Year Three Value: Three Third-Year Players to Buy
The third year in a player’s career has typically become the do-or-die season in terms of fantasy value. It has also become the last chance for some to break into fantasy superstardom or, for others, to solidify themselves as middling fantasy contributors.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen several breakouts from third-year players, headlined by Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley the last two seasons. While those are apparent outliers, it is proof superstars can be found later in their careers.
Damien Harris, RB NE
Coming into the 2019 NFL Draft, the dynasty community was high on Harris, myself included, but landing in New England tanked his value. The Patriots had selected Sony Michel in the first round of the draft in 2018, and he was coming off a very productive rookie season, so Harris’ path to playing time was murky at best. Fast forward to 2020, and Harris seemed primed to break out and was even a hot trade target in dynasty circles. We all know how that played out – Harris was a flex play when Michel got hurt (shocking) and surprisingly wasn’t relevant when Michel was active.
In the games without Michel, Harris was on pace for a markedly better season on the ground and roughly 160 points in PPR, which would have been enough for an RB30 finish – this is notable because Michel is a cut candidate this off-season, and Harris could have the rushing load to himself. The Patriots value consistency over everything, and if there is one thing Harris is, it’s consistent. When looking at his True yards per carry, he ranked sixth in the NFL. Even if Michel doesn’t get cut, Harris has shown enough talent that he could win the lead role regardless of Michel’s availability.
While RB30 doesn’t jump off the page, the Patriots should be moving on from Cam Newton, which will undoubtedly lead to an uptick in goal-line carries. This year Harris only saw three carries inside the five-yard line, while Cam dominated the Patriots offense with 22 carries inside the same area. Even with a modest uptick in goal-line carries, Harris could sneak into the RB2 conversation. In addition to an increase in red zone rushing, we can expect lighter fronts to rush against. Due to Newton’s rushing threat and his inability to complete a pass, Harris faced the second-highest stacked box rate in the league. A lighter front should only highlight his ability to create on the ground. He is currently being drafted as the RB32 and can be bought for cheap. While he may never have an RB1 season, there is still plenty of value in mid-tier running backs. He’s a great flex candidate with RB2 upside who should be added to your bench.
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
I’m going to call my shot now – Johnson will be the next third-year wide receiver to break into the top ten. After 2019, the hype was already starting to build after his solid (yet unspectacular) rookie season, and he paid off in a big way for those who bought in. He finished as the WR21 while playing in 15 games (and leaving three others with under 50% of the snaps) in 2020.
When we remove the three games in which he played under 50% of the snaps, two injury-filled games, and one benching, his numbers look even more favorable. His 16-game pace for the 12-game sample would put him at a stat line of 107-1,138-9, which would result in 273.4 points and a WR6 finish. It is worth noting his target pace was 173 over 16 games (which isn’t realistic), but the good news is he had become a favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger almost immediately.
We need to note the Steelers offense will have a different feel next year now that Randy Fichtner no longer calls the shots. Big Ben isn’t getting any younger, so we could see even further regression in quarterback play. However, as long as Ben is still under center, we can lock Johnson in for 130+ targets next season. It’s also worth noting JuJu Smith-Schuster is a free agent and could be moving on from the Steelers – this would vacate another 128 targets and nine touchdowns. Obviously, Johnson won’t absorb all of those targets or touchdowns; however, there is a clear opportunity to stay at a steady target level and a chance to grow his touchdown production. Given his current price on DLF, you can add him for a late first in superflex leagues. At worst, you’re getting a mid-tier WR2, and at best, you’re getting the next breakout wide receiver.
Dawson Knox, TE BUF
We’re always searching for the next breakout tight end, and Knox can be just that over the next two years. There are indicators Knox saw his role grow in the Bills offense after their bye week. Before that week 11 bye, he was on a 16-game pace for 21-290-0, which is just abysmal. However, after their bye week, something seemed to click. His full-season pace “skyrocketed” to 42-477-8. As his target share rose, so did his production. Now that seems like a given, but we’ve seen plenty of players stay stagnant regardless of workload, so that’s still encouraging.
He would have finished as the TE15 on the season at that pace, which isn’t necessarily impressive. However, tight ends take time to develop. Entering his third year, he will have another year of chemistry built up with Josh Allen, and more importantly, Beasley and John Brown (who is likely to be cut anyway) will be another year further on the wrong side of 30. At only 24, Knox still has the athletic ability to produce at a high level; it’s now just a matter of seeing the target share necessary to make it happen.
Most inspiring for Knox has been his red-zone usage. After the bye week, he was tied for fifth in red-zone targets, but even more importantly, he was tied for first in targets inside the five – that kind of usage tends to lead to double-digit touchdown seasons and, in turn, TE1 finishes. While he may not offer the consistency the top-end tight ends have, he carries the touchdown upside needed on a week-to-week basis. The reason I am so keen on acquiring Knox is he won’t cost much in terms of dynasty assets, which means you won’t feel obligated to force him into your lineup every week. I am more than willing to acquire him and play him based on matchups until we finally see him break out.
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