspective, and of course it’s Javon Kinlaw. He showed promise during his rookie season and should only continue to improve. Rotational backups Kentavius Street and Kevin Givens are back for 2021. Total bust Solomon Thomas – it’s hard to believe he was the third overall pick in 2017 – is a free agent, as is backup DJ Jones. The front office will need to find another decent piece to join this group as a complement to Kinlaw.
Off-ball linebacker
One of the top to-do list items this off-season should be an extension for Fred Warner, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal. He’s one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL, and he’s about to be a rich man. Dre Greenlaw is halfway through his rookie deal, and is coming into his own as a very good NFL linebacker. Azeez Al-Shaair is a decent player as well, and he’s back for one more season as the third linebacker. Little-used backup Joe Walker is a free agent; either Walker or someone of his ilk will step in as the fourth ‘backer.
Safety
Versatile veteran Jimmy Ward (30) has two years remaining on his contract. He’s a darn good player but not much of a fantasy asset since he spends most of his time as the single high safety, in two-deep looks or as an inside coverage safety. Jaquiski Tartt, always the fantasy disappointment, looks likely to leave via free agency, leaving the strong safety role to Tarvarius Moore, Marcell Harris, or a rookie. Moore is reportedly bulking up this off-season in anticipation of playing more strong. Harris recently signed a one-year deal to return as a backup safety/linebacker hybrid. Obi Melifonwu, Jared Mayden and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles all return as depth pieces.
Dynasty targets, fades and holds
I’m not seeing a ton of moves here for fantasy. If you wanted Bosa, you should have gone after him just after he got hurt, as he’s probably not coming at any sort of discount any longer. Armstead has always been a decent depth piece, but nothing more. Take anything you can get for Ford, especially once news of a restructure hits. His back issue sounds like bad business. Kinlaw is the only interior lineman worth owning, and while he’s a rising asset (especially in defensive tackle-premium formats), his owners are surely aware of that so there’s no discount rate.
I rather like Greenlaw as an ascending asset, but like Kinlaw, his owners are aware of his value. Warner’s an established LB1, so once again you have to be willing to pay to get him. Al-Shaair is a linebacker you could consider adding off of your waiver wire as a lottery ticket in case of injury to Warner. He’d step into a productive role. Likewise, if you have the roster space, Moore is worth a flyer in case he indeed lands the starting safety spot opposite Ward.
Seattle Seahawks
Salary cap situation
Seattle only carries over $956,000 in unused cap from previous seasons, and with a $180 million cap floor, the team is less than $5 million under the cap. With both Shaquille Griffin and Quinton Dunbar entering free agency, cornerback is a position that will be addressed in addition to the offensive and defensive lines. A restructure of Russell Wilson’s deal (no, not a trade) would help, as would extensions for several of the defensive veterans listed below.
Coaching staff continuity
Head coach Pete Carroll and coordinator Ken Norton Jr are back to lead the defense.
Edge
Seattle loves a big edge rotation, and you can expect that to continue. Carlos Dunlap, who came over from Cincinnati in a trade last season, can return for one year at $14 million. They traded for him and he was good in his role, so you have to think he’s back. It’s possible, even at 32 years old, he gets an extension to bring down his cap number. Alton Robinson showed well as a rookie. Classmate Darrell Taylor, who didn’t see the field in 2020 due to injury, still holds a lot of promise.
Disappointing 2019 first-rounder LJ Collier returns as an outside-inside pass rusher, as does Rasheem Green, who enters the final year of his rookie contract. Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin are free agents, and you just know Mayowa is going to be back.
Interior defensive line
Jarran Reed, who can play five-tech or three-tech, has another year remaining on his deal. The 27-year-old is a likely extension candidate. Everyone else – Poona Ford, Damontre Moore, Bryan Mone, and Jonathan Bullard – is a free agent. I’m banking on two or three from that group returning.
Off-ball linebacker
This may be Wagner’s final year in Seattle – he can be cut prior to 2022 for a cap savings of roughly $16 million. I’m not sure that will happen, as he’s still a really good player, but it’s worth noting. KJ Wright is of course a free agent, and whether or not he returns will determine the immediate fantasy value of rising sophomore Jordyn Brooks. The 2020 first-round pick acquitted himself well as a rookie but would again play third fiddle to Wagner and Wright. Cody Barton and Ben Burr-Kirven are halfway through their rookie deals. I still like Barton for the post-Wagner era, but he may hit free agency before Wags hangs ‘em up or moves on.
Safety
After trading a king’s ransom for Jamal Adams last off-season, Seattle looks like it has to extend the sack-happy safety rather than risk letting him walk as a free agent after 2021. Deep safety Quandre Diggs (29) also has one year remaining on his deal and could get an extension to lower his current cap number. The depth is good: 2019 second-rounder Marquise Blair returns after an injury-riddled season, and Ugo Amadi is halfway through his rookie deal. Backup strong safety Ryan Neal is a free agent.
Dynasty targets, fades and holds
The big rotation at the edge makes it hard to get excited about going after any of them, but Dunlap can still be productive and can be had at a bargain-basement price. If you liked Taylor as a college prospect, you could determine when the rookie edge rushers would come off the board in your league, then trade a draft pick in that range for Taylor. Reed still projects as a low-end DT1 in tackle-premium leagues, and he’s not going to break the bank to acquire.
Contending teams should see if Wagner is on a shaky roster. I’ve seen trades announced in the Twitter-verse with Wagner going for a third-round rookie pick. That, friends, is the type of offer I like to see pop up in my inbox. I really like Brooks, and there’s a window to add him at a discount if Wright re-signs with Seattle. Just don’t bank on starting him in 2021 if Wright is back in the fold. I’m holding on to my Barton shares for the time being, although I’m losing hope that he’ll ever return value due to the linebackers in front of him. Due to his big-play ability, Adams is a premium asset. I don’t mind selling any shares though for a fair return.
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